PRIMAIRE DE LA GAUCHE : NAUFRAGE ANNONCE

 

MERCI A FRANCOIS FILLON !

 

Dimanche 27 novembre, deuxième tour de la droite et du centre en vue de choisir celui qui sera candidat à l'élection présidentielle.

Quel que soit le vainqueur de cette primaire, un grand merci d'ores et déjà à François Fillon qui, tout au long de cette campagne, a permis au peuple de droite de retrouver sa fierté d'être français en  portant ses valeurs.

FILLON'S POWERFUL PRIMARY SPEECH !

François Fillion yesterday made a powerful final speech  in the Framework of the Republican Party Primary Election, to become the sponsored Party Candidate in next Presidential Election in 2017.

His hour long televised speech in Paris, at the porte de Versailles roused much patriotic interest ; the main points are summarised below :

  -  I am a proud Frenchman and proud of my Country,
  -  But, France is sick after years of neglect,
  -  I am not a Socialist and I do not want to seek alliances with the extreme parties,
  -  I want to encourage the revival of our Industries, 
  -  I want to attract more investment in our Industries, 
  -  I want to reduce unemployment, 
  -  I want to streamline National Overhead costs,
  -  I want to abolish the "35 hour week" law, which was the worst piece of legislation in recent French history. 

François Fillon spoke like a "Company Doctor" who had been engaged to revive a loss-making Group of Businesses !  He set out his aims and will apply his policies accordingly !  It revealed a practical approach to solving problems. 

Likewise, he wants a "no nonsense" language : "extremist Muslims" are Terrorists !  "Young delinquants" are Criminals !  

The surprises of the first round of the Primary Election on November 20, were the elimination of Nicolas Sarkozy and Fillon's comfortable lead over his rival, Alain Juppé.  Now "Opinion Polls" have widened the gap, giving Fillion 65% of the decisive Vote tomorrow, Sunday, November 27, 2016.

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FILLON vs JUPPE

 

VOL DE FUSIBLE EDF

L'audace des filous est, semble-t-il, sans limite. Madame L. vient d'en faire la désagréable expérience :

18 heures en novembre. Après deux semaines d'absence,  Madame L. rentre chez elle et s'aperçoit qu' elle n'a plus d'électricité : appartement plongé dans le noir, réfrigérateur, congélateur et ballons d'eau chaude à l'arrêt.

Appelé, ERDF intervient deux heures plus tard et constate que le fusible du boitier EDF situé dans l'escalier de service, partie commune de la copropriété, a disparu : un vol de ce type, lui assure alors le technicien de ERDF, nous en avons dix par jour à Paris ! Les fusibles volés sont utilisés par ceux à qui EDF coupe l'électricité faute de paiement.

Comment assurer la sécurité de ces boitiers installés dans des parties communes de la copropriété afin que de tels vols ne se renouvellent pas, sachant que l'accès à ces parties communes est déjà protégé par des codes ?

Interrogés EDF et ERDF n'ont su quoi répondre et ont renvoyé la victime vers son syndic de copropriété. Celui- ci n'a pas encore réagi ...

DML
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HOLLANDE CONFUSED BY SARKOZY DEFEAT !

The lightning rise in the popularity of François Fillion  was totally unexpected !  It relegated Alain Juppé the favourate to 2nd place and former President Sarkozy to 3rd : he then immediately announced his retirement from politics - for the second time !  The first time was 5 years ago after Hollande defeated him to become President ! 

Another serious casualty is Socialist President Hollande !   His first term has been a catastrophy, to put it mildly !  However he "desperately" wants to stand for a second term of 5 years because he maintains he is the only Socialist candidate with enough experience !  Additionally he is also "certain" in his mind that he could again beat Sarkozy !   He has done it once, why not again ?

He has delayed any official declation of his intentions until early December, which would be after the Republican Primary !  This has also delayed the staging of Primary Elections by the Socialist Party !  They have been scheduled for early January 2017.

If he decides to stand for re-election as President, he must take part in the Primary !  His popularity in France is at an all-time low of 14% compared with any other previous President.   His Prime Minister, Manuel Valls, has a constant popularity rating which is at least twice as high ! 

Valls has been loyal for a long time, always saying he would never stand against Hollande !  However, recently Valls was put in his place by Hollande for commenting on remarks in the book "A President should not say that..."!  

Valls may finally stand whatever  Hollande decides !   This is also the secret hope of many Socialists !

