Saturday 12 December 2015

FRANCE : REGIONAL ELECTIONS - WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW ?

Last Sunday the overall result revealed that the National Front (FN) had obtained 28.4% of the votes, Les Républicains  (LR) 27.1% and the Socialists 23.5%.   50% of the electorate abstained from voting.  

The very fact that overall FN was clearly in first place for the first time in an election, stunned LR and the Socialists.  This dilemma caused a panic. 

To underline the swing to FN, it obtained the lead in 6 of the 13 Regions and even got more than 40% of the vote in two of them.

Smaller parties in any Region which polled less than 5% of the votes were eliminated from the last round of voting tomorrow. 

This week has seen frantic efforts by LR and the Socialists to muster the votes of electors who abstained or who had voted for parties now eliminated. 

The Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls even ordered Regional socialist parties in third place to withdraw, urging electors to vote for LR against FN !  Sarkozy, however, refused to let his LR candidates to withdraw and vote for the Socialists if they were in third place !  

These Regional Elections are the first after President Hollande reduced the number of Regions to 13 from 22 beforehand.  They are new therefore, and local political plans have not really been the main preoccupation.  National problems like Immigration, Terrorism, Unemployment, Taxation and the War against IS have been the main issues discussed. 

However, many of these issues have been criticised by FN for several years !   Have LR and the Socialists paid enough attention to the worries of the electorate ?  Does the answer explain the continual rise of support for FN by voters ?

The result of the first round of voting last week was a wake-up call !   After the panic this week will there be a swing back in the support from FN to LR and the Socialists ?  How many Regions can FN win ?  Everyone wonders, no one can be sure !

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