Wednesday 28 January 2015

GREECE : A SUBSTANTIAL DEBT WRITE-OFF ?

Everyone now anxiously awaits the conclusion of EUROZONE meetings to learn whether there will be a substantial write-off of the 245 Billion Euro loans to Greece.   This is what Greece needs to be able to reorganise itself and to put the economy back on a sound footing !  It is what everyone really expects ! 

What will happen if the EUROZONE refuses such a write-off ? Would other countries not also want debt write-downs ? That would become a dangerous precedent, now and in the future !  

Of course the EUROZONE must be positive and at least offer something to help Greece !  Would this not be to suspend all repayments for... 5 or 10 years with no interest being charged   on the debt for that period ? 

Would this not save the face of everyone in the EUROZONE ? It would avoid having to consider immediate changes to Treaties for this and other current, unconnected problems !

However Greece and Alexis Tsipras, the Prime Minister, would feel helpless with such a decision !  He would then lack the means to introduce all the measures he promised before being elected !  With all the oustanding debt, Banks would never be prepared to lend more to the Government !  

The only open option left for Tsipras, would be to leave the  EUROZONE, adopt the Drachma and make a hefty devaluation ! This must also include the devaluation of Euro liabilities !

After this he should have the means to reinvigorate Greece as he promised he would !  If he is even then, not allowed to achieve his promised objectives in the framework of the EU, Greeks will again start protests in the Streets and will want to become independent of the EU ! 

Greeks want to start living again ! 

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