GREECE: WHY NO MORATORIUM FOR GREECE ?

Everyone knows that Greece is BANKRUPT and cannot at present envisage repaying the loans of 320 Billion Euros it owes to the EUROZONE, or even the interest on the Loans, in the foreseeable future.

The obvious question is "Why do the EUROZONE and its BANKERS not propose a MORATORIUM of 10, 15 or 20 years to Greece ?"  

A moratorium which cancels the interest which is due and delays the repayment of the Debt, would give Greece the "breathing space" it needs to reorganise its Economy and to make it viable again.

Greece could then avoid the "Grexit", which no one really wants and then stay in the EUROZONE instead of having to adopt its former Drachma as its currency.

Mistakes were made in the past but this is not the time to hold a post mortem !  Germany and other creditors do not want to record a Financial loss but a "Provision for Exceptional Risk" should already have been booked in previous years !   This "Risk" is not an "Operating Risk" on normal operations and would not affect GNP calculations !

If Greece is forced to leave the EURO and EUROZONE it has no option but to make a hefty devaluation and revalue all its national liabilities.  This would also entail a renouncement of the EUROZONE debts ! 

This would temporarily be a painful exercise for Greeks, but it would also create a painful precedent in the EUROZONE and it could have negative reverberations on the International Money Markets ! 

Would a MORATORIUM not have been a better solution for everyone concerned ?  Would Tsipras and Greece not accept such a solution, even with some conditions ?

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UPCOMING EVENTS IN FIFA !

It is not easy to keep track of what is going on in FIFA particularly with the twin investigations into FIFA by the Swiss and USA Judicial Authorities.  However, FIFA does have meetings scheduled which are identified below.
      
A FIFA Executive Meeting will take place in Zurich on July 20, 2015.  It will probably prepare the Agenda for the Extraordinary Congress which is expected to be held in December.  It is at that Congress, probably, that the "vote of confidence" urging Blatter to continue as President and which he so dearly wants, could take place.

If Blatter wins this vote then he will remain as President.  If he does not win the vote of confidence, he has said   he will resign as President.  The Assembly will then probably agree a date (in March 2016) for the election of a New President in accordance with the FIFA rules . 

This procedure will take at least three months.  It is not clear whether Blatter himself would not also want to be a Candidate again !   FIFA is his life and there is work to be done !

SUBSEQUENT EVENTS.

The foregoing programme could easily be jeopardised by unexpected events.  The findings in the ongoing investigations into alleged irregularities in FIFA could produce surprises, particularly if more people are  suspected of irregularities !   Likewise foreseen events could also be cancelled or changed in the "FIFA World" of operations. 

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GREXIT:UN GRAND SAUT DANS L'INCONNU

 

 

 

 

 

Le "GREXIT" vu par MARIN notre caricaturiste

TSIPRAS IN FAVOUR OF A "GREXIT" !

What the EUROZONE negotiators feared most has now become a reality !  Tsipras has announced a Referendum will be held next Sunday, July 5, 2015. 

In addressing the Greek Parliament, he said that the current EUROZONE propositions should be refused.  A "NO" vote implies that Greece would be obliged to leave the EURO and EUROZONE !

This Blog in its Article (1) on June 16, 2015 clearly stated that a moratorium by the EUROZONE, of capital  repayments coupled with a cancellation of interest during 10,15 or 20 years could be a solution to save the faces of all the parties involved in the negotiations !

Through his Twitter Account, Dominique Strauss-Kahn the former President of the International Monetary Fund also suggested yesterday that a Moratorium could have been defined to arrive at a solution. 

Several recent articles in this Blog have clearly pointed out that there would be repercussions for the EUROZONE if a reasonable solution agreeable to Greece was not proposed !  

Angela Merkel and her team cannot just sweep problems like this under the carpet !

(1)  Read : " "Grexit" is the only solution left for Greece !", published June 16, 2015.

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GREECE : A LESSON IN DEMOCRACY ?

Tsipras has rejected the Plan of Financial Aid proposed by the EUROZONE and announced a Referendum on the terms of the Plan.

The Referendum will be held on Sunday, July 5 2015.   This could in fact lead to a "Grexit" !