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FILLON : LA VICTOIRE DU TROISIEME ...

 

MIDDLE EAST ISSUES MUST BE PRIORITISED !

Middle East countries are fighting not just one war but several at the same time.  For many years revenge has been in the air among neighbouring countries, for old attrocities which have never been forgotten ! 

Now the ongoing callous slaughter of citizens and the utter destruction of towns and villages by the Islamic State (I S), in the name of "Allah",  increases daily and this must be stopped.   

Putin with his Russian army is helping Bachar al Assad in his fight against the I S, but also to re-establish Assad as the President of Syria.   The United Nations however, suspected Assad of Genocide in Syria, but Russia and China used their Vetoes to prevent any possible prosecution !  

Now, for this reason, some World Leaders have become hesitent to join the War against I S.  Can this really be accepted as a valid excuse ?  The two issues are not at all related, but not stopping the I S bloodshed will only permit countless more deaths and destruction !

Should the War against I S not be a priority world-wide ?  Should the solution of all other outstanding issues in the Middle East and elsewhere be put into abeyance ?  This would necessarily also include the current issues in Ukraine and the related sanctions against Russia !

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CAN THE EU "PYRAMID" SURVIVE ?

When Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, met Angela Merkel the German Chancellor in Berlin this week, Merkel told her that no Brexit discussions would take place before Theresa May officially triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. 

Merkel also said her priority was the future of the EU !   Perhaps she should also have added "together with the EUROZONE" !

After her recent statement that she would  announce on Sunday (tomorrow) if she would be a candidate in the General Election in Germany next Summer, one wonders if she really is hesitating.

Europe as a whole is clamering for changes, particularly after the invasion of Refugees from the Middle East War ! Small but growing Opposition Parties in many of the 28 countries of the EU are becoming vociferous.   Also, the EURO seems to be constantly losing its value !  How long can this last ?

The three largest Countries in the EUROZONE, Germany, Italy and France, will or could, face a General Election next year.   Will the three current Leaders all be re-elected and remain as Leaders afterwards ?

  -  Will Merkel still be chosen as Chancellor by her Coalition ?   That is not clear. 
  -  In France Hollande is at great risk of being replaced as President !  
  -  In Italy Matteo Renzi awaits the result of a Referendum on Changes to the Italian Constitution on December 4, 2016 !  If he loses, will he resign as he said he would ?   There could then be a General Election.

Nothing is very certain in the EU for the time being !  Will the governing Pyramid remain in place ?

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ELECTION PRESIDENTIELLE: QUESTION POUR UN CANDIDAT...

Les débats pour la primaire de la droite, c’est fini !

Maintenant c’est aux citoyens d’aller voter.

 

Marin

 

FRANCE : PRIMARY CONFIRMS FAVORITES but,

The Republican Party Primary debate yesterday confirmed that the three leading Candidates are Fillion, Juppé and Sarkozy.  

Polls indicate no one has a commanding lead.  One of these 3 leaders will be eliminated.  Who ?   The ultimate decision depends on who will vote on Sunday : the vote is open to any French electors who agree with the ideas of the right and the center of the Party and who pay two Euros.

There is only one female Candidate, NKS -  Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet who is a former Minister of Ecology in Nicolas Sarkozy's government.   She made some interesting  comments which others had missed and although unlikely to be the chosen Party Candidate, she could be useful in a future Cabinet Team.

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OBAMA PRAISES MERKEL IN BERLIN but....

On the European leg of his Farewell tour before retiring as President of the USA, Barrack Obama praised Merkel in Berlin for what she had achieved.  

This is clearly merited for what she has achieved for Germany, particularly by gentle way Eastern Germany was absorbed into the West, after the Berlin Wall had been breached.  Likewise she also helped German Businesses to expand.       

However, Merkel's reputation and achievements in the EU were totally shattered last year by her open invitation to 800 000 refugees to go to Germany to work, without any EU autorisation !  This was certainly out of compassion for the misery of the Refugees fleeing from War-torn Syria, but the result was that EU countries were flooded by the 1.3 million Refugees who arrived !

The Refugee Problem has created panic in many EU countries and is even threatening the future unity of the EU if fundamental changes are not agreed to EU Treaties !

Merkel will announce on Sunday, November 20, 2016 if she intends to stand in the next German elections !

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FRENCH PRESIDENTIALS : 2 NEW EVENTS !

