Google+ Badge

Monday, 31 October 2016


The revelations in the recently published best selling book in France entitled "A President should not say that" (1),  are proving to be the final nail in the proverbial coffin of François  Hollande !

He has had a disasterous 4 years since he was unexpectedly elected to be the President for 5 years in May 2012.  Then however, he secretly  and regularly invited two journalists into his Elysee Palace office, to confide to them his  observations on current events and problems !  Was his aim not to leave a testimony of his Presidency ?

These revelations have completely destroyed the complicity which normally exists between a President and his Prime Minister and closest Cabinet Mnisters.  Even Socialist Party faithful  are deserting a sinking ship ! 

Hollande desperately harboured hopes to stand for a second term of five years as President, despite his lack of popularity, but all these hopes have now evaporated ! 

Manual Valls, his faithful Prime Minister, is livid over this scandal.  He had in the past, repeatedly said that he would never stand as a Candidate against Hollande : now it seems more than likely he will take part in the Socialist Primary election in January 2017 ! 

(1)  In French : "Un President ne devrait pas dire ça... "  Edited by STOCK.    


Sunday, 30 October 2016


There are two sides arguing about whether Britain should stay in the EU or "EXIT" the EU ; but has either side calculated the "net cost or profit" of the option they propose ?

A comparison of the two detailed calculations would quickly reveal errors which could be corrected and then permit better, more meaningful, discussions ! 

Anyone who has been involved in Takeovers or Company Reorganisations in the private business sector, knows that for all important decisions the anticipated effect on the Company Results (the bottom line) must be calculated !   This is normally not done for just one year but for at least 5 years !

The Directors must be able to justify "big deals" to their shareholders ! 

Do Politicians not have a similar duty to their Taxpayers and their Electors ? 


After the closure of the "Jungle" in Calais early this week, more than a thousand would-be immigrants have arrived in Paris.  In particular they have planted their "tents" in the north of Paris under the arches of the overhead metro line, in the 19th District between Stalingrad and Jaures.

This eventuality was fully anticipated by two articles in this Blog (1) earlier this week !   The Refugees are not only from Syria in the Middle East but also from "Black Africa" and other war torn countries !  

Refugees want security and a better future, in not only France but other countries too !  Their migration search will continue !

The "Open Door or Frontiers Policy" of the EU, the Free uncontrolled circulation Inside the EU and the Schengen Area, must be redefined !  Only then will the future of the EU be assured.

All other countries in the World do this.  They recognise  changes in the outside world around them, but then in a similar manner update their rules and Laws, to protect their citizens. 

To survive, the EU must also act, not only to protect all its citizens but also to ensure the future survival of the EU entity ! 

(1)  - Read the two articles in this Blog :
         - "Hollande in the Political Jungle" dated 25/10/2016. 
         - "Theresa May has a bad Dream"  dated 26/10/2016.  Drawn by our Cartoonist Marin.                                                     


Thursday, 27 October 2016


Since the last Russian Tzar Nicolas 2, who was forced to abdicate on March 15, 1917, has anything really changed in Russia ? 

Like in other Totalitarian Countries, politicians there have replaced the Royal Family and National Leaders are now often protected from "dangerous Democratic Elections" !  

In the case of Russia, 50% of the 450 MPs in the Duma Parliament are "nominated" by the President's Party !  The 225 candidates stand alone, without opposition.   This really does  guarantee the continuation of the Leadership ! 

Will the current Russian President, King Vladimir Putin, order Centenary Celebrations next year on Red Square ? Will there be a march past with an  impressive display of Russian Military Might,  to mark the occasion ?  

Who will be invited to join him ?




Wednesday, 26 October 2016


As promised by President Hollande, the "Calais Jungle" has been emptied of its thousands of Refugees and Migrants.  They have been transferred to reception centres all over France.

What has surprised everyone even more in France is that the whole "Jungle" is now on fire !   30 separate fires had been started : a Koranic tradition according to the Calais Authorities !

One can only hope that the specially prepared centres, to shelter the migrants temporarily, will not suffer the same fate when they leave. 