History is almost repeating itself.  Already in 2011 the then Prime Minister Geoges Papandreou wanted a Referendum on the Financial Plan proposed by the Leaders of the Eurozone.  This led to a change of the Coalition in Greece and the Referendum, which would have been held two months later, was cancelled.

The Referendum on Sunday next week could therefore become a lesson in Democracy for the EUROZONE : it will be the Greek Electors who will decide their own future !

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BLATTER'S PRESIDENTIAL SIEGE CONTINUES !

 
Blatter has now admitted that he "did not" have, never had, any intention of resigning, as almost everyone thought, after hearing his announcement on June 2, 2015, just 4 days after his re-election as President !  He only wanted to put himself and his Office in the hands of the FIFA Congress.

Whatever he said (in French) completely fooled everyone, including the losing candidate in the "Election" on May 29, Prince Ali Bin Al-Hussein, who has said he is prepared to stand again in an Election, if he is asked !      
 
Does all this mean that the Extraordinary Meeting to be held in December 2015 must either "sack him" or "confirm Blatter as President" ?   If he is confirmed he will just carry on as President !   If he is sacked, however, could a new Election take place IMMEDIATELY ?   Would he not want to stand again as a candidate ?

Perhaps the unkindest remark of all is to question openly whether Blatter has not lost his grip on what is and was going on in FIFA ?   Now at the age of 79, after 40 years service in FIFA, is he really the best man to clean up the quagmire of mess in which FIFA now finds itself ? 

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BLATTER UNDECIDED ABOUT VISITING VANCOUVER !

Yesterday this Blog (1) raised the question whether Sepp Blatter would be going to Vancouver to present the Women's World Cup to the winners of the Cup Final on Sunday July 5 ?

After its publication, the Press Association reported that a spokesperson of FIFA had said : "In terms of the Fifa president and the Fifa secretary general, their future travel plans will be confirmed in due course."  A sibylline statement... !

It would seem that it is the twin investigations into FIFA by the American and Swiss Justice Authorities that may prevent Sepp Blatter and/or Jérôme Valcke from going to Vancouver.
     
(1)  Read the article "FIFA Women's World Cup : Will Blatter present the Cup to the Winners ?"

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CAN HOLLANDE EXPECT TO BE RE-ELECTED ?

Early January 2015, after an Islamic attack killed 16 people in the offices of the satirical publication, Charlie Hebdo and in the Cacher Superstore, the popularity of President Hollande in the Polls rose swiftly.   His quick reactions  reassured French citizens. 

Everyone can remember the procession of about 40 Heads of State he invited to Paris.

He has been continuously in the news ever since, on the international stage and also at home in France.   The general impression now is that he has already started a "Pre re-election campaign" for his second 5 year term as President in May 2017 !

Electors do frequently forget or forgive many things but not everything !   His 37 months as  President have not exactly been crowned with success.   He has not delivered on his Election Promises !

In particular, the number of unemployed has risen every month except on four occasions.  There are now 500 000 more unemployed !  Taxes have risen, the number of Government employees has not been trimmed, Central expenses have been transfered to Local Municipalities and some of their State subventions have been cut.  Mayors all over France are livid !

Possible Socialist Party candidates will  certainly expect  a Primary Election to select the Party sponsored Candidate, but what does Hollande think ? 

Hollande did once quite clearly say that, if he did not manage to conquer the spiralling unemployment in France, he would have no chance of being re-elected !  He said that, but is he still really convinced that the number of unemployed will seriously start falling before the end of the year ?  But, which year ? 

That is the question !
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FIFA WOMEN'S WORLD CUP : WILL BLATTER PRESENT THE CUP TO THE WINNERS ?

Will Sepp Blatter, who has not yet resigned and is still the President of FIFA, attend the Final and Closing Ceremony of the 7th Women's World Football Cup in Vancouver on Sunday July 5, 2015 ?

Everyone knows that there are ongoing investigations  into allegations of fraud by certain FIFA executives, but no accusations have been levelled against Blatter who is therefore "clean" !

Blatter has promoted Women's Football and has even changed the FIFA Statutes (see section 30) to permit the election of a Woman onto the FIFA Executive.  Lydia Nsekera of Burundi was elected.  Blatter's presence in Vancouver at the Final would mark a big step forward for Women's football !

