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Sunday, 31 January 2016

AGENDA FOR THE NEXT EU COUNCIL MEETING !


The next Meeting of the Council of EU Leaders on February 18/19 in Brussels comes at a time when vital and important Policy Decisions are urgently needed and expected for the future of the EU and its Citizens.  

Will Donald Tusk, the President of the European Council, include the following points on the Agenda  for the next meeting ?

1)   More effective EU Military Action against Extremist Muslims in the Middle East.
2)   More co-ordinated EU Action to fight Extremist Muslim operators inside countries of the EU.     
3)   More effective EU Frontier Land Controls to reduce the massive tide of "migrants" heading towards the EU.
4)   Detail the Policy of how rejected Migrants are repatriated to their country of origin.   
5)   Should all countries in the EU introduce controls on their borders even with other EU countries ?
6)   Should Greece be excluded from the Schengen Area to discourage the current invasion of "Migrants" ?
7)   Should the EU not massively increase the number of Patrol Boats and Ships in the Mediterranean Sea to counter and catch the "Smugglers" of helpless humans from the Midddle East but also Smugglers from North Africa ?



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Thursday, 28 January 2016

GOOGLE BACK TAX SETTLEMENTS IN THE EU

 
It appears that Google has now agreed back tax settlements with Britain, France and other countries in the EU, for periods stretching back over a number of years.
 
To the great surprise of Taxpayers everywhere, the declared taxable Results of Google activities were very small and gave rise to Tax Payments which did not reflect its booming sales !  
 
The fundamental and basic questions to be answered now are ;  "What went wrong ?  Whose fault was it ?".
 
In a recent article in this Blog (1) it was clearly stated that it is not a crime to avoid paying tax.  This is true for Individual as well as Corporate taxpayers.   However, any measures taken to avoid the payment of tax must not contravene the Law as it stands.
 
This implies that Governments must legislate to eliminate any "loopholes" in laws which permit, even facilitate or encourage, the avoidance of tax.
 
To prevent the underpayment of tax, Governments employ Tax Inspectors and also hire the services of Tax Advisors.  Did no one ever suspect that something was awry, when the tax declared payable, was incompatible with the prosperous activities of a Company or the Group to which it belonged ?  Are all Tax Inspectors so gullible ?
 
Does the Chancellor of the Exchequer never get any "feed back" of the results of Tax Inspections ?  If not,  "Why not ?".
 
Taxpayers and Electors  everywhere want answers to ALL these questions !  They want to know what action will be taken, when and by whom, to cover "loopholes" ! 


(1) UK : Foreign Banks pay little tax on profits !
 

                                                     
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Wednesday, 27 January 2016

FRANCOIS HOLLANDE: UN PRESIDENT COURAGEUX !

 Le 14 juillet 2015, François Hollande se félicitait d'être un "Président audacieux" ( cf  ce blog en date du  15 juillet dernier )   .

En se séparant de  Christiane Taubira , ministre de la Justice, aussi populaire que contestéee, François Hollande vient de prouver qu'il est également un "Président courageux" !

 

DML

LA KIPPA POUR TOUS !


Le 15 janvier dernier, le FIGARO titrait : « Pape François :entre Juifs et Catholiques, vers un rapprochement  à petits pas ".
 
Marin
 
 
 

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

SCHENGEN TREATY : CAN EU AGREE TO REVISE IT ?


It is not easy to change only the 1985 SchengenTreaty alone without deciding how to solve other current EU problems first.  In fact, EU Leaders must now all  agree to participate in fundamental new EU actions to cover the following :

   1  Agree to close all National Frontiers, inside the EU and on the outside borders of the EU.

   2  Limit the duration of the stay of "Refugees" from the Middle East warzone to the duration of the Conflict there.  Oblige all other "Immigrants" to apply for an "Entry Visa" from an  embassy of the country of their choice, before any attempted entry into the EU.   

   3  Reinforce the monitoring of all seas around the EU, particularly in the Mediterranean.  Above all, seriously search for and imprison "Passers".
   
   4  Exclude Greece from the Schengen Area and share Greek  costs for monitoring refugees.  It has no frontier with any other EU country.
   
