Nothing is certain and there are two important problems beneath the surface.
Opinion Polls have been "wild" or unstable but they indicate clearly that there may be more than 30% of electors who will abstain from voting on April 22nd.
The second problem is that not one of the 10 official candidates has seriously evoked and attacked the problem of the "EURO" which Sarkozy has said has been resolved (but at what cost to France ?). Spain is the next "EURO" problem and has said it needs help soon !!!
The unexpected surprise in these elections has been the Far Left Candidate, Melenchon. He has managed to reanimate the dormant and dying Communist voters in huge public meetings with the slogan that he wants to ceate a new "6th Republic". One suspects that he has claimed some of the voters of the traditional Socialist Party which would normally vote for Hollande !!!
The Far Right or National Front Party of Marine Le Pen has perhaps lost her third place in the Polls to Melenchon, but this will only become clear on the day of the voting. She has changed the style of campaign her father used and has gained in popularity with her persuasive presentations. Sarkozy has adopted some of her ideas !!!
Hollande needs the Far Left votes to become President and knows that if he is to win the run-off against Sarkozy he will have to negotiate with Melenchon. The old heavyweights in the Socialist Party will also expect some favours !!! At present voters wonder whether he has the "stuff and quality" to be a President. It is a fact that he has never been a Minister in Government.
Sarkozy needs not only the help of Marine Le Pen and the National Front but also the help and votes of Bayrou, a Democrat from the centre of the political Spectrum !!! Sarkozy has a long experience of Government but his Achilles Heel could be the EURO crisis !!! This has cost France a lot of money !!!
No general confrontation or debate of Candidates has as yet taken place. This will be remedied this coming week and will be commented on in this blog as soon as details become available !!!