The first round of the French Presidenial Election is 5 months away, on April 26, 2017, but meetings have already been held by aspiring candidates for many months !

This week however, has seen two new events :  

  -  Emanual Macron (EM), the former advisor of President Hollande, who then became his  Minister of the Economy and then resigned on August 30, 2016, announced he would be the  Presidential Candidate for his Movement, En Marche (EM).  This was an open secret, but he has been called a "Judas" by Socialist Party  faithfuls !

  -  François Fillon, the former French Prime Minister who faithfully served President Sarkozy for five years has suddenly obtained very good Opinion Poll ratings ;  they almost make him the favourite to be the Next President of France !  This has irked Juppé and Sarkozy, who had been up to then, the clear favourites in the Primary Elections of the Republican Party !

After the disasterous Presidency of François Hollande political commentators in France are having a field day !  No one can be sure who finally, will be elected as the next President, but there is always speculation ! 

Hollande will try to be a Candidate, but cannot expect to win : he has since destroyed the Socialist Party which helped to get him elected in 2012.

This evening the last Debate of the 7 Candidates  of the Republican Party will be televised at 20.55 CET.   The election of the two candidates for the run-off debate takes place this coming Sunday, November 20 ! 

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MAY CANNOT ESCAPE COMMONS VOTE !

There is no way for Theresa May, the UK Prime Minister, to escape a vote in the House of Commons, before she can officially start Brexit Negotiations with the EU, by actioning article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty !

Simply said, if ever she refuses any request to keep the House of Commons "informed", even secretely so that key plans are not revealed to the EU, Theresa May could quickly face a Vote of "no confidence" by MPs in the Commons !

Such a vote would be perilous for her position as Prime Minister !   It could never be a "Party Vote" because,

  -  MPs for or against "Brexit" come from all Political Parties in the House of Commons,
  -  Such a Vote is not about "Brexit", it is a Vote to confirm the principle that the House of Commons ONLY can decide if Britain should leave the EU !

No Prime Minister can avoid preparing a file to justify any sort of decision like Brexit.  Previous articles in this Blog have clearly stated that EU  decisions after the Referendum must also be taken into account in a Brexit file.  Likewise, the effect on the EU of General Elections in France, Germany and Italy next year, should not be ignored !  

To delay the start of Brexit Negotiations would seem to be a "Wise" solution for the time being !  It would certainly frustrate Jean-Claude Juncker, the negotiator for the EU in the case of a Brexit !

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MAKE EU TREATY UPDATES MORE FLEXIBLE !

The recent invasion of EU Frontiers, by migrants fleeing "Warring hot spots" like in Afghanistan, Africa and the Middle East have shown that basic principles in EU treaties are infringed ;   exceptional circumstances require exceptional solutions !   

Small countries in particular cannot support the cost of helping migrants or refugees for short or medium term stays, particularly if family members later join them. 

The article published yesterday in this Blog (1) exposed the difficulties involved when changes to EU Treaties are necessary.   The procedure  prescribed by Article 48 of the Lisbon Treaty is not designed for "urgent action in our  action-packed Real World" !

Should there not be an "urgent appeal panel" which could approve immediate and exceptional action by one or even several countries ?    In some cases the Appeal Panel could activate the start of procedures in Article 48.

The UK has voted for "Brexit" to solve its problems ; now, already, other "frontier" countries in the EU are considering "Exits" !

(1) Changes to Lisbon Treaty impossible ! 
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TRUMP: 8 NOVEMBRE 2016

 

 

Le Mont Rushmore est situé dans le Dakota du Sud. Quatre statues géantes y ont été sculptées : George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt et Abraham Lincoln ( Wikipedia)

 

Le 8 novembre dernier, un étrange phénomène s’est produit.

 

MARIN

CHANGES TO LISBON TREATY IMPOSSIBLE !

The Procedure which applies if any change to the Lisbon Treaty 2007 is envisaged, are contained in Section 48 of that Treaty.   It is very cumbersome and does nothing to   encourage any attempt to introduce even temporary legislation !

The basic principles for the EU were conceived and adopted in a period of peace after the second World War by 6 countries.  Now the EU comprises 29 countries (or perhaps 28 after Brexit !) and all changes require the unanimous vote of all countries.

Examples of little changes abound 50 years later.  The protection of EU Frontiers against unwanted immigrants or Refugees fleeing War Zones, particularly from the Middle East, has lead to the "illegal" construction of Barriers on EU Frontiers.  