   5  Update the Schengen Treaty to ensure the serious fight against Terrorists in Europe and in the Middle East.  It was originally adopted in 1985 by five of the ten members of then EEC, which gradually became the EU of 28 Countries it is now !  The World has changed a great deal during the last 30 years ! 


To try to eradicate Exremist Muslim Terrorists in the Middle East, but also in every single country of the EU, cannot be achieved with piecemeal solutions !  This has already been proved, even during the last 12 months !     Now a Battle Plan must be adopted and all countries must participate, make a contribution and equitably share in the total cost. 

The Terrorists in the Middle East have destroyed life and buildings everywhere.  Temporarily sheltered Refugees in the EU, when the war is over, must then return to rebuild their countries, probably with the modern-day help of a Marshall Plan !   That will perhaps stem the current invasion of "Migrants".

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Sunday, 24 January 2016

THE FINAL SURVIVING FIFA PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES !


For the Extraordinary Congress of FIFA on February 26, 2016 to elect the new President of FIFA to replace Sepp Blatter, there will be no last minute candidates !   The deadline for Candidates was on October, 26 2015 and after verification of their credentials, five candidates have been retained.  They are,

Ali ben Al Hussein, aged 40, from Jordan 
Salman Bin Ebrahim Al Khalifa, 50, from Bahrain
Jérôme Champagne 57, from France
Gianni Infantino, 45, from Switzerland
Tokyo Sexwale, 62, from South Africa.

These are the candidates at present, but subject to any (unexpected) legal appeals.   Ali ben Al Hussein was the losing candidate against Blatter in May 2015. 

After all the Accusations of fraud and self-enrichment by former Executives of FIFA, followed by numerous Bans, it is a pleasure that all the five remaining candidates appear to be "clean" of any suspicion or wrongdoing !  It is obvious that the policy of "out with the old, in with the new" has been applied !

The new FIFA President must realise that the functions of the President and those of the Executive Committee must also be redefined.   The totalitarian powers, which Blatter as President  so much enjoyed, must be curtailed.   

Only fundamental changes will permit the success of the New Era which FIFA so much needs and is striving to obtain.
                                            
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Saturday, 23 January 2016

FRANCE : STATE OF EMERGENCY MUST BE PROLONGED !


The threat of more Terrorist attacks in France, like that which killed 129 civilians at the Bataclan Theatre on November 13, 2015 are still feared today.  This means that the State of Emergency must be prolonged on February 25 when it expires.

However, the extension of the State of Emergency for three more months to May 25, 2016 ends before the start on June 10 in France, of the UEFA Nations Championship. Is it conceivable that all terrorist threats will be over by then and that the war against DAESH  everywhere will be finished ?  Certainly not !  

Thousands of Football Supporters from all over Europe will be coming and they must feel secure  and protected ! 

Let us not forget, that President Hollande was at a football match last November when there was an explosion outside the Stade de France stadium.  Later that evening the Bataclan Theatre was attacked !    

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Friday, 22 January 2016

WHO ORDERED LITVINENKO MURDER ?


Sir Robert Owen, a former High Court Judge with 20 years of experience, has produced a report of evidence he heard from 80 witnesses concerning the murder of Alexander Litvinenko in London in 2006, at the age of 44.

The report of more than 300 pages accuses Russia, the KGB and President Vladimir Putin of having ordered Litvinenko's  assassination with polonium in his tea.  As is usual in such cases, Russia denies any involvement in this murder.  There is a sinister warning in the report that there could still be further reprisals by Russia. 

News of the murder or assassination beneath the Walls of the Kremlin of Boris Nemtsov, a former Prime Minister of Russia, obliged President Putin to announce in February 2015 that his killers would be found.  The search seems to have been fruitless and after almost one year, has probably been abandoned !

This is typical of the "cloak and dagger" atmosphere which seems to be present in their operations. 

What is really surprising is that so many Russian Agents can get into and out of Britain without being challenged.  Do British agents in Russia have the same freedom ?  How many Russians are officially resident and officially attached to the Russian Embassy in Britain ?