Tuesday, 25 October 2016


When Hollande visited Calais for the first time as President, he promised that, before the end of 2016, the "Jungle" housing up to 10 000 Refugees and Migrants, would be evacuated and then demolished !

This operation has already started.  The Refugees and Migrants are being interviewed and transported to one of the 164 existing centres dotted around the whole of France, as well as centres recently opened for this operation.

Things are progressing smoothely for the time being but Calais inhabitants are sceptical.  Even if the jungle camp is demolished, will this really ensure that no previous or new Migrants will be found later in the Calais area ?

If their presence then creates problems in towns and villages to which they have been allocated, if they cannot work or are missing the comrades from the Camp in Calais, will they not want to "move on" ?   Will they not try to enter Spain, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland or Italy ? 

President Hollande risks attracting the wrath of EU Leaders in Brussels as well as numerous Mayors and their citizens in France !  Besides other well known problems in France, already raised in this Blog, is he not now in a Political Jungle ? 



Sunday, 23 October 2016


François Hollande seems to have lost the last re-election hopes he had, for a second term of 5 years as President of France.

Since the publication of the book (1) "A President  should not say that", the current best selling book in France, Hollande has had to pacify the Judiciary, and the Police have organised demonstrations in towns all over France. 

Briefly, the Police feel they are Under-staffed, do not have sufficient legal protection or up to date Equipment to do their jobs effectively.   Afterwards soft justice is dispensed due to the lack of enough cells in prisons, which means criminals reoffend because they are not deterred !

The Minister of Justice, Bernard Cazeneuve has done nothing to pacify these complaints by the Police.

This has also increased the general feeling of insecurity all over France.   

However, Prime Minister Valls who continually, faithfully, supports Hollande and who has repeatedly said he would not stand as a candidate against Hollande in an Election, is now urging Socialists to club together ; otherwise the socialist  Party will no longer remain the force it was, one of the two main Parties in France.
The feeling of French Socialists is that Valls would be the better Candidate,  but one must patiently await  December when Hollande will make public his decision to stand or not !

(1) In French : "Un President ne devrait pas dire ça", by Gerard Davet and Fabrice Lhomme, Stock Editions.  



Saturday, 22 October 2016


1805 Austerlitz pour l’un, 2016 La Bérézina pour l’autre…. Mais il n’ a pas l’air de s’en apercevoir.

Thursday, 20 October 2016


The preoccupations of all French citizens are now starting to be dominated by the Presidential and General Elections due in April and May 2017.  The Unrest and the feeling of insecurity which at present prevail in France are caused by :

-   Fear of Terrorist Attacks by extremist  Muslims.
-   Inefficiency of the System of Justice.
-   Continual rise of the number of Unemployed.
-   Lack of Government Investments.
-   Rising Living-costs.
-   Rising Taxation.
-   Immigrants and Refugees.
-   Stagnation of EU policies over the Middle-East War. 

The discontent which the Police have expressed recently  all over France also reflects perfectly the feelings of all French citizens.      

The very fact that the Presidency of Francois Hollande is generally considered to be a total disaster does not help, particularly because he still harbours hopes of being able to stand for a second 5 year term as President.  This will certainly remain a dream !

The inefficiency of "justice" in France can be directly ascribed to the lack of Prisons with enough "Cells".  This has meant Judges have been obliged to dispense "soft justice" like reduced sentencing. 

Such a Policy has never deterrred criminals,  gangsters, drug sellers and petty offenders who become multi-recidivists.  This is notably the case in the suburbs of cities and large towns : the police force is undermanned and cannot cope !

Likewise, the EU problems related to Immigrants and Refugees could perhaps have been reduced if Hollande's influence on Merkel had been more pronounced !  The part of France in the German-French Junta has not been very evident !  That could also change after the Elections next year in both France and Germany.



Wednesday, 19 October 2016


One cannot trample slipshod over the unwritten British Constitutional laws of the House of Commons.    Elected MPs will always use their powers of a free vote, to uphold their rights in any such circumstances !  Party Whips know they could never prevent this.

