FRANCOIS FILLON : QUELLE DECEPTION !

François Fillon détruit tous nos espoirs !


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BREXIT : MAY NOW KNOWS HER LIMITS !

The Supreme Court has clearly defined the rules Theresa May, the Prime Minister, must respect if she wants to  start negotiations for the UK to leave the European Union (EU).

To trigger the start of negotiations she must beforehand obtain the agreement of the House of Commons !  Likewise, before she can sign any final agreement for Britain to leave the EU, after the negotiations with the EU, she must again obtain the autorisation of the House of Commons ! 

This means that informative debates are now due, but....!   Although true, it would not be prudent to reveal all the "secret" reasons of why Britain wants to escape from the shackles of the EU, or the upper limits of the Cost of Leaving !    Divulging such information would only simplify the negotiations for the EU !

Should the Prime Minister not create a "Brexit Committee", or a Parliamentary Negotiation Committee ? (1).

(1) Read our article :  "Beware : Brexit could take many years !"

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VALLS OU HAMON ?

 

Le vainqueur de la primaire de gauche sera probablement 

le grand vaincu du premier tour de l'élection présidentielle...

 

 

 

BEWARE ! BREXIT COULD TAKE MANY YEARS !

According to some experts, it could take up to 10 years to conclude negotiations and to determine the cost to Britain of leaving the EU. 

Theresa May personally wants to negotiate special conditions concerning Immigration, Financial Services and Trade with the EU, just to mention a few. 

Initially she also wanted to by-pass Parliament but now says the final deal would be voted on by both Houses of Parliament !  

When could that be ?   Will she then still be the Prime Minister ?

In the meantime the EU will change and Britain could also change !  There will be Elections everywhere, even  in Britain in May 2020 !

What would happen if May and her Conservatives lose the next General Election ?  Who would then get the task to take over the Brexit problem ?  Where will he find all the secret files ?

Would it not be better now, to create a Parliamentary Negotiation Committee, composed of a cross section of Leaders and Experts ?  They could also act as trusted reporters to disseminate delicate information without divulging secrets.   Also any future Elections would not necessarily lead to changes in such a Committee.  

Debates over the Brexit Deal in the House of Commons, which are open to the public and of course to EU negotiators, are obviously not a wise alternative ! 

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DONALD TRUMP IS FLYING KITES !

Beware, be cautious, before taking at face value whatever Donald Trump says !   He is perhaps "flying kites" !

In good English the sense of "flying a kite" also means saying things, which are often outrageous, just to test public opinion or the reactions of the people around you !

As a candidate for the USA Presidency he said he wanted to make America "great again" !  From his pronouncements now, it would seem this is going to be at the expense of all former and current Allies of the US ! Even Russia and Putin are jubilant at the thought !

If President Donald Trump goes too far with his idealistic pronouncements, his term as President will be cut short, even by members in his close entourage ! 

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REFUGEES : WHAT IS THE EU POLICY ?

Politicians everywhere never want to be seen refusing to help needy Middle East refugees, but at the same time they do not want the arrival and costs of countless new immigrants in their country !

This is particularly true in the EU where paradoxically the principles of the freedom of movement of people and the lack of controls at external EU Frontiers, is an open invitation to come and settle for Migrants from all over the World !

Of course one should help Refugees !  But, should strict conditions not apply ?  The turmoil in the Middle East has uprooted many people against their will.  Many have lost everything and fled just to ensure survival.

Should they not be offered safety and sustenance "for a limited period of time", until they can return to their homeland ?   Their stay should also delay any request to "immigrate" !   Would this not encourage refugees to dream of returning and of  rebuilding their country ?

Do politicians not realise that countries which have been completely destroyed in the Middle East War will then also need Financial help to recover ?  

All countries will be expected to contribute, including Russia !   Putin has helped Syria, but many other questions will be discussed before the "Spoils of War" are shared out !

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CGT: PROGRAMME D'ACTION

"La CGT bloquera toute velléité de réforme après la présidentielle"   ( le Figaro )

 

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL 2017 : WHO COULD GUESS THE WINNER ?

It is generally accepted that President Hollande's five years have been a complete  catastrophy for France.  Everyone is relieved that he will not stand for a second term.

The first round of the Presidential Election is on April 23 and the second on May 7, 2017.
 
There will be at least three "heavyweights from the Left : one from the extreme left (Melenchon), the winner of the  Socialist Primary Election on January 29 and Macron. 
 
Up to now the Favourites to reach the 2nd Round on May 7 have been Marine Le Pen of the FN and François Fillon, the surprise winner of the Republican Party primary election.  But now both are feeling the cold draught of falling popularity.

The independent Socialist, Emanuel Macron, who resigned as Minister of the Economy last August and  who formed his own Party "En Marche",  could spring a surprise and steal 1 of the 2 places everyone seeks !  His energetic campaign is drawing support and also alarming all the other candidates. 

At present it is clear no one can hazard a real guess at which candidates will be in the run-off on May 7 !                

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FRANCE : FN MUST EXPLAIN ANY "FREXIT" HOPES !

The National Front (FN) will make known in February 2017 its official policies for the Presidential Election.   

Will the "promise" of a National Referendum to decide if France should leave the EU or the  EUROZONE, be confirmed ?

To do either "FREXIT" has huge implications, which are much more complicated than the simple UK BREXIT and  will probably take much longer to negotiate than just two years !

The total cost to France of only leaving the EURO could be staggering, particularly in the initial years !  

France would need a new currency, like the Franc !  Then all its current Assets and Liabilities, which at present are  expressed in EUROs, must be converted into Francs at the applicable exchange rates !