It should be noted that there are now Professional players in the women's game of football.  This year in Canada there has already been an attendance of more than 50 000 spectators at one match !  More publicity and televised games can be expected in the future ! 
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ANISH KAPOOR : "DIRTY CORNER"

Anish KAPOOR est un artiste dont les œuvres égayent actuellement les jardins du château de Versailles .                                          

 Le Nôtre  doit se retourner dans sa tombe !

L’une des œuvres s’intitule « Dirty corner ». Ne riez pas, c’est avec vos impôts que tout ceci est mis en place.

Ci dessous,une des réalisations de M. Kapoor et le  dessin de notre illustrateur "MARIN"

 

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WHAT MUST CHANGE TO PROTECT THE EURO ?

The last article in this Blog (1) underlined two conditions to preserve the EURO from speculative attacks and ultimate destruction !

Obviously the EURO must continually and "reasonably" be protected on Foreign Exchange Markets.  However, in this changing Financial World, the Economic principles of the EUROZONE must effectively ensure the prosperity of the ZONE and at the same time deter the hopes of speculators.

These same principles apply for every country which manages its own currency.

What in particular could endanger the EUROZONE ?

1)  The blind application of every economic rule to every country in the ZONE (e.g.  The same rate of Sales tax or TVA).
2)  The use of non-standard principles when valuing long-term liabilities (e.g.  State Pension Liabilities).
3)  The non-definition of acceptable EU principles by the EUROZONE. (e.g.  What non-EU born immigrants can enter ?  What is the definition of a "migrant" in the EU ?)

These are just evident examples of problems   which  need to be addressed, but when will they be programmed to take place ?   Discussions of basic EU principles are urgently necessary, even if some may not always directly concern the EUROZONE and its EURO. 

Finally, would the reactions of the EUROZONE not be more effective if it had a permanent "Board of Directors" ?  Would this not avoid having to convene very hastily, all 19 heads of State so often, as was the case recently with the "Grexit" meetings ?


(1)  Will the EURO last forever ?  It could....but.
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WILL THE EURO LAST FOREVER ? IT COULD .....but

The unending negotiations on "Grexit" provoke doubts over whether the EURO itself will last and if so, for how long.   The EURO was officially became a World currency in the year 2002.  

One could ask the same questions with respect to the US Dollar and the British Pound Sterling, two long standing currencies quoted on all World Foreign Exchange markets for more than 100 years.

After the end of the War in 1945, a worker's average wages in Britain were about five pounds PER WEEK. Today a worker is paid about seven pounds PER HOUR .This proves that there has been a rise in the cost of living !   

The pound sterling today obviously buys less than it did 70 years ago, but it has still retained a reputation of being a "stable" currency because its value was always reasonably protected on Exchange markets.  The same can be said for the US Dollar.
 
If ever the EURO is not, or can no longer be, "sufficiently protected" then it will simply depreciate in value against other currencies which do not decline in value. For example, recently the parity of the EURO was allowed to decline by about 10% to make EUROZONE products more competitive on International markets.   

This means the EURO "could" last for a long time, but ultimately may have to be "restructured" to become the "NEW EURO" if in the EUROZONE economic policies cause, or do not prevent, a deterioration of the National Financial Results in all the countries of the ZONE. 

If this happens, the EURO would be shunned on Financial Markets and lose value if it is not effectively protected.  

There are several countries all over the World which have had to restructure (or fundamentally devalue) their currencies at least once, some several times, particularly in South America !

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"GREXIT OR NOT" : THE LAST CHANCE SALOON !

Two urgent meetings have been organised in Brussels tomorrow by the EUROZONE, for the Finance Ministers and for their Leaders.

The main question to be decided can only be whether an effort can or should be made to avoid the "Grexit" ? 

The cost of a complete write-off of loans to Greece would be at least 250 billion Euros !  But there are other considerations which must be weighed up.  Will Greece accept to stay in the EUROZONE, particularly if there are conditions attached to a complete write-off of their debts ?  How will international Exchange Markets react ?  Will the EURO be attacked ?  

How will national electors react, in Germany, in Greece and elsewhere ?   No politician wants to lose face or provoke unfavourable public reactions at home or abroad !