Is the presence of everyone justified ?  That is what Theresa May, the Home Secretary, should be pondering !    

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MARIAGE POUR TOUS : LES CONVICTIONS OPPORTUNISTES DE NICOLAS SARKOZY !

 
Vous vous souvenez ?  C'était le 15 novembre 2014.  Nicolas Sarkozy concédait aux militants du courant "Sens Commun"  (anti mariage pour tous) l'abrogation de la loi Taubira sur le mariage homosexuel et pas seulement sa réécriture.  Il avait même lâché ce samedi 15 novembre : "Si ça peut vous faire plaisir, franchement, ça coûte pas très cher" (1) .
 
Un an plus tard, dans son ouvrage "La France pour la vie" il revient sur sa position : "J'avais pensé à l'époque que les ambiguïtés de la loi Taubira sur certains points imposeraient une nouvelle rédaction.  A la réflexion, je crains que le remède soit pire que le mal".
 
Ses convictions opportunistes et ses sincérités successives ne risquent elles pas de lui coûter cher lors de "la  Primaire"?
 
 
(1) cf ce blog en date du 18 novembre 2014 :" Nicolas Sarkozy : ça risque de lui coûter cher ! "
 
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Thursday, 21 January 2016

SPORT AND CHEATS : NOW TENNIS BUT WHO NEXT ?

The recent WADA report exposed the use of Drugs by Athletes, but now more cheating, this time in Tennis, has been reported in the Press.  

 Any Cheats, in any sport, who play to lose for money, must be banned for life immediately.  Likewise any trainer or conniving associate must also be banned.  Could any lesser punishment ever be envisaged or justified ? 

What is even more important is to determine who, in the LTA (Lawn Tennis Association) or in any similar governing body in Tennis, was aware of what was going on.  Reports reveal that it has been a well known secret for many years that Gambling Syndicates, in Russia and elsewhere paid players to lose !  

Recently FIFA and the IAAF governing bodies were forced to "clean-up" after having been exposed.  How many other Sports Organisations have "connived" with cheating ? 

This is a world-wide problem which can only be solved at the highest level, to cover all sports and in all countries. 

Cheats and everyone who connives with them, actively or passively, must be punished.  If all Sports Associations could be forced to include, in their rules, a standard text of the "World Rules on cheating" and the punishment for cheats, would that not be a start ?

Perhaps there is a better way, but doing nothing will never change anything ! 

                                                                                  

 

                   

Tuesday, 19 January 2016

UNEMPLOYMENT : HOLLANDE'S PLAN UNCONVINCING !


With his last throw of the dice, to stop unemployment rising, President Hollande has convinced no one !  It has risen 650 000 since May 2012, but every year he has repeated the same expectation, that unemployment will fall before the end of the year.
 
Now, one new objective is to train 500 000 unemployed people which, statistically, would also reduce the number of workless.  This could cost two billion Euros, but when will they be ready trained to work ?  Will  Employers be prepared to take on more workers before they are sure of an upturn in business ?

Another possibility is the modification of the conditions attached to the 35 hour week.  Employers want to be liberated  from this millstone in order to become competitive again, even in EU markets.  Hollande does not want to be seen abandoning a fundamental right acquired by Trade Unionistes for workers.

The details of these and other ideas must first be drafted, then checked, before adoption in the National Assembly to become Law, which at the earliest, will be about the middle of the month of March ! 

That Law will probably come too late to help Hollande in his efforts to stand for a second term of the Presidency, but it could be helpful for whoever is elected in May 2017 !        

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Sunday, 17 January 2016

WHY KIPPAS, NIQABS and HOODS MUST BE BANNED ?

The isolated Terrorist activities everywhere and the War raging in the Middle East, have created new conditions and new obligations for Civilians and for Governments, if they seriously want to ensure protection and security.   Wearing religious or ostentatious clothing  now incites reprisals ! 

In France, the recent attacks on Jews in the street are the perfect example.   Is it prudent to wear a Kippa or a distinctve black felt Hat in the street ?  Should they not be reserved for wear at home or in the synagogue ?