Theresa May, the Prime Minister, must also respect this.  "Brexit or not" is a perfect and typical example of when she will be expected to ensure a free vote by MPs,  BEFORE she actions Section 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start any official "Brexit" negotiations !

Since the "Brexit" vote by Electors in the Referendum, many other events have also forced EU leaders to recognise, that changes in the EU are now urgent, even if only to ensure its future !

This has been confirmed by Angela Merkel, who faces a General Election  in Germany next year, just like François Hollande in France.  Both face difficulties and may not win : they would be replaced, which would mean new faces and ideas at future EU meetings !

Should Theresa May action Section 50 in March 2017 as she said she would, or should she wait until after the result of the German General Election in October 2017 ?

In the meantime more changes will have been introduced in the EU.  This will then, really permit Britain to decide if, it really does want, to be part of the NEW EU ! 



Monday, 17 October 2016


Everyone in France is waiting for the clear signal from President Hollande that he "Will or will not stand for a second term of 5 years in the next Presidential Election in 2017".

In spite of all the "disasters" during his Presidency which have been publicly criticised by the Left, Center and the Right, can he still harbour the "Hope" that he could justify standing, and then even win ?

The Revelations last week, published in their 600 page book, by two journatists, were totally unexpected !  Hollande had invited them into his office to share his thoughts on a regular basis since his election as President.   This has now started a new line of criticism which will last !
The Socialists have scheduled a primary election for  January 2017, in which Hollande would be expected to take part ; but will he run this risk ?   His Popularity Polls have been an all-time low for a past President !   

Other valid Candidates also want to be the "officially sponsored Socialist Party Candidate" and know they could get the votes of disenchanted former Hollande electors.  Hollande knows that too !

Speculation is therefore rife !   Opinion Polls also reveal  Prime Minister Valls (aged 54) as a Candidate, would have a much better chance of winning the Primary, than Hollande (aged 62) !   But Valls, out of loyalty, refuses to stand against Hollande !

Everyone must wait to see what happens next !



Sunday, 16 October 2016


Was Trump not the first, in this campaign, to  revive old sex allegations concerning former President Bill Clinton, just to embarrass Hillary Clinton and win a cheap advantage ?  

He is now quite rightly being pilloried for similar errors in the bygone past.   But, he does not deny the accusations made by several women :  he just tries to brush them away !

He now challenges Hillary Clinton to accept drug tests !  Is this not just another diversionary  tactic ?

From the European side of the Atlantic it seems that only Sex and Drugs are the major issues in the debates !  When will the candidates debate US Foreign Policies ? 

Many citizens of Western Countries would like to learn what Trump and Clinton think of Putin and his Russian Dreams in the Middle East and in Ukraine, and of his hopes of exporting Gas and Oil once World Prices rise a little more.  



Saturday, 15 October 2016


The whole of France has been shocked to read the private comments President Hollande shared with  two Le Monde journalists, from the start of his five year term of office. 

These "private conversations" are summarised in a Book of 672 pages, entitled (1) " A President should not say that".  It was an immediate sell-out this week and has produced shockwaves.

No one escapes the criticism of the sharp tongue of the President.   In particular Judges are described as being cowards and hypocrites !  

Likewise, serious doubts have now been raised about Hollande's intention to stand for re-election as President next May 2017.  

Socialists are embarassed and generally convinced that he has ruined all his hopes to be a candidate for a second mandate.

(1) In French "Un President ne devrait pas dire ça".

Thursday, 13 October 2016


As usual, Putin has again denied that Rusia has done anything wrong with its attacks in Aleppo recently !   This was confirmed by Vitaly Churkin, Russia's UN Ambassador who said all of Russia's strikes are "carefully targeted" ! 

Reports of the damage caused by bombs in Aleppo are horrifying !  They reveal whole neighbourhoods which have been totally destroyed and rubble being sifted to recover any surviving residents !

Russia regularly uses its United Nation Veto to prevent any proper inspection which could lead to a prosecution.   

Russian citizens are protected and totally unaware of what is going on in the Middle East.  Does Russia have a Refugee Problem ?  How many Syrian Refugees have fled to Russia ?   Do they understand Putin's aims in Syria ? 

