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Monday, 27 February 2017

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL : ARE FIVE YEARS OF HOLLANDE NOT ENOUGH ?


The almost daily Opinion Polls suddenly agree who will be the two winners of the First Round of voting on Sunday April 23 : Marine Le Pen, of the extreme Right "National Front," followed by  Emmanual Macron, Leader of the Movement, "En Marche"  and Hollande's Minister of Economy  until last August !

As a consequence, on May 7 the next President would not be François Fillon, of the Republican Right ; nor would it be Hamon, who won the Socialist Primary, or Melenchon of the Extreme Left....even if they do manage to agree who could be the leader if they join forces.

But, there are still 8 weeks to go before the vote on April 23 !  Is there not some wishful thinking in the air ?  There are many undecided electors, including Socialists who voted for Hollande.  Do French voters really want another dose of Socialism from Hollande's spiritual son, Emmanual Macron, after those last 5 years ?

Could there not be more surprises, like those in the Primaries of the Socialists and the Republicans ?

As any Middle Distance Athlete will tell you, "Who cares who is leading in the early stages of the race ?  What is important is who could win the final sprint at the end".

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Sunday, 26 February 2017

EU FEARS OF BREXIT - FREXIT - GREXIT !


In 2017 there are several imminent National Elections in EU countries.   In particular the results of those in France and Germany could then even lead to changes of not only some fundamental EU principles, but also the way in which "current" problems are tackled !

In 1958 Treaty of Rome was adopted and signed by the six founding Countries.  In 2009 the Treaty of Lisbon, which updated the functioning of the EU, was signed by all the 27 EU member countries.

Now in all EU countries, small but growing  Nationalist Parties want more security, effective Frontier Controls, no immigrants, only temporary refugees, and less dumping of low cost Asian Goods !

There are also loud voices which want less political interference via "Brussels Directives" in local political Issues.  In other words, National Parliaments want to recover the right to solve their local problems !  This implies the EU format must change.

The urgence for changes in the EU has been accelerated by the Acts of Terrorism and the War by Extreme Islamists in the Middle East.  It is one of the major  reasons why there are now other "Brexits" being considered.   

But, in the EU, can anything change quickly, before September, by which time certain key EU National Elections will have been decided and properly digested ?

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Saturday, 25 February 2017

FRANCE : THE FEAR AND INSECURITY !


There is a growing feeling of insecurity in France which cannot be simply ascribed only to the coming French Presidential Election !  The problems of the EU are only of secondary importance !

Recent Terrorist attacks, even those planned but thwarted in time, rowdy strikes and demonstrations, are all a part of any explanation.

When neighbours meet the talk turns quickly to what  they see on Television or even in the Streets around them !   They talk of Prices in the shops, Unemployment, Immigration, homeless Beggars on street corners !

But, since the holidays and the return to work last September, there has been endless political speculation of what would happen next : 

-  When would Hollande announce if he intends to stand for a second term as President ? 
-  Would there be a Socialist Primary Election ?
-  Who would win the Primary on the Republican Right ? Juppé or Sarkozy ?  It was Fillon who won !
-  Who could stop Valls winning the Socialist Primary ? The surprise winner was Hamon ! 

After that the only talking point is :  Who will  come second to Marine Le Pen in the first round of the Presidential ?  Fillon, Macron the spiritual son of Holland, or Hamon ?

The second will probably be the next President.  Could it be Macron ?  After 5 years of Hollande's Presidency, do French Electors want another 5 years of misery with his former advisor ?

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Friday, 24 February 2017

FRANCE : MACRON, HOLLANDE'S SPIRITUAL SON !

 
When he was elected as President in 2012 Hollande  lacked experience !  He had never been a Government Minister and during the first two years of his mandate, he was totally indecisive and ambiguous.    All he seemed to expect every month was that unemployment  would naturally fall, with little action on his part !

After the disasterous French economic results since 2012 he knew he could not  justify standing as President for a second term !