Likewise, in western countries Muslims also dress in very distinctive clothing.  Wearing Niqabs or Hijabs in the street is  banned by law in certain countries.  This ensures the basic principle that the face of everyone can always be seen and identified.  What Muslims wear at home or in their Mosques is normally tolerated. 

Leaders of ALL religious denominations have a duty to protect their faithful.  They should preach principles of prudence and common sense, to guide their believers and, above all, to ensure their safety.  

Wearing Hoods in the street to prevent identification should be outlawed everywhere.   There is an evident difference between protection against the elements and hiding one's face.  

To counter the increasing, gratuitous terrorist activites, a sharp new crackdown on "hoods" by the police must be announced and undertaken !   This is what electors everywhere expect. 

 
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Friday, 15 January 2016

MERKEL: HOW LONG CAN SHE LAST ?


The opposition Chancellor Merkel is facing in Germany and in the EU, from dissatisfied Politicians over her handling of  Immigrants and refugees, is mounting daily.

The latest example is the reaction of the Regional  District Councillor of the Bavarian town of Landshut, Peter Dreier, who put 31 refugees on a bus and sent them to Angela Merkel's office in Berlin !  

This crystallises the changing mood in Germany, with the daily arrivals of thousands of "migrants".  They are not just "refugees" from the Middle East, which Merkel invited with open arms in September 2015, but also would-be "immigrants" from other "hot spots" in the World like Afghanistan.  Some are escaping only for "economic reasons".

The mood is also changing in the EU.  At all recent elections Parties on the extreme Right have increased their shares of the vote.  Some countries have already built fencing on their borders to keep all migrants out !   

What would Merkel do if all the dissatisfied Mayors in Germany and in the EU, also sent bus loads of migrants to Berlin for her attention ?  How would her Coalition partners react, or would they do nothing ? 

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Thursday, 14 January 2016

FRANCE : STATE OF EMERGENCY MUST CONTINUE !


The State of Emergency for 3 months decreed by President Hollande, after the terrorist attacks on November 13 last year (11 13 15) against the Bataclan Theatre, must be maintained, despite the many political debates now going on. 

The decree temporarily gives wider powers to the Police to ensure security in France.  The debates have revealed that there are weaknesses in the current systems which need to be addressed to protect properly everyone in France. 

It is well known that there is a law for everything in France, but there is also an unwritten rule, called "discretion" and which means that the application of the law is not always enforced in accordance with the spirit of the texts ! 

A blatant example is caused by the lack of sufficient places in prisons to house convicted criminals or to detain suspected offenders during lengthy investigations !   Judges are  encouraged to dispense soft justice as a result.   

Tough justice is required to counter Terrorists,  particularly as some are ready to die when they attack.  Suspected terrorists should be securely detained and more purpose built prisons should be constructed.   These are not just temporary solutions but much needed State investments for the future. 

When more very secure prisons are available, one could seriously decide  whether the "State of Emergency" declared by President Hollande is still justified !    

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DRUG ABUSE STILL EXISTS IN MANY SPORTS !


WADA (1) and the IAAF (2) know that drug abuse is also a problem in other sports.   This should not deter them from leading the way by imposing new rules and procedures for Athletics as soon as possible, in particular for the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio.

The tragic death of Tom Simpson, while climbing the Ventoux mountain in the 1967 Tour de France cycle race, should not be forgotten.  His death was due to an  overdose of drugs.  Afterwards everyone wanted better controls to eliminate Drugs in Sport !   Now, 49 years later, the world is still fighting the "Cheats", by both sportsmen and others ! 

Is Cycling now clean ?  No one dares to maintain that !  There are other sports, which are not so much in the limelight, where Drug Abuse can be suspected.  For example, why do weightlifters die so early ?  Clean sport activity generally ensures a longer life. 

One should not simply ban countries or sports when Drug Abuse has been identified.  This also penalises and destroys the ambitions of young sportsmen who are clean.  A timetable for the introduction of effective controls should be determined for sports bodies, particularly for those which participate in the Olympics and International Competitions.  