Should only Frontier countries bear the cost ?   Why not all EU countries proportionately ?   Likewise a coherent effort to keep potential Terrorists out, should that not also be supervised and co-ordinated by EU personnel in Brussels ?

Smaller countries want help in this area, but....

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TRUMP AND BREXIT VOTES ARE PROTESTS !

In discussions on the unexpected election of Donald Trump as the new President of the United States, French journalists have said the "Shock" was comparable to that after the "Brexit" vote in Britain !

The inquest to identify all the reasons for Trump's victory has only started and likewise, the "Brexit Inquest" which started on June 23, 2016 has not yet really finished !

What is quite clear is that both Votes were clearly a Protest but also a Hope by Voters for a New and Better Future.  No Ruling Politicians in either country expected such a Result or its Message ! 

In the case of the USA, politicians have been warned that certain neglected parts of the lower, less rich, classes need and now even demand "changes" !

The Brexit Vote also held a clear message, but 
particularly for EU Politicians in Brussels, not just for the British Politicians in Westminster ! 

This year EU has seen Fences and Barriers built by Frontier countries to keep invading migrants out of their country and out of the EU.  They want cherished "freedom of movement" principles in EU Treaties to be abandoned and Frontiers to be firmly controled by the EU !   "NO more migrants" was also one of many surprise messages from the "Brexit Referendum".

There is a general feeling that the EU has seized too many powers at the expense of National Parliaments.  This has destroyed National Pride and National Customs and the ability of local MPs to protect their Electors !   

Should the EU really aim to become "one large family and country" or would it be better to aim for a "Federated European Union" by restoring more rights to National Parliaments and its MPs? 

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TRUMP'S WIN SURPRISES EUROPEANS !

Donald Trump's victory has surprised many Europeans and probably other people elsewhere in the World.  It seems clear that Americans really wanted a change !

After 8 years (2009 - 2016) by President Obama, a Democrat, Americans were reticent to elect another Democrat, Hilary Clinton, whose husband Bill Clinton had already been President (1993 - 2000).

Trump's brash way of speaking sent shock-waves around the diplomatic world, but perhaps not around the USA.  He is a Businessman and a Billionaire, so as one must admit, he got something right !  In the TV debates he was attacked for his morals but countered by criticising those of others !

During the Campaign, Trump was vague on the Foreign Policies he would introduce.   This is what troubles Europeans today.
                                                        
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TRUMP : AN UNEXPECTED VICTORY !

 

PUTIN FLEXES HIS MUSCLES but NATO TOO !

For quite some time NATO and The West have benignly watched Putin deploy his Russian Army forces in Eastern Europe and in the Middle East.  Now NATO has also promised to bolster the presence of its troops !  

Putin has a complex array of Aims and Ambitions which drive his policies.  These are hindered by an array of weaknesses which he cannot always prevent :  they do  stop him, but only temporarily.

His aims, his driving forces are:

 -  to maintain his own current status as a popular Leader  of Russia.
 -  to restore the former "Greatness" Russia lost when the Berlin Wall was breached in 1989.
 -  prevent more countries joining the EU, particularly Ukraine.
 -  protect Syria and the ports Russian ships can use on the Mediterranean coast of Syria.
 -  obtain more concessions for Russian troops and aircraft in Syria.
 -  use the military might of Russia to extend its influence and presence in the Middle East but  also to upstage the mixed and hesitant efforts of the West in the Middle East War !

Putin's and Russia's weaknesses are,

 -  low sales prices for Gas and Oil on World markets.
 -  sanctions by the West after Russia grabbed Crimea and its continued interference in Ukraine.
 -  the weak Rouble on exchange markets.
 -  weakening foreign exchange reserves caused by supporting the Rouble.
 -  cost of supporting troops, particularly in the Middle East. 
 -  continually rising inflation in Russia.    
 
It is clear that the difficult economic conditions afflict the Russian population and causes discontent.  Putin's brave War in the Middle East does nothing to appease the pain felt in Russia by mothers of missing soldiers, in spite of a black-out on any information.

Ultimately all the foregoing could affect Putin's popularity as Leader of Russia !    

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WILL MAY FORCE GAMBLE OVER BREXIT ?

Theresa May seems bent on forcing through the "Will of the Voters" after the 51% Referendum Vote for Brexit, but is she also prepared to gamble her future as Prime Minister ? 