Now, one of the favourites in the 2017 Presidential Race is Emmanuel Macron.  He had been the Expert Economic Adviser of Hollande since even before his Election.   He became his Minister of the Economy in 2014 but resigned in 2016 to form his own Political Movement, "En Marche".

In spite of his scant experience as Minister of the Economy, he has successfully addressed huge public meetings ;  but, one still awaits the publication of his Election Manifesto, containing all the details of how he will finance all his promises. 

Macron has attracted many potential electors and even promises from politicians. The last but not the least is   François Bayrou, he, who had violently critised Macron less than ten days ago !  He has offered his support to Macron, the "spiritual son" of Hollande .  Is this a surprise ?   Not really.   Already in 2012 Bayrou pledged his party's votes to Hollande to ensure the defeat of Sarkozy !  

How could it all end for Macron ?  Will he, with the help and guidance of Bayrou, avoid the pitfalls that await a novice ? 

Electors are wary.  They know that another catastrophic Presidency could have painful consequences for everyone in France !

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Thursday, 23 February 2017

DRUG DEALERS CONTROL LIFE IN COMPIEGNE !


The "Parisien" newspaper in its edition of February 22, 2017 reveals the fight of the Compiègne Municipality against gangs of drug dealers ! 

The lack of security in this town of 40 000 citizens means their lives are dominated by Drug Barons and the Police are incapable of stopping this domination. 

The Security of citizens, not only in France, is a National responsibility and can only be properly ensured with a comprehensive national policy.  It obviously covers all aspects of security, not only Drugs.  Immigration, Border controls, the unhampered "Administration of Justice", must all be ensured ! 

The lack of sufficient space in Prisons in France (and in other EU countries as well) has already led to "soft" justice !   This in turn encourages, rather dissuades, more crime !

It is alarming that current Candidates in the French Presidential Election seem shy to state clearly what their Policy will be to improve Security .

Only Hamon has said he would legalise the use of Drugs like cannabis......   But, is this really an acceptable solution ?

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Wednesday, 22 February 2017

FRANCE : THE POLITICAL JUNGLE !


No Presidential Election in France has ever revealed so much uncertainty over who could win.  Every day there are new reports of intrigue, about possible alliances with small splinter groups or with other Candidates !

No leading Candidate has officially announced who he will appoint as Prime Minister if he becomes President !   Such important information could decide many electors how ultimately they vote. 

At present one can only surmise that François Fillon will appoint Sarkozy's choice, François Baroin, as a thankyou for Sarkozy's official support !

Likewise, one expects that Florian Philippot, the closest and ever present vice president of Marine Le Pen, could be her choice to become her Prime Minister...

Other candidates have given no clue on their possible choice of a future Prime Minister ! 

One should note, this afternoon at 16.30, the Press Conference of François Bayrou, the Centrist President of MoDem, aged 65.  Will he become, for the fourth time, a Presidential Candidate, or will he support the cause of the "nor right nor left" Candidate, Macron ?  Also, today Macron has already received the support of François de Rugy, unlucky Candidate with only 3,82 % of votes in the Socialist Primary Election.

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Saturday, 18 February 2017

FRANCE : MACRON AROUSES INDIGNATION !


Presidential Candidate Emanuel Macron, on a visit to Algeria, described the colonisation of Algeria by France as a "Crime against  Humanity" !

This immediately provoked a furore of reactions everywhere, which forced Macron to backtrack and  explain what he really meant !  Such an undiplomatic remark is not expected of a Presidential Candidate and former personal  adviser of President Hollande ! 

Algeria has been administrated as a Colony of France since at least 1830.  It is true, there were some bloody confrontations during the years prior to 1962 when De Gaulle granted Algeria its independence.

However, France like Britain has successful and friendly contacts with many overseas Colonies which are mutually respected : they could never merit the description of "Crimes against Humanity" ! 

To the glee of other Candidates this "untimely undiplomatic lapse" has become a setback in Macron's campaign to become the next President of France in May 2017 !