In this respect WADA and IAAF could become leaders and help with the creation and adoption of effective controls in all sports.


1)  WADA = World Anti Doping Agency             
(2)  IAAF  = International Association of Athletics Federations        

    


  

        

  

Wednesday, 13 January 2016

KIPPA : LA PORTER OU PAS ?

Apres l'agression antisémite contre un enseignant juif à Marseille, le président du consistoire israélite de Marseille invite les juifs à ne plus porter leur kippa dans la rue afin d'éviter d'être pris pour cible.

Une recommandation pragmatique et de bon sens mais décriée et contestée par d'autres.

Le president du Crif (conseil représentatif des institutions juives de France) a ainsi regretté sur BFMTV "une recommandation maladroite" et "une attitude défaitiste". De nombreux responsables politiques de droite comme de gauche ont également réagi dans le même sens. Un peu facile pour ceux qui circulent protégés et entourés par leurs gardes du corps et dans des quartiers tranquilles...

Toutefois comme l'a rappelé Serge Klarsfeld ce matin sur RTL, la première précaution est de protéger sa vie et la vie de sa famille et ne pas devenir une cible.  Quitte à ne pas porter sa kippa dans la rue.

 

DML

 
 
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FRANCE : PRESIDENT HOLLANDE'S NIGHTMARE !

The new Year has brought new hope to President Hollande who desperately wants to be re-elected next year for a second term of 5 years as President of France. 

He now has new ideas of how he could reduce the ever increasing number of unemployed.  He wants 500 000 unemployed people to be trained ; mathematically it would reduce the number of people out of work.  But, to train unqualified workers takes longer than just a few months ! 

 Hollande now also wants more big building projects to be undertaken.   This again is something he has not done during his first years in office and for which he has already been criticised.

Anything he now, suddenly, wants to do is just too late !  His dithering in the past and the policies he chose have been a disaster. 

Now an increasing clamour of voices request the organisation of a Primary Election at the end of 2016 to select the next Socialist Candidate for the Presidential Election in May 2017.

Daily there is a surge of more criticism in his own party !   Clearly Hollande has lost the confidence of his old supporters who fear their President, as a candidate, would be a loser.  

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Monday, 11 January 2016

WADA REPORT : LAST CHANCE FOR IAAF, TO AVOID FIFA STYLE MELTDOWN !



The second part of the WADA (1) report into Drug Abuse by athletes will be made public in Munich on Thursday January 14, 2015 by Dick Pound, who led the investigation.

The three main issues in the Report are,

1)   Athletes from several countries have been identified as drug users and have ilegally won prizes.
2)   Sports Administrators worldwide (even in the IAAF) have illegally covered-up known Drug Abuse.
3)   Tests to detect drug abuse at sports events, or on a random basis, are at present inefficient.

Since the publication of the first part of the WADA Report, some Athletes and Sports Administraors have been banned.  Russia in particular, as a leading abuser in athletics, has been suspended. 

However, there is still much which remains to be done and in other countries than Russia !  This means, in particular, that the IAAF has a last chance to get tough and ban or punish Administrators and trainers who are known to have abused their positions for personal profit !

This Blog has already regretted that Russia was suspended from International compétitions, because this hurts all sportmen or women, even those who are innocent and clean.  Should the IAAF not immediately announce the systematic testing of all athletes at the next Olympic Games in RIO in August 2016 ?

Likewise, should WADA not supervise the testing of athletes before and after events ?   The onus of ensuring that an athlete is "clean" should fall on each Country and each Athlete.  Those who fail the test should be disqualified from all competitions  and should not be reinstated until after a hearing ! 

At present the responsibilities are badly defined.  Ultimately this must change.   A new start, with new World Records in almost every event in RIO, could replace the rotten past.   This would be a sensation in "sports mad" Brazil !  

(1)  WADA = World Anti Doping Agency             
(2)  IAAF    = International Association of Athletics Federations        

Sunday, 10 January 2016

BACHAR AL ASSAD STARVES HIS CITIZENS !


The revelation that the Syrian town of Madaya, which is in  Rebel hands, has been blockaded by Syrian troops and that the population is starving to death, is the latest atrocity which can only be ascribed to Bachar al Assad, the "President of the whole of Syria" ! 

