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Monday, 18 July 2016


Before any negotiations can officially start between Britain and the EU on the conditions and costs of the UK leaving the EU, the two Houses of Parliament must discuss and vote whether the UK should leave the EU !

The result of the Referendum was close and it is not at all certain how all 630 MPs in the House of Commons will vote.  What it did reveal is that Scottish electors voted to remain in the EU.   Likewise Northern Irish voters also.

If the UK MPs vote to leave the EU, there will be an immediate clamour by Scotland for Independence and by Northern Ireland to rejoin the Irish Republic !  In that way both could remain in the EU !

Theresa May, who became the new Prime Minister after the resignation of David Cameron, will be fully tested over this issue.  What negotiation conditions could the Parliamentary Vote impose ?  What would happen if the EU decides to "alter or update" its Treaties during the negotiations ?

Section 50 of the 2008 Lisbon Treaty indicates that negotiations could take two Years, but no other country has ever negotiated leaving the EU since that Treaty was adopted.   All that happens will become new Jurisprudence !

There are also many EU Officials, MEP's and UK MPs who regret that the UK might leave the European Union !All this could take much more time than expected !