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Friday, 17 February 2017

TRUMP : WHAT IS HIS LONG TERM PLAN ?


After only three weeks as President, it is clear that Trump is a man of action !  However, now, whatever he might suddenly decide to do, worries not only the "opposition" but also the electors who voted him into power !

On all fronts, Mexico, Nato, World trade, Immigration, Diplomacy.... he is creating "opposition" !  He is creating more opposition than "friends" !   Even his inner circle of "cabinet" friends are worrying !

He has lots of "loose ends" to tie up !  Should he not lay out his long term plan and clearly explain how the "opposition" will also, ultimately, benefit ? 

"Less haste, more speed" would benefit everyone !

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Thursday, 16 February 2017

PRESIDENTIELLE:UN CANDIDAT EXEMPLAIRE


 

PRESIDENTIELLE : LE BON CHOIX



 

USA : OF WHAT IS FLYNN GUILTY ?


Flynn has resigned as National Security Advisor only 3 weeks after his official nomination !  The simple question is WHY ?  Was he forced to resign ?

It seems many were selected for jobs in the Trump team well before January 20, when Trump officially became the US President.  Like Flynn they were all, probably, making telephone calls to ensure they would be ready, before their official nomination !   Trump's style seems to encourage this.

Suddenly there is a kind of "Watergate" suspicion in the air, which means everyone now expects explanations !  

Trump must quickly act with authority to defuse the situation.   Otherwise he will be spending half his time investigating, to answer growing accusations against different members in his team !

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Wednesday, 15 February 2017

FILLON ? PEUT- IL ENCORE GAGNER ?

 
 


Selon certains analystes politiques, François Fillon peut encore gagner.
Deux points seulement le séparent d’Emmanuel Macron.

Marin
 
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Tuesday, 14 February 2017

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS : MANIFESTOES AWAITED !


All of the main Presidential Candidates have made "seductive verbal promises" aimed at their potential Electors; but none have explained how the cost of their promises will be financed, or revealed which sections of the Electorate will be expected to pay !

This means all candidates must still provide a realistic cash flow forecast to cover the cost of their promises !    

Emanuel Macron just 70 days before the election is still very discret on his programm which will only be made known at the beginning of March !  A way to avoid criticism or awkward questions ?
 
As for Benoit Hamon, his key proposal is a universal income for everyone, above all for the Young !   Nothing has been explained how this will be financed !

The National Front leader, Marine Le Pen has published 144 propositions, but why has she hesitated to reveal  how and where the funds required for these promises will be found ?

On the right, the Republican François Fillon, is the only candidate who has covered the National Problem of France comprehensively.  All his proposals exposed during the primary were solely aimed at curing the Economic imbalance France has at present.  

But, during the last few weeks he has spend almost all his time,  not on his election campaign,  but on justifying how public money was spent employing is family !

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Sunday, 12 February 2017

FRANCE : NATIONAL FRONT MAKES 144 "PROMISES" !


These National Front (FN) "Promises" are the latest version of the previous intentions aired in meetings.  However, they merit three serious observations ;

1)  The Timetable and Cost of the introduction of these Promises will, it seems, be published at a later date.  
2)  Former "Key objectives", "Frexit" and "Immigrant limitations", would only be proposed after a Referendum.
3)  Strict Border controls will be introduced by France, even on Borders with other EU Countries !

An EU Frexit, which for France also entails leaving the EUROZONE, to escape its shackling rules, could prove to be an expensive option.   The Brexit operation by Britain is an example, but France has additional costs due to its EURO currency !

At present FN leader, Marine Le Pen, even without a timetable or the estimated costs, is the favourite to be one of the two candidates reach the decisive second round of the Presidential Vote.  If she does not explain how much her Promises will cost and who will pay, other candidates will expose this weakness and destroy her hopes !

Marine Le Pen cannot expect to win just by selling dreams to Electors !
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Tuesday, 7 February 2017

FRANCE : FILLON FIGHTS BACK !