After the High Court case, it is clear that Theresa May must obtain a Commons Vote before being able to start Brexit negotiations with the EU . 

At present the House of Commons contains 650 MPs, some of whom are pro Brexit and some are against Brexit.   Prime Minister May is from the Conservative Party which at present has a confortable majority in the Commons, but it is certain that on the Brexit issue alone,  she cannot count on that same majority : some in that majority are for and others against, Brexit !

Will Theresa May still take that Gamble ?  To be sure of winning the permission of Parliament, by a vote in the Commons, she will be obliged to calculate the Financial effects of all the arguments "for or against" Brexit !  Alas these, if published in any way, would reveal in advance all her intentions before Negotiations can officially be started with the EU !

There is, perhaps, still a solution !  Create an all Party Commission, to work in absolute secrecy, to calculate the Financial Effects of all  Brexit or not eventualities.  The result would be with the support of "all parties".

In fact, this is what has been missing since the start of the "Brexit or not" issue, - hard, agreed figures of the expected effect !

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EARLY GENERAL ELECTION IN BREXIT BRITAIN ?

In the British Press today there is speculation whether Prime Minister Theresa May will call for an early General Election, to give her more liberty to negotiate the UK BREXIT with the EU.   

She obviously wants to action Section 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start negotiations, on 31 March 2017, which was her planned date.

Such an Election would also confirm her position as leader of the Conservatives and as Prime Minister !  However, at present nothing is certain. 

  -  Would she obtain an increased majority for her Party ?
  -  Would she then obtain a clear mandate for her BREXIT terms after a free non-party vote by all MPs in the UK Parliament ?

She can take nothing for granted and failure of satisfying either of these conditions, could end her BREXIT negotiation hopes ! 

Waiting a little longer than 31 March 2016 is a key factor !  There are two General Elections coming, in France and Germany.   And, other countries also urgently want changes to EU Treaties.

So, should Britain not "wait and see" before choosing its option ? 

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WHY DOES MAY WANT ONLY A "BREXIT" ?

It is the duty of the Prime Minister, or any other Political Leader, to respect the Laws and Customs of his country, particularly those of its Parliament. 

No one can choose to ignore Parliamentary procedures in Britain : it is the right and duty of Elected MPs in the House of Commons to decide what a Prime Minister can do or undertake. 

This is essentially the practical effect of the High Court Ruling ruling yesterday with respect to the "Brexit or not" Referendum result !

There is a second effect, which this Blog has already underlined before !  The "Brexit" decision of the Referendum Vote was to leave the EU ; this seemed right for several major reasons on the day of the Vote ! 

However now, since that Brexit Vote in the UK, some of the other 27 EU Countries and its Leaders also want  changes for similar reasons !   Just the word "Refugees" is a perfect example !

Theresa May MUST heed what is changing in the EU !  As Prime Minister she cannot just insist that her duty is to respect only the BREXIT result !   Should Britain really leave now and then regret it ?  The cost to get back into the EU would then be much higher and the conditions different and much tougher !

In any case, it will always be the free non-party vote in the Commons which will decide "BREXIT or not" ... and also perhaps, whether Theresa May has their confidence  and a future as Prime Minister !

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HOLLANDE : LES AVENTURES DE MONSIEUR 4%

Les aventures de Monsieur 4% suite…

 

Lors de sa conférence de presse du 9 septembre 1965, le Général De GAULLE a déclaré: "Qui a jamais cru que le Général DE GAULLE appelé à la barre devait se contenter d'inaugurer les chrysanthèmes !"

 

Marin

 

A TECHNICAL "K-O WIN" FOR TRUMP ?

In this American Presidential Election all the dirty linen  of both candidates has already been amply displayed,  discussed, and... publicised abroad !  

Now, in a last minute ditch accusation, more dirt has been dug-up to in an attempt to discredit a candidate, this time Hillary Clinton.    This could destroy her lead in Opinion Polls and result in the Election of Donald Trump as President instead !  Is this "fair" for the Electors at this last minute ?

Foreign observers of the Election have perhaps been deprived of many other aspects of the debates, but have both candidates clearly set out the costs of their economic propositions ? Who will pay for the Financial Costs ?   What are the Foreign Policy plans ?

Should there not be an "official closure period" between the last Debate and the Vote by Electors ?   Should "no new information before electors Vote" be the rule, in order to stop last minute "game-changer" tactics, by Candidates or anyone else, which can then never be adequately proved or defended by anyone ? 

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