Food relief by the United Nations is now on its way, but only after intense negotiations with Syrian authorities.  There may be a war but the object of wars is never to exterminate civilians like women, children and babies or their grandparents !  This is not the first "Crime against Humanity" committed by Bachar al Assad !

He is at present very grateful for the help Russian troops have provided with their intervention in the Middle East war, but he should realise that Putin's main aim is to defend Russia and its citizens from Islamic Terrorist attacks, not to save Bachar's skin !  

Bachar al Assad may be the President of Syria, but he is a Dictator, not the beloved and admired Leader of ALL the people who live in Syria.   Who are his advisors ?

He has a wife who was born in Britain in 1975 (of Syrian parents) and who lived there for 25 years until they got married.  She studied and graduated at London University.   She must be horrified by this story.   Has he ever listened to what she says, or has he gagged her ?  

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Friday, 8 January 2016

FRENCH MPs SPLIT OVER DUAL NATIONAL SANCTIONS


Total confusion has arisen on the question of whether the French nationality of dual nationals could or should be withdrawn if they are convicted of Terrorist crimes against France.  

It is against the Human Rights Act to make a person stateless, but when a bi-national criminal is convicted of "Acts of Terrorism" against France, should he be deported after he has served his term in prison and also be deprived of his French citizenship ?

A formal and very serious debate will take place in the French Parliament and the French Constitution may have to be slightly modified. 

Alas, it is Christiane Taubira, the Minister of Justice, who has the duty to lead the debate.  She is vehemently against the proposed withdrawal and she is being pilloried to resign !  Some members of the Republican Opposition even want the whole Government to resign !

President Hollande, who started this whole debate in the first place, has now prudently withdrawn from the fray and refuses to take any further part in the debate.  

David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, was in a similar "revolt" recently with respect to his Referendum next year : "Should  Britain stay in the EU ?".  He decided that all MPs should argue and vote in accordance with their own conscience.   Afterwards it is the electorate who will decide !  

Is this not the solution for President Hollande ?  Let MPs have a free vote !
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DECHEANCE DE NATIONALITE



La déchéance de nationalité : une mesure non dissuasive mais un symbole fort pour une majorité de français!



 

Thursday, 7 January 2016

UK : FOREIGN BANKS PAY LITTLE TAX ON PROFITS !

Not for the first time Politicians in Britain are complaining that foreign Banks with active subsidiaries in the UK, pay little or no tax on their results.  

These complaints have been going on for years, so what is really surprising is that no responsible  Government official has ever denied that there is a "tax avoidance" problem !

The correct issue really is "Why is tax avoidance tolerated ?"

There is a basic rule when preparing a tax declaration :  it is permissible to avoid paying tax if no "illegal methods or accounting principles" are employed.  

The British Chancellor, George Osborne, must legislate to erase doubt over any possible misinterpretations of tax laws.   Tax Inspectors must use audit principles to determine whether a Declaration appears to be satisfactory. 

This is particularly the case when a healthy company or bank seems very profitable, yet pays little or no tax.  When the mother company abroad pays normal taxes on its operations, why not its subsidiary ?  

Normally any company must justify its calculations and the principles it used to determine its tax liability. 

If Inspectors are still not satisfied with the explanations they have received, a detailed audit should be undertaken ! 

In the end, the Chancellor should legislate, or deny that there is a problem of underpaid taxes !  He is the Minister responsible for ensuring that proper taxes are recovered !

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Wednesday, 6 January 2016

EU MUST CHANGE TO SURVIVE !

The "spirit" of the "Union" embedded in Treaties now no longer seems to exist :  

   1.   At present there are 19 countries in the "EUROZONE" and 9 other countries which do not have the Euro as their national currency.  This means that if the 19 "block vote" they can totally control any changes proposed to current EU treaties and all new legislation.  This destroys the spirit of the "Union " !


   2.   The "EUROZONE" powers should be limited to only ensure the protection of the EURO.  Operating decisions required for the EURO should not affect non-EURO countries.