There seem to be only one possible alternative.  Either the Greek debts are written-off without any conditions and Greece stays in the EUROZONE, or there is a total moratorium on any repayments or interest charges for about 20 years and Greece stays in the EUROZONE. 

If Greece is forced out of the EURO, the country would immediately face huge problems trying to adopt the New Drachma  as its currency.   A Moratorium would therefore seem to be THE solution. In 2035 repaying depreciated EUROS (due to normal inflation) would be less of a burden for Greece ! 

It is a pity that it has taken six months to find a solution, whatever it is !

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EUROZONE STILL HOPES "NO GREXIT" ...but ?

Originally, in January 2015, during the Greek elections, Tsipras said he wanted a significant write-down of the Debts which previous Greek Governments had obtained from the EUROZONE.   

Tsipras clearly said that Greece could not repay the scheduled installments and still have enough money to reorganize the Greek Economy !  There is unemployment of about 30%, not enough tax income and the cost of Pensions payable by the State, is too high.  At the time Tsipras wanted Greece to remain in the EUROZONE.

That was six months ago !  In the meantime there have been no concessions by the EUROZONE except small loans to cover imminent repayments due.  In the meantime, the Greek economy was being bled dry.  It was stagnant !  The money in private Euro Bank Accounts was withdrawn and is hidden to cover a future of rainy days !

Greece can no longer afford to stay in the EUROZONE !  It must declare a Russian style 1917 bankruptcy and refuse to repay foreign debts ! 

If Tsipras now would let Greece stay in the EUROZONE it is tantamount to accepting that Greece will repay the outstanding loans due to the EUROZONE !  This could lead to revolts in Athens, if not a "Civil War" !

If the EUROZONE cannot prevent the "Grexit" other countries like France, Italy and Spain will be watching and counting the cost !  The Financial and Economic rules of the "ZONE" must therefore, be reviewed.  The basic problem is that the ZONE has one central Bank, but 19 different Governments !
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EUROZONE + EU + UNO MUST NOW ACT TO UPDATE TREATIES !

Slowly but surely problems are accumulating, and the very sacred basic principles adopted in peacetime after World War 2, by founders of the EU and the United Nations Organisation (UNO), are now preventing concerted action to be taken to protect citizens !    

How can anyone justify the Policy of "Doing Nothing" when extremist Islamists, in the Middle East and in Africa, simply exterminate human beings and destroy their towns and cities, then occupy their territories, and then, in the name of Allah, try to create an Islamic State ?

For many years UNO has allowed itself to be strangled by the use of Vetoes in the Security Council !  Diplomatic debates are more like sermons from pulpits !  Rarely does a political Leader address the Assembly !  Never do political Leaders participate in a debate there. 

Have Russia and Nato countries made a pact not to interfere in the Middle East ?  Why do they have such vast modern armies ?

When will UNO change its rules ?  Will it only ever have "armies" of "unarmed observers" who are then "hoodwinked" wherever they are allowed to go ?

The World, but the EU in particular at this very moment, has the problem of rising numbers of refugees fleeing from oppression !  Refugees flee with nothing but the hope of being able to live "somewhere" in peace ! 

The EU has, enshrined in its Treaties, the principle of the freedom of movement.  Have EU politicians not noticed that in recent years the "Control of Immigration" has been a leading topic of debates in National Elections ?   Are MEPs still in touch with the local national wishes of electors of their country ?

At this moment "Grexit" is THE problem !  Should the EUROZONE and also the EU change parts of the EU Treaties !  The answer is "YES", but for immigration controls and other matters as well !   The sooner the better !
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EUROZONE NOW PANICS AT PROBABLE "GREXIT" !

Tsipras clearly announced his intentions before he was elected to be Prime Minister on January 25, 2015. 

He wanted a substantial write down of the Greek Debts by the EUROZONE, to enable him and his Government to restructure the Greek Economy and to end the increasing austerity which Greeks had been facing for many years.  

Today the last of countless meetings ended without any agreement.  No debt reductions have ever been  proposed and now Greece has reached the point of "total bankruptcy" !   The economy is stagnant, there is high unemployment and prices are rising !

For "self preservation" Greeks have recently withdrawn Billions of Euros from their bank accounts in anticipation that this will not be possible tomorrow ! 