Presidential Candidate François Fillon yesterday admitted that he had employed his wife as his Parliamentry Assistant, but he also appologised !

In a convincing speech on Television, he described what his wife did but admitted that he was shattered by the anonymous accusations which appeared in the Press and Media...just before the Election !   

To employ one's wife in France like he did, is legally permitted but in recent years it has been frowned upon, which is why he thought an appology was due.    When MPs do use an allocation for expenses in this way, citizens smile wryly !   They "wonder" if the wives really do work to earn their "salary" !

As a Candidate, Fillon has presented himself as a righteous Christian with the sole Intention and Policy of wanting to put France back on its feet !  This is how he won the Republican Party Primary after starting in third place behind Sarkozy and Juppé.

Fillon's explanations yesterday silenced his "Anonymous Accusers" as well as any doubts in the Republican Party.   He remains the Party Presidential Candidate and he will now redouble his campaign efforts ! 

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Friday, 3 February 2017

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL : FN MUST EXPLAIN !


The leader of the National Front (FN), Marine Le Pen, is a hot favourite to be one of the two candidates to contest the final debate in the second round on May 7 .

Up to now the National Front plans have contained two  important objectives ;

  -  to do a "FREXIT" and leave the EU
  -  to seriously limit all Immigration into France.

The cost of a FREXIT by France could be a great deal more than the simple BREXIT Britain envisages :     leaving  the EU, would also mean leaving the EURO and the EUROZONE.   France must then adopt a new currency. 

Marine Le Pen must clearly explain the advantages and the total cost of leaving the EU, together with the cost and benefits of  reducing immigration from the EU or from other areas of the World ! 

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BENOIT HAMON : UN BEAU PROGRAMME!

 
 
Au lieu de travailler tu te relaxeras
Et sans te  fatiguer des sous tu recevras.
 
Marin
 
 

Thursday, 2 February 2017

FRENCH SOCIALIST PRESIDENTIAL HOPES IN DISARRAY


The five year term of office by François Hollande  was a disaster and it has even destroyed his Socialist Party as well.   There is panic in their ranks ! 

Benoit HAMON unexpectatly won the Socialist Primary Election last week but this victory has not guaranteed him the usual support of all the losing candidates.   His projected policies include a  for everyone over the age of 18 and the legalisation of the use of canabis.   But his policies could attract votes from the Communists on the left  !

A losing candidate, the former Prime Minister Manual Valls, has flatly refused to support Hamon.  He maintains he could not accept such a Policy which would clearly bankrupt France.  

This general consternation among Socialists has turned the spotlight on Emanuel Macron.  The former Minister of the Economy bypassed the Primary after creating his own party (En Marche) and then became a direct candidate in the Presidential Election.   He is currently   among the Opinion Poll favourites ! 

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DES PRIMAIRES, A QUOI BON ?

 
 
La prochaine fois, inutile d’organiser des primaires. Il suffira de réunir une commission composée d’un représentant de « Médiapart », un représentant du « Canard enchainé » et d’un juge du Pôle financier. Ce triumvira désignera le candidat aux présidentielles. On gagnera du temps et ça coûtera moins cher.
 
Marin

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL : FILLON'S TURMOIL !


In France today no one can be sure who will be elected as the next President on May 7 ! 

For most of last year Alain Juppé had been the clear favourite ; but in the Republican Primary Election last November, he and former President Sarkozy, were both pipped by François Fillon.

Now, two months later, Fillon the firm favourite to become the next President of France, who vaunted his honesty and probity, has become embroiled in accusations that he employed and paid his Welsh wife and two of their five children, for fictive jobs as MP assistants.

This has cast doubts in the minds of Fillon's potential electors and party workers !   Towards whom will they turn ?  To Marine Le Pen, the National Front leader who regularly gets 25% of votes in Opinion Polls ? Or to new rising star of the Left, Emanual Macron, the former Minister of the Economy and advisor of President Hollande ? 

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