   3.   All entry points into the EU (on land, at sea ports or at airports) should be manned to stop illegal immigrants and illegal imports.  The total cost should include the fencing required on all external EU borders.  The total cost should be shared  proportionately by all EU countries.
      
   4.   The "freedom of movement " of people and goods within the EU should be redefined.

   5.   The total costs of EU countries fighting Islamic Terrorists in the Middle East, should be borne proportionately by all EU countries ! 


The Middle East turmoil has severely tested the whole EU.  The individual initiatives by Countries which cannot accept any more Immigrants, or even EU Migrants, has led to the construction of Land Barriers, or Fencing, even "Inside" the EU.

"Nationalism" has reared its ugly Head, because in fact all countries in the EU are still proud of their Origins and are still Patriotic !   Is the EU not really becoming the "European Federation" ? 

In this context one must not forget that in several countries voters have increasingly elected Nationalist candidates at the expense of the traditional parties.  Electors want changes ! 
  
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804 VOITURES BRULEES...



Statistiques encourageantes : Il n’y a eu QUE 804 voitures brûlées pendant la nuit de la St Sylvestre au lieu de 940 l’an dernier.

MARIN
 

 

Tuesday, 5 January 2016

FRANCE : CAN HOLLANDE TRY FOR SECOND TERM ?

Normally a President can expect to be accepted by his Party as a candidate for a second Term, unless his first term has been catastrophic.   If it is, then party supporters and MPs become nervous and reluctant to back a candidate who might be a loser.  

In France at present, everything President Hollande says or does or proposes to do, is quickly scrutinized.  This reveals just how much he has lost the confidence of electors.

During his first term as President he has fulfilled few of his 60 election promises.   Also, he has said several times that, if he cannot reduce unemployment, he would not be a candidate.   Unemployment has risen virtually every month since he was elected in May 2012.  

In his New Year's Speech, he announced plans to train 500 000 unemployed people; mathematically it would reduce the number of people out of work !  But, how long will this take ?       

His economic policies have been a disaster and France has become the bad boy of the Eurozone !

France and the whole world, including Russia and the USA, is now at war against the Islamic Extremists.  After the Terrorist attacks in France last year, there is a feeling of insecurity here and in other countries as well. 

The extreme right National Front Party (FN) has now become the third political force in France and will have its own Presidential Candidate, Marine Le Pen.   FN has won the votes of many disillusioned electors from both the left and right.  

The Socialist Coalition is disintegrating : the Extreme Left is disenchanted and will probably select its own Presidential Candidate.   The Greens and the Ecologists could also have their own candidate, or could seek to support a non Socialist Candidate. 

The newly formed center-right group "The Republicans",  led by former President Sarkozy, will hold primary elections in the Autumn of this year to determine their candidate.  Will it be Nicolas Sarkozy, or could it be Alain Juppé who is, at present, very popular ?           


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JUPPE CARACOLE EN TETE DANS LES SONDAGES




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Saturday, 2 January 2016

FRANCE : PRESIDENTIAL PLANS AND HOPES FOR 2016

President Hollande, while presenting his annual New Year's "Good Wishes" to French citizens, announced that his two main objectives in 2016 are to ensure the security of France against further Terrorist Attacks and, but not least, to take more new measures to reduce or prevent more Unemployment. 

The year 2015 has been catastrophic.  It started badly with the Terrorist attack on the satyrical newspaper "Charlie Hebdo" on January 7 + 9, 2015.  It ended with the attack on November 13,    (11-13-15) on the Bataclan theater.  There were several other alerts during the year. 

The economic condition of France has also suffered  since the election of President Hollande in May 2012.   Government spending in 2015 will outstrip income by about 700 Million Euros, but the reasons for any overruns, even in 2016, will be ascribed to higher costs for tighter security. 

However, what is quite clear is that Hollande wants to stand for a second term as President in May 2017.   Whether he will be able to, depends really on whether he can convince the Socialist Coalition that he is the best Candidate who could beat even Opposition Party candidates ! 

The 2017 Presidential Election is on the minds of all politicians in France ! 


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