Will the Franc have the same value as the EURO to start with ?   What will be the rate of inflation, in France and other countries in the EU ?  How  would this affect France and Electors financially in the short and medium term ?

Marine Le Pen will certainly be closely cross examined in Presidential Debates on complicated technical issues.  If she cannot reply convincingly, she will not be one of the two Candidates in the second round run-off to become the President of France on May 8, 2017 ! 

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THERESA MAY'S HEAD IS ON THE BLOCK !

The British Press this morning gives full coverage of what The Times has called the  "Mandarins Revolt" following the resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers.

He was the top British Negotiator for "Brexit" but was considered as a stumbling block, or "non Brexiteer" by the current British Prime Minister, Theresa May !

What is alarming and very rare is that so many  details of the reasons for Sir Ivan's resignation have been revealed.   

The facts and how Brexiteers led by Theresa May, chose blatantly to ignore and not heed the advice of "their Mandarins", their Civil Servants, if their advice did not serve the cause of their "Brexit Aims", is alarming and inadmissible !

It is very rare for such disclosures to be made public, but as the article in this blog yesterday (1) foresaw, for other  similar but business reasons, Theresa May's Head (and her Leadership) is on the Block !

(1) Entitled "Brexiteer May Dictates Her Will" !                                                 
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BREXITEER MAY DICTATES HER WILL !

The resignation of Sir Ivan Rogers, the top British negotiator with the EU over "Brexit", could be welcomed with a huge sigh of relief by Theresa May, the Prime Minister !   But, would it be for the right reasons !

Not many businessmen would omit to undertake a  serious valuation of the "pros and cons",  prior to major decisions which could fundamentally affect the future activities of their company and its prosperity !   

This is what shareholders would need and expect to judge Directors !   Electors also expect Politicians to provide the proof, with details, that all due diligence was undertaken before the final decision.  

In the case of Brexit, it means deciding to action Section 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start negotiations, to leave the EU but also to decide how much Britain will accept pay for recovering its Independence ! 

Theresa May wants to bypass the House of Commons because she considers that Voters in the Referendum have conferred on her the Duty, as Prime Minister, to negotiate "Brexit" and nothing else !  Is this not churlish ?

Whatever the result of the pending appeal to the House of Lords, which is expected next week, her intentions could prove to be short sighted !  

Floughting the House of Commons could lead to a "General Vote of no Confidence in Theresa May", without any mention that this was due to her handling of "Brexit" !

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SOCIALIST PRIMARY CANDIDATES FOR 2017 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

The Socialist Primary Election to select one official Party sponsored Candidate for the French Presidential Election in April/May 2017, will take place on Sunday 22 + 29 of January.

 7 Candidates, including one woman, will debate : 4 from the Socialist Party and 3 Others from allied left-wing parties. 

 The 4 Socialists are :

-   HAMON, Benoit aged 49, former MEP (Member of the European Parliament) and one-time Socialist Party Spokesman.  He is now a left-wing Socialist.

-   MONTEBOURG, Arnaud aged 54, former Minister of the Economy, who was, like Valls, a Candidate in the 2011 Socialist Primary.

-   PEILLON, Vincent aged 56, was an MEP when he was invited to become the Minister of Education.

-   VALLS, Manuel aged 54, was Minister of the Interior when he was selected to become Prime Minister.  He resigned to become a Primary Candidate.  He was in the 2011 Socialist Primary.

The 3 Others are :

-   BENNAHMIAS, - Jean-Luc, aged 62, MEP, Ecologist and founder-member of the Democratic Front.

-   PlNEL, Sylvia aged 39, MP, Minister of Housing whose work was much appreciated for encouraging investors to return to this sector.  A member of the Radical Party of the left (PRG)

-   de RUGY, François aged 43, an ardent Ecologist but he has not yet presented the program of his objectives.


During this month of January, this Socialist Primary Election will receive a blanket coverage in the Press and on Television !   It is hoped that the Primary Debates will attain the high standards set recently by the Republican Party Primary ! 

At present Valls is the firm favourite to become the socialist sponsored candidate but nothing is certain.  Remember that recently, in the Right Primary Election, the candidate expected to be 3rd, François FILLON, pipped the two hot favourites !

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HOW TO GROW CUSTOMER LOYALTY !

Feeley's Fish and Chip shop in Belfast received an order for the delivery of food, plus a request to get flu tablets from the local Chemist shop, from a Customer who was bedridden.

Feeley's revealed this on its Facebook and immediately got 8 000 "likes" !

Is this not the perfect example for small businesses and others, of how to grow "Customer loyalty", particularly in small communities ?

As one says, "going the extra mile", can be rewarding by growing one's Reputation and Customer Loyalty !

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DOES MERKEL NOW FEAR MORE I S ATTACKS ?

The Terrorist attack in Berlin last week seems to have shattered the nerves of Chancellor Merkel judging by her prompt reaction !  There have been several Terrorist attrocities in EU countries in recent years which are now  history ! 

Or is it that Merkel has suddenly realised that a German General Election will take place in the summer of 2017 ?

Whatever the reason, previous Terrorist attacks have clearly revealed that the Freedom of Circulation in the EU without systematic idenity checks on entry, is suicidal for EU citizens !   Such checks are obviously necessary not only at External EU Frontiers but also at internal EU border crossings.

This common sense approach means EU Treaties must be urgently changed and ALL EU countries must stricly apply any new rules !   Interim rules should also be made available for immediate application !  

This really is not only a major German Crisis !  BUT, German electors will want to know and see the evidence, that things are changing !   Such changes have been awaited in the EU for too long !
                       
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