Panic has now struck the EUROZONE whose leaders have this evening, been convoked to an urgent meeting on Monday evening in Brussels.  Not only "Grexit" will be discussed, but probably also the fact that Tsipras is this evening already in St. Petersburg to join Putin  tomorrow at a meeting on "International Economics" ! 

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"GREXIT" : A NEW START FOR GREECE !

Stubborn talking by politicians from Greece and from the EUROZONE seems to have ended after months of discussions . 

Greece is bankrupt, it cannot repay its debts and will leave the EUROZONE !   Its creditors in the EUROZONE will have to write-off total loans of 320 billion Euros which Greece owes them !

The reorganisation which can at last be started  in Greece by Prime Minister Tsipras is an unenviable task !  He will need the support of everyone to transform the Greece he inherited from a string of previous Governments ! 

The creation of a National Coalition of all Political Parties to forestall a Civil War in Greece must be considered !  There are many unpopular decisions which will have to be adopted to restructure and modernise the Economy.  Perhaps even changes to the Constitution could be  necessary.    

Above all, Government costs must be streamlined, Pensions reduced, Taxes must be paid and Law and Order must be maintained !  Tourists will come but only if they can be certain they will be welcome and safe !

Suddenly everything has become urgent !  Countries everywhere will be watching, not only those in the EUROZONE or the EU !   There are many lessons to be learnt from this "GREXIT" !

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"GREXIT" IS THE ONLY SOLUTION LEFT FOR GREECE !

When Tsipras was elected as Prime Minister of Greece on January 25, 2015 it was because he promised Electors that he would reorganise the Economy of Greece and that he would demand a substantial Debt write-off from Eurozone Creditors !

It was quite evident that the internal Greek economy needed to be completely restructured but that at the same time Greece could not repay its debts !

Eurozone Creditors knew and feared this before the Election but they simply hoped that the Extremist Left would not win the Election ! 

Since then there have been countless meetings, lead by Angela Merkel, but they have been aimed at ensuring that Greece will undertake reorganisation measures !  Never has there been a promise to reduce or write-off part of the Greek Debts ! 

A possible "Grexit" became more certain as time passed with the consequence that there has been a run on all Greek banks by customers who have withdrawn their EUROS to hide them wherever possible !

EUROZONE creditors did not want to take a loss even though their Debtor was "Bankrupt" !  That could upset their Electors and could also damage the EURO ! The probability now is that Greece will decide to never repay the loans ! 

The possibility of a moratorium by the EUROZONE, of capital repayments coupled with a cancellation of interest during 10, 15 or 20 years was never offered !  At the end of such a period of time "capital repayments" would be easier for Greece because the EURO will surely depreciate !

To become competitive Greece cannot afford to stay in the EUROZONE !  It must depreciate all its internal and external liabilities (just like Russia and other countries have done over the years) and then adopt the former Drachme !  Cheaper prices will then encourage Tourists to return and visit Greece !

The sooner this happens, the better it will be for Greece !  Is there a better alternative solution ?  One must, however, hope that Greece will decide to stay in the EU ! 

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FIFA PRESIDENT BLATTER WANTS TO BE RE-ELECTED ?

It is difficult to understand what Blatter really wants to do !

He announced 4 days after his relection last month that he was going to resign.  He said he would organise a new FIFA Presidential election to be held before the end of this year, 2015 .

Blatter now says he "perhaps" wants to be a candidate again.   The question is "WHY" ?  Has he already resigned "officially" ?   If so, "When", "How" and "Where" !   Has there been an official announcement ?

If Blatter has not "officially" resigned, he is still the "President" until 2019 !  No new election is necessary !

If he has resigned officially, would it not be better to appoint a temporary Management Committee for FIFA ?  A new election MUST be organised for the end of this year.  There is still time for this, but how long will it take for Blatter to decide if he really wants to "retire" or not !

Let us not forget the "redacted" Garcia report he promised last December !  It still has not been made available !  When will he resign officially ?  

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A "GREXIT" WILL CREATE EUROZONE COMPLICATIONS !

The small problem which arises if Greece decides to leave the EUROZONE, is that the direct loans which were made to Greece would have to be written-off !  The amount involved is about 320 Billion EUROS.

