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Wednesday, 28 September 2011

DSK AND DIPLOMATIC IMMUNITY


In the civil case Diallo vs DSK, the Judge has received a claim from the lawyers of DSK stating that he was covered by "diplomatic immunity" at the time of the alleged attempted rape. 

When the accusation of attempted rape was being investigated by the NY prosecutor, the case did not reach court because Ms Diallo was judged to be an unreliable witness. This did not mean that DSK was innocent. There was important medical evidence which should have been explained in court.

During the criminal procedure DSK did not utter a word except to confirm that there was mutual consent to what happened.  Now in the civil case he pleads "diplomatic immunity" through his lawyers.

With this questionable immunity he again wants to escape questions in court.

Everyone in France is now patiently awaiting to-morrow, Thursday, when  DSK, on return from his holiday in Morrocco will be confronted with Tristane Banon who has accused him of attempted rape in 2003.

How will he plead to escape this time ? 












Tuesday, 27 September 2011

THE GREEK AND SACRED EURO SOLUTION




No Official Communiqué has been published by EU political leaders. However, in European Newspapers comments of an informed nature have been made on what seem to be "official leaks" of the intended solution for the Greek and Euro crisis.


To summarise this very simply;


1)  Greece will not leave the Euro and then declare itself Bankrupt.
2)  To protect the EURO a stability fund will be created of more than 1 Trillion Euros (Trillion, not Billions).
3)  EU banks will write-off a certain percentage of the Greek debt they hold. How the banks will be compensated remains to be specified.


There is now much speculation as to how the intentions of the EU politicians can be legally realized.  It goes without saying that the Lisbon Treaty does not confer on EU policians the right to do whatever they want, particularly when now we are talking about guarantees of more than one trillion Euros. They need the authority of local EU parliaments.


Likewise it would seem that the EU has realized that Greece cannot repay all its borrowings.  Only one part of the Greek problem has been covered by writing-off a percentage of their debts with the EU banks.  There are other creditors not in the EU !!!  By side-stepping a Greek bankruptcy, which would have lead to the readoption of the old drachma and then a devaluation, Greece has been denied the chance to make its industries competitive internationally.

Many problems will certainly have to be ironed out before these current intentions will become law.  Not least is the necessity to redraft the Treaty of Lisbon, which when done, must this time be adopted by a vote in all countries of the EU.  The way the current Treaty of Lisbon was adopted and made law, was politically incorrect and scandalous.

Thursday, 22 September 2011

UBS CRIES OVER ROGUE TRADING LOSS


UBS has reported an exceptional loss of 2.3 billion dollars incurred by Kweku Adoboli, a trader it employed in its London office.  This is not the first time, and it will certainly not be the last time either, that a big Bank incurrs heavy losses like this.


UBS engaged the trader to make profits, but the loss he incurred, was it not because the UBS control system was not water-tight and this meant that the trader was not stopped earlier in his tracks ?  Any businessman knows that he must ensure complete control over cash takings and have a stock control system to avoid theft or losses.

If the trader was fraudulent and enriching himself  and/or his friends, he must be prosecuted and punished, this is quite clear.  If however he made honest mistakes and then doubled his "bets" on the stock exchanges in an effort to recover his losses, and the internal control system of UBS did not promptly reveal what was happening, who is to blame ?  UBS or the trader ? 


What makes me smile is that traders are handsomely paid to make profits.  True, they are not paid to make losses but banks never talk about the huge profits traders can and do make !!!

Banks and other companies always talk about the pre-tax losses whereas the after-tax effect is much lower !!!  If one deducts the tax effect on the loss and the after tax effect of the non payment of bonuses to directors and others, the true net loss is not 2.3 billion dollars but much less !!!  Let us not forget that normally a pre-tax loss in any accounting year can be carried forward and set off against future profits !!!

Crying crocodile tears on pre-tax losses could unnecessarily frighten smaller investors on stock exchanges and have undesired effects on the price of the bank's share price.  Better and more honest reporting must be encouraged.

Monday, 19 September 2011

DSK TRAPPED BY LYING WOMEN


A prime-time interview by Claire Chazal of DSK, watched by 14.2 million viewers scotched to their television screens, left many dubious, disappointed and unconvinced by his explanations.


Some viewers had the impression that the interview had been rehearsed many times.  The questions were very direct and to the point and DSK never flinched or had the slightest hesitation or embarrassement in replying.  At key moments we saw video clips which added reality to what DSK was saying. 


DSK has a very supportive wife in Anne Sinclair !!!  She is still a close friend of Claire Chazal because they both worked as presenters on the TF 1 television chain.


When DSK replied to questions he frequently waved and referred to the 21 page report he had in his hands produced by the NY prosecutor, Cyrus Vance.  This report can be consulted on the internet.  DSK stated that he was innocent because what happened in the Sofitel Hotelroom was consensual. No price had been fixed for sex or sexual services.

When DSK commented on the report of Cyrus Vance he was very one sided.  He said the report stated that Ms Diallo had lied on everything, including on the facts.  This is not true.  

