Tuesday 5 January 2016

FRANCE : CAN HOLLANDE TRY FOR SECOND TERM ?

Normally a President can expect to be accepted by his Party as a candidate for a second Term, unless his first term has been catastrophic.   If it is, then party supporters and MPs become nervous and reluctant to back a candidate who might be a loser.  

In France at present, everything President Hollande says or does or proposes to do, is quickly scrutinized.  This reveals just how much he has lost the confidence of electors.

During his first term as President he has fulfilled few of his 60 election promises.   Also, he has said several times that, if he cannot reduce unemployment, he would not be a candidate.   Unemployment has risen virtually every month since he was elected in May 2012.  

In his New Year's Speech, he announced plans to train 500 000 unemployed people; mathematically it would reduce the number of people out of work !  But, how long will this take ?       

His economic policies have been a disaster and France has become the bad boy of the Eurozone !

France and the whole world, including Russia and the USA, is now at war against the Islamic Extremists.  After the Terrorist attacks in France last year, there is a feeling of insecurity here and in other countries as well. 

The extreme right National Front Party (FN) has now become the third political force in France and will have its own Presidential Candidate, Marine Le Pen.   FN has won the votes of many disillusioned electors from both the left and right.  

The Socialist Coalition is disintegrating : the Extreme Left is disenchanted and will probably select its own Presidential Candidate.   The Greens and the Ecologists could also have their own candidate, or could seek to support a non Socialist Candidate. 

The newly formed center-right group "The Republicans",  led by former President Sarkozy, will hold primary elections in the Autumn of this year to determine their candidate.  Will it be Nicolas Sarkozy, or could it be Alain Juppé who is, at present, very popular ?           


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