However, every EUROZONE country on joining the EURO has ordered or printed the EUROS it required to replace its previous local currency. 

If Greece now defaults it will be impossible to find and then destroy the Greek part of the EUROS !  They will still be legal tender wherever they are circulating !

Greek banks at present have a limited stock of Euros but which its customers are withdrawing in anticipation that there will be a "Grexit" !  For them the EURO is still a hard currency and which they will still be able to spend  in the future !

The EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK (ECB) has no effective control over these Greek EUROS, but their continued existance is an additional inflationary factor in the  EUROZONE economy ! 

One could pretend that the Greek EUROS problem is like the Trillion EURO investment program of the ECB, but this is not the case.  Nor is it another form of Quantitative Easing. 

Greece is a small country, but.....  What would happen if Italy, France or Spain wanted to leave the EUROZONE ?  Would the EURO not be seriously attacked on the Financial Markets, and....what could then happen ?

Bankers in the EUROZONE have a problem to solve ! 
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"GREXIT" : EUROZONE MUST ACT NOW !

Last February the EUROZONE chose to delay its decision for 4 months on what to do with respect to Greece, which then was and still is today,  totally bankrupt.  Greece owes the EUROZONE about 250 Billion Euros and other creditors and Banks another 100 Billion Euros .

Greece joined the EU in 1981 and was allowed to adopt the EURO as its currency in 2001, but even then Eurozone leaders were insisting on further Economic reforms from Greece !


With hindsight one can really ask whether the principles of due dilligence were applied when the accounts for Greece were examined by the EUROZONE or even by the Banks ?

Greece asked the EUROZONE for Financial help in 2010 and obtained a Loan of 110 Billion Euros.  Then in 2012 a further 130 Billion was advanced to help Greece make important reforms and to prevent Bankruptcy.  

The new aim now was to ensure that Greece did not withdraw from the EUROZONE which could have led to repercussions on the monetary markets for the EURO !

Today the question which needs answering is "should Greece be left to go bankrupt and to withdraw from the EURO" ?   Greece would then be obliged to make the necessary reforms that previous Governments did not have the courage to undertake !  Greece would also be freed from the current debts it has in the EUROZONE !

Eurozone creditors would suffer a Financial loss, but should they have lent so much money to a Bankrupt country in the first place ?  Was that prudent ?

Tsipras the new Left Wing Prime Minister of Greece was elected on the promise that he would solve the Financial crisis by obtaining a substantial debt "write off" from the EUROZONE . Greek citizens have suffered for far too long from measures of austerity.  

A moratorium of the repayment of the loans could be proposed, but this would not solve the crisis from   which Greek citizens and electors want to be liberated once and for all !

Greeks want to start living again !

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LA VIE DE CHATEAU...

La CGT possède un patrimoine immobilier fabuleux : châteaux ( notamment à Théoule et en Vallée de Chevreuse, mis aussi en Bretagne, dans le Centre…) des gentilhommières , des immeubles .

A quand la fin des privilèges ?

Marin

 

FIFA : IS THE CORONATION OF BLATTER A FORMALITY ?

 

For the fifth time, this Friday 29 May, 2015 Sepp Blatter will seek another term of four years as President of FIFA !  His confidence that he will be again elected makes this next "Coronation" appear like a waste of time !

As he says of himself "Like a Swiss Goat I plod on and on and on...". 

In four years time he will again want to seek re-election as President to ensure that the preparations for the Finals of the World Cup in Qatar proceed smoothely.  Let us not forget that  from the moment when Qatar was elected to Host  the 2022 World Football Cup Finals, there was  endless suspicion and controversy, even about the construction of the Football facilities.

What has marked this Presidential election is the total absence of democracy.  There has been -

   - No debate by candidates

   - No official presentation and debate of changes  that candidates propose to undertake

   - No publication of the redacted Garcia Report which President Blatter promised on December 19,  2014, (but without indicating the date when he would publish the Report) !

   - No firm promises of what he intends to do as President during the next 4 years

   - No imperial reason has been given why "HE" so desperately needs to be re-elected again !

 

There are executives in FIFA who are well aware of what is going on in FIFA.  The way the President has conducted affairs appears scandalous.  The reputation of FIFA has been sullied and indirectly that of Switzerland as well.