The report produced by Cyrus Vance states that the allegations of rape by Nafissatou Diallo against DSK were dropped, because Ms Diallo had frequently lied and she was therefore an unreliable witness. She lied when she made her application to immigrate into the USA  many years ago and when she was questioned by Cyrus Vance, she gave contradictory versions of events after she had left Room 2806.  

It is difficult for non-Americans to understand why the medical evidence was not taken into account; (Read the article in this blog dated 22/8/2011 entitled "Strauss-Kahn and USA Justice").  This important evidence will certainly be presented when the Civil case which the lawyers of Ms Diallo have filed, is heard.

Likewise, a second civil case, in France this time, has been filed by Ms Banon who alleges sexual aggression by DSK in 2003.  This he has denied as being a  figment of her imagination !!!  One must await the publication of all the details. 

Conversations in France often highlight the solid and staunch support DSK has received throughout this traumatic period since mid-May from his wife, Anne Sinclair.  He did not merit this, but some say that she should have kept a closer watch on what her husband was getting up to !!! She must have known !!! His reputation in France is legion !!!

DSK realises now that he has thrown away the unique, golden chance he had of perhaps becoming the President of France next year but he was not very contrite on the television last night.  We can only wait to see what happens in the two civil cases awaiting him in NY and in Paris.     






       

Sunday, 18 September 2011

DSK s'explique!

Ce soir sur TF1 DSK s'est exprimé pour la première fois depuis l affaire du SOFITEL! et avec l'aide de ses communiquants, il a l'art de brouiller les pistes: bien sûr il est innocent,de quoi il ne le précise pas...il renvoie au rapport du procureur qui a pourtant détaillé et établi la véracité du" rapport sexuel précipité "entre DSK et naffissatou Diallo.
Certes il concède "pas seulement une faiblesse mais une faute morale".
Il a "réfléchi depuis quatre mois "et dit" avoir perdu sa légereté pour toujours"...
Il dit avoir vécu des choses violentes ...
Pense-t-il une seconde à ce qu'a pu ressentir madame Diallo  et à l'humiliation qu'elle a endurée ?
Les explications de DSK auront sans doute donné la nausée à nombres de femmes...







EURO DEBT CRISIS SCANDAL


The inability of Greece to avoid spending more than its income is a perfect example of what normally happens next. Bankruptcy is the normal result !!!

Every businessman, every shopkeeper, every head of the household knows he will lose everything if he cannot pay his creditors.

EU politicians, alas, are a race apart.  They have visions of a future which will be much better than the present.  It is a single currency Europe which will become a federal state, probably called "The United States of Europe" (USE).

For this reason Greece was saved from bankruptcy and prevented from abandoning the SACRED EURO.  EU politicians agreed to lend Greece 110 billion euros to give Greece the time to get its house in order.  One year later Greece required another 110 billion euros !!!

It would appear that the requested money was promised, but in fact the payment has been withheld because EU politicians are bickering amongst themselves.  No one seems to know exactly what the real problem is.  Speculation is rife !!!  One can imagine that there are numerous international telephone calls !!!  There are no official communiquées.

Speculation seems to be that leaders have realized that the current EU treaty must be revised completely before the "USE" can be proposed.  This of course would take time.  With this in mind, it would perhaps be best if Greece is allowed temporarily to abandon the EURO and in this way get its house in order !!!  

This would be an admission that it was wrong last year to have given Greece a loan of 110 billion Euros which must be considered a total loss. Stopping the payment of the second 110 billion would save money and would be better for the health of the EURO !!!

  

Friday, 16 September 2011

FRENCH SOCIALIST PRIMARIES, BUT NO DSK !!!


The selection procedure, to determine who will ultimately be sponsored by the Socialist Party to be its official candidate in the 2012 French Presidential Election, began last night on the television. There were 5 million avid viewers.

 The following six people are candidates:

1) François Hollande     (aged 57)
2) Martine Aubry            (aged 61)
3) Ségolène Royal          (aged 58)
4) Arnaud Montebourg  (aged 49)
5) Manuel Valls               (aged 49)
6) Jean-Michel Baylet    (aged 65)

It should be noted that the former leading favourite to become the official candidate of the Socialist Party, Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) is missing from the above list.  Even though all criminal charges against him of attempted rape in New York have been dropped, his ongoing legal problems have definitely ended his Presidential hopes.

On the television last night his name was only referred to once, but on the other hand every candidate had a least one vehement reproach for Nicholas Sarkozy, the outgoing President.  Each candidate made sure that voters understood that he must be replaced by a Socialist !!! 

Replaced by a Socialist is the key message, because there is another party, The National Front, led by Marine Le Pen. She has had very competitive opinion poll ratings which   remind the Socialists of what happened in 2002 when her father Jean-Marie Le Pen unexpectedly beat the former Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. However Jacques Chirac was re-elected for a second term.

There are no really creditable Opinion Polls of the popularity of the candidates available at present.  The order of the candidates listed above reflects an impartial impression.  To be more precise Hollande 35%, Aubry 30%, Royal 25% and 10% for the last three candidates.  

