Sunday 14 July 2013

FUTURE NATIONAL PENSION COSTS ARE UNDERESTIMATED IN THE EU;


Countries in the EU have National Pension Scheme liabilities, i.e. pensions payable to retired workers, which are funded by the contributions made by current active workers. When contributions comfortably exeed the cost of pensions payable, there is no problem. 

However, when the retirement age of workers is reduced and pensioners also live longer, a shortfall of funds available for the payment of pensions due quickly becomes a problem !  

Added to these "variable" factors is another element, the fall in the National birth rate, which long term can have a big effect.  The birth rate in Germany has  decreased and for this reason immigrants are more welcome there because they compensate birthrate shortfalls. Their work also benefits National Pension schemes.

In the Private Sector,  Insurance Companies are obliged to follow closely these problems and must therefore make actuarial appraisals for the funds they are managing.

In the Public Sector, Governments well know all the problems involved but they have serious political hesitations. No one wants to lose their seat or even their majority by making unpopular increases in pension contributions or by reducing pension benefits.  At present they prefer to absorb any immediate, smallish  shortfall of funds out of current tax income. 

To put it another way, the next Government can deal with the problem if it thinks a review is necessary !

There are no EU directives which specifically impose rules on governments.  Long term rules should impose actuarial valuations and the effect of shorfalls should be covered.  

Have we not already seen problems in this area in the case of  Greece ? Are there not now problems in Portugal ?  What about new countries which are on the verge of joining the EU ?  Do they have coverage for their National Pension liabilities ?      

Should not the President of the European Commission, Manuel Barroso, provoke a review of the situation.  Or are EU national accounts always accepted at their face value ?

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