What hurts Russians is the lack of Western goods in their shops !  Also, the cost of living is rising and the parity of the Rouble is weakening.  Foreign currency reserves are used to protect the Rouble, but they are now getting low.  

Putin hopes that the rise of World Petrol Prices will help  Russian Exports.  The West will certainly try to dampen his hopes by importing from other countries !


Wednesday, 12 October 2016


In the Political Game of Chess, President Hollande has forced Putin to retreat !   Putin had announced that he would come to France to assist at the Inauguration of the latest Russian Orthodox Church near Paris but then  changed his plans !

Hollande simply replied that he only wanted to meet Putin to discuss atrocities in Syria by Russian Troops !  At the same time Hollande was seeking ways for Putin  and Russia to be accused of War Crimes and of Crimes against Humanity in Aleppo. 

Russian and Syrian attacks have completely destroyed large areas of housing and killed indiscriminately thousands of civilians.  These attacks are deliberate, not just accidental !   Russia has regularly used its Veto in the Security Council to prevent any intervention by UNO.

The West is pondering what Putin wants to attain in the Middle East.   A clue is the fact that Russia never enters a War without obtaining more territory, like at Yalta in 1945 !



A man who has amassed a personal fortune of Billions of Dollars has obviously done something right !  As one also says, fools are often seperated from their fortunes !  This is certainly not the case with Donald Trump !

However, the principles and qualities required to make money in the Business World, differ sharply from those needed in Political and Diplomatic circles !  

The style Trump has brought to the Presidential Election Debates does not inspire the confidence of Electors !   They cannot imagine how Trump would act to solve their problems.   

How many times has Trump said one thing and then back-tracked and apologised ?  This, in the Diplomatic World, is suicide !

If Trump became President, would he not have  the ultimate responsibility to order the use of Atomic Bombs ?   Apologising afterwards would be far too late !

Is this not why American Voters are hesitating to vote for him ?


Tuesday, 11 October 2016


Traditionally, after their election, many Leaders declare they will care for all their citizens, not just the main  section of the Electorate which voted for them !  This really means they need an open mind to deal with  unexpected developments or problems. 

Does Theresa May have an open mind ?   Earlier Reports said she intends to bypass a vote by all MPs in the House of Commons to give her the official authorisation to negotiate a Brexit deal ! 

For a Prime Minister who was "nominated" but not elected, this is guaranteed to provoke  reactions from MPs, who will demand a Vote in the Commons, before negotiations can be started.

Are there not  two further steps ?
 -  Preparation of the agreed cost of leaving the EU, at the time of the Referendum, by an all party Committee.
  -  Preparation of the effect of changes in EU Treaties or in its Operating Methods, since the Referendum. 

Such information should be available before autorisation for Brexit negotiations can be requested, granted and voted. 

"Brexit" has made many other countries think twice.  They too want changes in the EU.   It is clear that the Refugee Problems must be addressed.  The fact that  mid 2017 there are General Elections in the EU, in France and Germany in particular, may change the EU.  Current Leaders Hollande and Merkel, risk being  replaced as Leaders !  

Theresa May has a clear duty to weigh the effect of any and all changes and must also respect ALL UK Electors and MPs !




Monday, 10 October 2016


What is Donald Trump trying to prove in the Presidential Election Debates with Hillary Clinton ?

He has brushed aside allegations that he is disrespectful about women but has now launched a blistering attack on Hillary Clinton's husband !  Everyone knows that Bill Clinton, who was elected US President in the year 2000, was publicly derided for his affair with Monica Lewinski.  Enough said !

In fact, were American electors not expecting other more serious matters in the Debate, notably the cost of his intended policies, which could hit taxpayers in their pockets ?

Also, what intrigues Europeans is : "What happens if Mexico refuses to pay for the cost of the Frontier Fencing to keep unwanted immigrants out of the USA ?".   Who Pays ? 



Sunday, 9 October 2016


What kind of spectacle would a future "President Donald Trump" be, based on what he has said so far as a Candidate.   He strikes fear into the hearts of Europeans, even though a hard core of his American supporters is still prepared to vote for him !