The real political debates will now start in earnest, they will be heated and feathers will fly !!!  Mistakes will be made which always happens in all elections !!!  There could even be some stabs in the back or some horsetrading. Sarkozy will be murdered on the way, but he will not die !!!
He will probably be waiting to confront the winner, perhaps even to murder him by being re-elected !!! 

On October 9 voting will take place and four candidates will be eliminated. One week later, on October 16 a run-off will take place to determine the name of the Official Socialist candidate.
    

Tuesday, 13 September 2011

GREEK CRISIS SOLVED ? NOW FOR ITALY AND CHINA !!!

It would seem that the solution to the Greek crisis will be to let Greece declare itself bankrupt. 

As I have written many times,  this is the only way out of the mess which was made worse by politicians who blindly lent Greece more than 100 Billion Euros in 2010 because what they really wanted to do was to save and protect the sacred EURO !!!  This is a high cost and sacrifice for EURO country taxpayers to have to suffer: at least it now seems that the intended second loan of 100 Billion Euros to Greece will not be made available !!!

There is however a much more important and fundamental problem lurking in the background.  Reports say that Italy has been in talks with China with a view to obtaining cheaper financing for the Italian National Debt which amounts to 120% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). 

This problem raises a fundamental question for leaders and experts in the EU as well as the EURO zone.  Each member of the EU has a responsibility for its own financial wellbeing.  Nothing in the EU treaty prevents a country from obtaining finance from outside the EU !!!  

Italy could therefore obtain finance from China, but at what cost for Europe ?  Would there not be strings attached, would this not be a way for China to get a foot in the door of the EU ? 

Is it not time that the EU, all the member countries in fact, had a new look at the EU Treaty ?  If the Italian problem is not quickly settled pacifically by a reduction of the rates of interest at present available, a new and much bigger problem than that of Greece awaits on the horizon. 

Saturday, 10 September 2011

GREEK CRISIS STARTS TO BITE


Two leading German bankers have recently resigned, apparantly as a protest at the way the European Central Bank (ECB) is handling the EURO crisis.

Mr Axel WEBER  was, until he resigned in February, the expected successor of Jean-Claude TRICHET, the ECB President.  Mr Jürgen Stark is also leaving before the expiry of his term of office.  In both cases it would seem that they were strongly opposed to the ECB bond buying plan to reduce the interest costs of further loans sought by Spain and Italy and perhaps other countries as well.

These resignations were due to the basic principles which the ECB has adopted and as such are more than just understandable. Let us not forget that the Greek crisis led EU leaders blindly to adopt the principle that the EURO must be defended at all costs !!!  Greece was accorded 110 Billion Euros credit very quickly, in spite of the fact that the reasons for the Greek bankruptcy would not be cured.  One year later another 110 Billion Euros were again necessary !!! 

Now the ECB bond buying plan is in motion. Its aim is to reduce the cost of borrowing by Spain and Italy but this will not solve the inherent Greek or Italian problems either.  It will only put off the day when Greece declares itself bankrupt and the EURO countries in the EU count their losses !!!

Greece needs to declare itself bankrupt, to adopt its old Drachma, declare a Drachma value of all foreign value debts and then devalue the Drachma !!!  This will hurt all Greeks and there will be a mini revolution, but at least the cherished EURO and EU could survive in spite of the losses !!!

The EU leaders could then order a rewriting of basic conditions which are at present lacking in the EU TREATY.


    

Wednesday, 7 September 2011

CAMERON RIGHT !!! WHY QUIT THE EU ?

In the two years since David Cameron promised his electors a vote on whether Britain should, or should not, stay in the European Union (EU), things have radically changed.  In fact one should first of all verify whether the so called EU still really exists !!!

All the 27 countries in the old EU are in a quandry because of the bail-outs of Ireland, Portugal and Greece.  Two other countries are also hovering on the brink of "bankruptcy": they are Italy and Spain.  All five countries have the EURO as their national currency just like 12 other countries in the EU !!!

However what really worries everyone is that Greece urgently needs a second Bail-out equal in size to the first one (110 Billion Euros).

This has led to a EUROZONE CRISIS.  President Sarkozy of France and the Lady Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, organised the first Bail-out for Greece and had envisaged a second Bail-out subject to the agreement of their parliaments.  These agreements seem not to be forthcoming !!!  National elections are due in France in 2012 and in Germany in 2013.  Both Sarkozy and Merkel have lost popularity by their actions over Greece.

I have pointed out frequently in this blog that it was an error not to let Greece become Bankrupt because the root cause of its financial disaster was due to uncontrolled overspending which started even before Greece joined the EU and adopted the EURO !!!  One has suddenly realized that all loans made will be bad debts.

David Cameron has, I think, realized that there is the EUROZONE, destined to become the United States of Europe (USE) and the EU without the euro !!!  The time is not right to renegotiate Britain's adhesion to what the EU has become or what it will be like in two years time.

To think the EURO problem concerns loans of more than 250 billion Euros and in France for example, taxes are being raised to provide only millions.  This is driving  people mad !!!