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Faithful football followers can only hope that if Blatter is re-elected, someone in the FIFA executive will tell Blatter what supporters of football think of his conduct of the FIFA affairs !

 

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INDEMNITES DE RUPTURE ABUSIVE: LES MODIFICATIONS ANNONCEES

Le 19 avril dernier François Hollande avait annoncé que "les indemnités, en cas de rupture du contrat de travail seront fixées, selon un barème précis, par la loi Macron et donc connues avant l'embauche" (cf  notre article du 21 avril dernier).

On en sait aujourd'hui un peu plus sur ce que le Président avait laissé entendre. Seules sont visées "les indemnités pour licenciement sans cause réelle et sérieuse".  Les indemnités légales et conventionnelles de licenciement ne sont pas concernées.

Actuellement en cas de licenciement reconnu sans cause réelle et sérieuse par les tribunaux, autrement dit abusif, des dommages-intérêts sont dus au salarié : au moins 6 mois de salaire pour les salariés ayant au moins deux ans d'ancienneté dans les entreprises d'au moins 11 salariés, aucun maximum ne s'imposant aux juges.

Dans les entreprises de moins de 11 salariés ou pour les salariés ayant moins de deux ans d'ancienneté, c'est au juge de fixer le montant des dommages-intérêts pour rupture abusive.

Le nouveau dispositif encadrerait l'indemnité pour licenciement abusif entre un plancher et un plafond, qui varieraient selon la taille de l'entreprise et l'ancienneté du salarié : un minimum de quatre ou deux mois de salaire et un maximum de vingt ou douze mois de salaire, selon que l'entreprise emploie plus ou moins de 20 salariés.

Point positif pour les entreprises : elles connaitront le maximum encouru si elles licencient un salarié sans cause réelle et sérieuse.

Point négatif : si elles étaient adoptées en l'état, ces dispositions consacreraient une inégalité de traitement entre les salariés abusivement licenciés, puisque le maximum de dommages intérêts auxquels ils pourraient prétendre seraient fonction de la taille de l'entreprise.
 

 

DML

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WHAT ARE PUTIN'S PRIORITIES ?

Putin has kept a low profile of late but this hides what can be termed an unstable time in Russia for its citizens !

Western countries started imposing Sanctions on Russia because Putin sent Russian troops into Crimea and then annexed it as a Russian "colony".  The result is that the Russian economy no longer flourishes, shops no longer contain as many Western products as before and sales of Siberian gas to EU countries have slumped !   Russian citizens are feeling the Pinch !

Now Russian Rebels in Ukraine, with the help of armaments donated by Putin and the never ending stream of Russian "volunteer" soldiers, have renewed hostilities in Eastern Ukraine.   This marks a breach of the "Ceasefire" agreed in March in Minsk.

Still not satisfied, Putin was quick to question the right of the USA to investigate the affairs of FIFA in Switzerland !  Why ?   Is Putin worried that the 2018 World Cup Finals in Russia could be cancelled if it is proved that "fraud"  took place in the bidding process ?  

What worries the World of Football, besides the "little" problems of corruption in FIFA, is the safety of Players and Spectators going to Russia in 2018 with a war raging in Ukraine !  The new powers to arrest anyone in accordance with the recent "NGO" law is not in any way reassuring !  

Finally, what could happen if Russia does not win the World Cup in 2018, or if Ukraine got into the Final ?

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TOUS "REPUBLICAINS" ?

 

WHO CAN NOW REORGANISE FIFA ?

FIFA is now in a complete mess and even appears to be like an Orphan without any Idea of how to ensure its future !

Sepp Blatter, against general public opinion, insisted he needed another term of 4 years as President to ensure that the Good Ship FIFA reached calmer waters, but then 4 days later suddenly announced that he "would" resign !  Why ? and  When ?

So far 14 people in the FIFA organisation are suspected of fraudulent activities in connection with the nomination of World Cup Host countries.  The investigation in the USA is by far not yet finished !

The net result is that FIFA is now in "limbo" !  Key executives are under suspicion but somehow activities go on !   For example, the Finals of the Football World Cup for Women have started in Canada this Week !