His natural language when he talks about Women, or Immigrants from Mexico, will certainly close doors in Diplomatic circles !   Repeatedly saying "sorry" afterwards is too late and not acceptable.

How could one trust such a person to negotiate for the USA or the West on the Internatioal stage ? 

Donald Trump is a Billionaire but all his money does not permit everything !    



With reference to the Cartoon published in this Blog today (ALEP... C'EST LOIN), it is a fact that neither  Russia, nor Putin, nor any Russian Spokesman has ever admitted that a mistake has occurred .  

Bombing a hospital in Alep or anywhere else cannot  simply be a mistake.  It is a Crime against Humanity !  Even in a War such an act can never be justified.

When mistakes are made, they are generally immediately followed by an appology but this has never been the case with Russia.

One can only deduce therefore, that what happened in Alep was intentional. In fact this confirms the reputation which Russian Armies have earned in the past : their devastation and the fear of civilian populations, can be read in all history books ! 




Saturday, 8 October 2016


EFTA, the European Free Trade Area, was created in 1960.  This was after some countries, like the UK, were excluded from the negotiations by the 6 original countries, which formed what is now called the EU !

The EU has changed a great deal since then, but has been stumbling in recent years !   This has climaxed with the arrival of countless desperate Refugees from the Middle East and other Migrants, from all over the world, all seeking a better future.

The unexpected Brexit vote in Britain has in fact thrown the spotlight on critical shortcomings in the EU.  The EU has not updated its basic principles in spite of the Middle East War and the Refugees.  Neither Frontiers, nor the Freedom of Movement are efficiently controled !  The reallocation of surplus Refugees by Merkel, was the last straw !

Smaller countries in the EU are watching Brexit closely.  Several were originally in EFTA, which is purely a Trading Club !   They may now be tempted to "exit" the EU and rejoin EFTA ! 




Friday, 7 October 2016


When refugees first enter the EU or Schengen Area, should they not be given only a short, fixed term right to stay ?

Theoretically, they are fleeing their homelands to save their lives and need temporary help and a shelter. 

Once installed with a job in a new country, they urge their families to join them, which is natural !  But, this is when and why some, if not all, EU countries hesitate.  Some smaller countries are obliged to refuse the additional Social Costs of any unemployable family members, even for a temporary right to stay !

The efforts of Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor and Leader of the EUROZONE block, to allocate a share of the number of Refugees, has now split the unity of the EU !   Initially, out of compassion, she invited 800 000 Refugees "to work in Germany" but, that was also to solve the dearth of workers available there for its industries !  

Alas, well over a million Refugees arrived, not only from Syria but also from other War-torn areas around the World, and not just "refugees", but  immigrants looking only for economic security and a better life !

Now, there are also other countries which are considering "Brexit" type exits from the EU !   Tougher  Frontier Controls and tougher Residency Rules must therefore be introduced ! 




Wednesday, 5 October 2016




The Conservative Conference heard a powerful  closing speech by its new Leader and Prime Minister, Theresa May, which detailed the objectives she has planned for the United Kingdom:

- She  would ensure that the Brexit negotiations  permit Britain to escape from certain obligations in International Treaties. This in not limited just to immigration.  

- Britain has always been a trading partner of Europe and played its part militarily.  This will not change.  

In the context of the problems which the EU faces at present, her speech will be much appreciated by most of the other 27 members of the EU.  Indirectly she is saying the EU must change and that Brussels wields too much power. 

On the Domestic Front, Theresa May wants more equality for all British citizens.  She criticised  Socialist policies which only favoured the Poor but punished the Middle Classes and the protective habits of the Richer Classes ! 

The least one can say is that a Wind of Change is coming, not only in Britain but in the EU as well !




Tuesday, 4 October 2016


Anne Hidalgo, the Mayor of Paris is taking measures to "Clean the Air" in Paris, by discouraging the use of Cars and Lorries, but favouring Public Transport.  Parking spaces for cars have been reduced when necessary.

