Saturday 8 March 2014

TRADE SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA ?


The choice of sanctions against Russia for invading the Ukraine with an army of 30 or 40 thousand armed soldiers, is not easy.

Russia's excuse for invading Ukraine is to protect Ethnic Russians who are considered to be in danger in the East !  The simple fact that Ukraine does not even have the means to start a civil war is glossed over ! 

It seems that Russia wants to recover Eastern Ukraine !  To this end Russia is now in place with its army to do just that !  Added to this no one in the West or even in Russia really wants a war !

Currently any trade sanctions would have little effect !  Russia with its Exports is the biggest supplier to the EU and with its Imports is also the biggest customer of the EU !  In particular Russia supplies Siberian Gas to several EU countries.  The biggest single EU trading partner of Russia is Germany.

Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, appears to be more than just reticent at the moment.  If the West imposes Trade sanctions on Russia, Putin's riposte would clearly be to impose Trade sanctions on the EU and this would hurt and penalise Germany first and foremost ! 

If the EU then wants to help a bankrupt but Independent West Ukraine to join the EU (after the East has been annexed by Russia), it would first of all have to provide West Ukraine with finance to help it to reorganise itself !  This also makes Merkel hesitant.  Will Germany again have to pay ?

At the moment it would seem there is only one simple sanction which could make Putin think twice.  A world-wide ban which prevents any and all Russian Sportsmen from competing against any non Russian sportsman anywhere !

Putin will then have to answer questions from his electorate !

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