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Friday, 28 April 2017

FRENCH WANT NEITHER MACRON NOR LE PEN POLICIES....


French electors feel brow beaten by all the talk they hear all day long, from Politicians and from the two Candidates fighting to become the next President of France !

Some do not want Marine Le Pen because she may take France out of the EU with a costly FREXIT !    Others fear that Macron could be a repeat of the disasterous last five years by  Hollande.  After all, Macron was his paid Adviser !

A General Election will take place on June 11and 18.  Le Pen has only 2 MPs in the French Parliamentary Assembly.  Macron has none and is currently selecting 577 Candidates - one for each constituency !   What is quite clear is that neither Le Pen nor Macron will obtain a majority in the Assembly to permit them to govern unfettled !   

This means that a coalition would be required to permit either of them to govern, but even this could be too difficult or impossible to arrange !   A "hung parliament" could be the result.

This possibility is now firing the hopes of all the other Parties in France.  They all want the means to control the next President of France, whoever it is ! 

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Wednesday, 26 April 2017

FRANCE : NOW THE POLITICAL BLAME-GAME


Leading Politicians from the Republican Right and from the Socialist Left in France, are for once agreed that Electors must vote for Macron, a Centrist, to prevent  Marine Le Pen from the Extreme Right Nationalist Front becoming the President !  

Even President Hollande abandoned his "neutral role" and publicly backed Macron, his former adviser.  He now is clearly the favourite to become his successor and the next President of France on May 7, 2017 !  

Both Parties are eager to divert the attentions of Electors towards the coming General Election on June 8 and 15 !  BUT,  the "Political Blame-Game" will take place, perhaps even sooner than the two big Parties would like !   This is the rule in Democracies !

Why does the next President not come from one of the two Parties that have ruled France since 1958 ?

It is quite clear that Hollande's catastrophic performance has sunk the Socialists ;  it has split the Party and as Opinion Polls reported, voters deserted !  But, the Republican Opposition was weak and has not really profited from this dilemma.

All Parties obviously want to win seats at the General Election, not just to frustrate but also to have the means to control the future, young 39 year old President !   But, Macron intends to nominate a Candidate in every of the 577 Parliamentary constituencies, for his new Party, En Marche !

That there could be a "hung" Parliament, with no party having an overriding majority, is already a growing fear ! 
There will be nervous political fights and conflicts !

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Tuesday, 25 April 2017

FRANCE : GENERAL ELECTION IN JUNE !


After the expected election of Macron on May 7, the  General Election for the 577 MPs in the National Assembly will take place on June 11 and 18.

Readers need to know that Emmanuel Macron (EM) created his Movement "En Marche" (EM) (On the Move) last year in March 2016 and resigned as Minister of the Economy on August 30, with the intention of becoming an Independent Presidential Candidate.   

Macron who has never stood for any election before and does not yet have a Political Party with any elected MPs in the Assembly, will select 577 Candidates from the 14 000 spontaneous Candidates notified on the Internet.

The Socialists, including President Hollande, and the Republicans, have both decided to back Macron, to prevent Marine Le Pen becoming the next President. However, they also want to ensure that they will each have enough MPs after the next General Election to control President Macron ! 

Former Socialist Ministers massively backed Macron in the Presidential, at the behest of Hollande ; is it with their private hope of again being rewarded with a Ministerial Post ?  

BUT, Republican MPs in particular want to avoid a repetition of the disasterous 5 years of Hollande, helped by his adviser, Emmanuel Macron !

There is in fact a real risk of a "hung Parliament", in which no one party has a dominant or controlling position !   A return to the 4th Republic ? 

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Monday, 24 April 2017

FRANCE : THE NEXT PRESIDENT WILL BE MACRON !


What has now become a very clear is that Emmanuel Macron will be elected as the next President of France on Sunday May 7, 2017 !

The result of the first round vote eliminated 9 candidates and left Macron to face Marine Le Pen to fight it out for the Presidency !

However, the historical fear of what the Extreme Right could undertake and the announced Policy by Marine Le Pen, which could even mean  France doing a FREXIT to  leave the European Union, has sent shivers down the backs French politicians and electors !

In particular, Fillon and the Republican Party Leaders have opted, en block, to back Macron as their choice to become President !  