Since FIFA is an organisation domiciled in Switzerland, should the Swiss Justice System not appoint a Management Committee of, for example,  3 independent professionals to oversee the running of the FIFA organisation ?   

Would this not prevent a really unholy scramble in FIFA, by "well meaning persons" to seize power ?  

Blatter in fact is now sitting between two chairs and should be obliged to resign legally !

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ARE SOCIAL SECURITY COSTS PROPERLY REPORTED ?

Most countries, above all in the EU, have a system of Social Security which provides for pensions, benefits for the unemployed, illness and medical expenses.....!  The definition of what is covered varies from country to country.

Whether successive Governments are on the left, right or centre, they all have the same responsibility to ensure that contributions by participants cover the costs of looking after the beneficiaries of the system. 

The real question is therefore whether a Professional valuation is undertaken before each General Election, to inform Political Parties and the Electorate officially of any shortfall between expected costs and expected contributions during the coming 12 months !  Insurance Actuaries already use tried techniques to make such calculations !

The effect of inflation on future costs and contributions, longer life expectancy but unvaried retirement ages, are perfect examples of unexpected costs which if they were known, could change future Government policies and Politicians promises, but also the way electors would vote ! 

Particularly in the EU, but especially in the EUROZONE,
should such an official evaluation not be prepared and become available as soon as a General Election is decided !   In fact, should it not be part of the standard information included in the notes to National Accounts ?  

This would really would permit Electors to understand and judge the effect of the promises being made by Politicians, before they go to vote !
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WHAT GALVANISES PUTIN ? WHAT MAKES HIM TICK ?

To be able to anticipate Putin's next move it helps to know how he was trained as a young man.

Putin was born on October 7, 1952.  He studied Law and graduated at Leningrad Univerity in 1980.  He was later  selected for training by the KGB and then spent 5 years (1985 - 1990) in East Germany working as an intelligence officer for them. 

Putin was in Berlin when "the Wall" was breached on November 9, 1989 !  This liberated Eastern Germany from Russian domination !   Gorbachev was then the President of Russia but could not stop the sudden surge to Independence by numerous Russian satellite countries, many of which, within a few years, joined the EU and some even adopted the EURO as their currency !

After the USSR was dissolved in 1991 Yeltsin became the Leader of Russia.  In 1999 he was losing control and he invited Putin to become Prime Minister.  Russia was on its knees and when Putin was elected President he vowed to restore Russia's place in the World.  He said he wanted Democracy and Prosperity for the People !

Alas, current reports indicate there is mounting dissatisfaction particularly on the economic front !   

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With hindsight one can now say he yearns for the old  Totalitarian style of Government enjoyed by Stalin.  He can no longer recover the Satellite countries already in the EU, but he did manage to prevent Ukraine also joining.      

Putin has temporarily recovered Crimea which helps to protect the Russian Fleet which is stationed in the Black Sea.    What he still desires is a "land corridor" in the South of Ukraine, from Russia to Crimea ! 

He always staunchly denies he is arming the Russian Rebels in Eastern Ukraine in spite of photographic evidence, or that there are Russian Soldiers in Ukraine !  He says they are "Volunteers" !  

It would be interesting to know how these soldiers are paid, because they certainly have dependent families in Russia !

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BLATTER HAS NOT YET RESIGNED !

Last Tuesday there was jubilation, but there were also tears and expressions of incredulity, when Blatter announced that he was "going to resign" !

The next day he was back in his office as usual !

In his dramatic, televised announcement he said that he would organise another Presidential Election in accordance with FIFA rules.    This would take place at the end of the year.

First of all, how can you organise a FIFA Presidential Election when there is still a President legally in office  for the next 4 years ?  Should Blatter not resign legally now !

Secondly, when a President "resigns" so dramatically, particularly when there are active ongoing investigations in Switzerland and the USA, should an Administrator, independent of FIFA not be appointed to perform the functions of President on a temporary basis ?

Thirdly, should a President who is not above all suspicion, be allowed back into his office ?   What are the functions only "HE" can perform ?   Would it not be a better standard procedure to lock him out of his office, so that he could not be tempted to do a "redaction" of certain files ?

A FIFA Administrator must be named in his place quickly and before everyone in Switzerland leaves for their annual Holiday !

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