However, this has led to an increase of the use of not only Motor Bikes, but also Bicycles !   A previous article in this Blog (1) has already drawn attention to the abuses of Motor Bikes, but gradually an increase in the number of Bicycles is becoming very evident in Paris ! 

Adult Cyclists seem to use roads or pavements at will and often do not respect traffic lights or one way traffic signs ! 

It is clear that legislation is necessary, together with penalties for infractions, to protect pedestrians of all ages !   

It would be interesting to know how many "dangerous" Cyclists and speeding Motor-cyclists, have been convicted during the last 12 months ?   To simply say that "the Police use their discression" is not enough ! It does nothing to solve the problem !

If Anne Hildago does not address this problem, Paris will soon look like Shanghai !

(1) Read the article "Anne Hidalgo cleans the Paris Air", dated September 28 2016.



Monday, 3 October 2016


President Hollande has said he will decide whether to stand as a candidate for his re-election as President, at the end of December 2016.

He dearly wants to be re-elected for a second and last term of 5 years, in spite of his currently very low (12%) popularity and is already clearly on the Election Trail !

But "officially" he is not yet a candidate.  Everything he says must therefore be understood as being for his function only, as the President of France !   

Therefore, if he does think that he could win, it will be due to his plans and rising tide of popularity.  Will he  then still risk all and  participate in the planned Socialist Primary Election on January, 22 and 29  2017 ?

There are already several expected Primary candidates. The Socialist left-winger Arnaud  Montebourg, Hollande's former Minister of the Economy, has announced that he will definitely take part in the Socialist Primary, and respect the result, even if Hollande wins .


Sunday, 2 October 2016


The result of the Referendum Vote for "Brexit" has created havoc, not only in Britain but also in the EU !   A  Vote has never created so much speculation, joy, horrer, animosity and regret !

For example in Britain where such a result was not expected :

-  Why are Businessmen and Politicians now worried about their futures ?  Would Britain and its Trade benefit or not, if it leaves ? 

-  Why in fact, did electors vote for Brexit ?  Was it only because of concerns about uncontrolled "Migrants and  Immigrants" and sharing Refugees ?  

-  Was it because Brussels has acquired too many "decision making rights" ? 

In the EU, member countries are also worried by some of the same problems as those mentioned above !  For example :

 -  Today in Hungary, there is a Referendum about the acceptation of "non-European immigrants" !   Other EU countries are closely watching !

 -  Some countries want to retain their Customs and Traditions and avoid all EU interference !

 -  Smaller EU countries want more control of their Frontiers.  This would entail changes EU Treaties.  

This reveals the turbulence harboured by EU citizens.  No one country can achieve any changes alone !  The leaders of France and Germany will not want any changes before their General Elections in mid 2017. 

In Britain the next General Election is due in May 2020 ! Will Theresa May choose an earlier date ?  Will she really start Brexit negotiations in March 2017 ?   Even before the election results in France and Germany ? 
In spite of all the foregoing, there is now a real clamour for change in the EU .



Saturday, 1 October 2016


For the first time, since he unexpectedly became the President of France in May 2012, François Hollande   visited Calais last Monday.  It seems as though he has discovered a problem there which needs his urgent  attention !

Many politicians have visited Calais during the last 10  years but, simply said, no one has really proposed any  effective solution, which has even slightly reduced the number of migrants, who desperately want to immigrate into EU and the UK in particular .

To close the jungle in Calais, estimated at 10 000 migrants, before the end of 2016, President Hollande proposes to transfer them to 164 reception centres which will be created  throughout France. 
There is one key solution which he has NOT dared to propose.  All the external Frontiers of the EU should refuse the entry of Migrants who do not qualify for the right to asylum.   This means the end of the freedom of movement of people entering the EU. The EU should be responsible for organising an efficient system throughout the EU.   Refugees should only be issued with temporary documentation on entry. 

There are now several countries in the EU which seek a  solution to curtail the ever increasing  number of desperate Refugees at the frontiers of the EU.  

Hollande has never dared to insist on such a solution  when with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in spite of their very close collaboration during all his time as President of France .