Like the Republican Right, the Socialist Party also lacks a Party Candidate to become President !   Most of the Party members had already backed Macron in the first round, and will now again back the "Spritual son" of Hollande on May 7 !

BUT, this is the next problem !  Most people in France do not want again to suffer a repeat of the same catastrophic Socialism which was imposed during 5 years by President Hollande....... when his personal adviser was Emmanuel Macron !    

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Saturday, 22 April 2017

FRANCE : LACK OF JUSTICE AGAIN REVEALED


A Terrorist was shot dead on Thursday on the Champs Elysee in Paris after he had killed a policeman.  Alas, this again reveals what happens when soft justice is dispensed.   Karim Cheurfi was a recidivist,  who had spent 14 years in Prison but had broken his Bail obligations !  He should have been ordered back for a stay in Prison.

This has frequently happened before and is basically due to the lack of enough available space in French prisons !  They are overcrowded !

The solution adopted by Socialist Governments, under the Presidentcy of François Hollande, is to dispense "soft justice" :  the Police and the Judiciary are expected "to use their discretion" !  

This means where possible small offenders or criminals are not pursued, minimum prison sentences are a favoured solution, with the sole objective to permit at least serious criminals to be arrested !

It is quite obvious this Policy is not a deterrent for criminals and will never result in a reduction of Crime ! 

Not all the Candidates in the current Presidential Election campaign have clearly said that they would order more Prisons to be built !   

Would this not provide more work, reduce unemployment and create more security for French citizens ?

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Friday, 21 April 2017

BREXIT : EU WANTS TO KEEP ITS CAKE !


When Britain, with Denmark and Ireland, joined the EU on January 1, 1973 there were then 9 countries in the EU !   Britain came with its dowry and a solid reputation earned after two World Wars !   It was welcomed and recognised as being a real Partner, not only in Europe but on the International Stage. 

Since then, the Aims, Ideals and Dreams of the EU have changed !  The European UNION no longer protects its Frontiers, there is INSECURITY, there is a rampant INVASION of IMMIGRANTS and particularly for ECONOMIC reasons, the freedom of the circulation of goods and people has been adopted as a fundamental EU rule in its Treaties !

There are now 27 EU country members instead of just 9 in 1973 !    BUT, any changes to Treaties requires the unanimous vote of all 27 countries.  This has now become virtually impossible to obtain !   In fact, several countries would also like to "do a Brexit", because the EU has become moribund, stagnant !   The EU cannot change anything easily because of its own rules !

BUT, the EU, or Brussels, now wants to impose "HARD BREXIT" conditions !    It wants Britain to pay to leave the Jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg !    But, Brussels also seems to want Britain to ensure future EU SECURITY, or pay compensation ! 

Is it not already obvious that the EU must change to ensure its own future ?   Has the EU not noticed the regular increase of Nationalist Party support in recent National General Elections ?  

EU politicians must react !   EU member countries are watching the Brexit Negotiations !

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Wednesday, 19 April 2017

EU + FRANCE : SECURITY NOT GUARANTEED !


Elections and Referendums regularly take place in Europe but a discussion of THE most "fundamental anxiety of citizens", their SECURITY, in any one country or in the European Union as a whole, is always deftly avoided by all politicians !
  
WHY ?  Daily, attrocities by Terrorists in all corners of the EU, are reported, but that is all !  

Is this not due to the fact that the EU has centralised too much power ?   Are national politicans not shirking their responsibility to protect their citizens and blaming the Politicians in Brussels ?

This week the arrest of two French National Terrorists in Marseille, who were foiled while preparing an imminent attack, has revived discussions in the current Presidential Election.
 
After the Brexit, a "Frexit" by France has also been mooted by some Candidates ! 

The EU attitude in Brussels must change !  On this subject there is already growing dissatisfaction present among the remaining 27 members of the EU !


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Tuesday, 18 April 2017

FRENCH ELECTION : WILL A CONVINCING LEADER EMERGE ?

   
30% of the Electors due to vote on Sunday April 23 in the 1st round of the Presidential Election, are unsure for whom to vote !  9 of the 11 Candidates will be eliminated in this vote.

Normally several candidates are well qualified to assume this important Function of President, but not this year.  In both the Primary Elections, of the ruling Socialists Party and the opposition Republican Party, their two "hot favourites" expected to win, were instead all unexpectedly eliminated ! 

The Republicans lost Jupé and Sarkozy, the Socialists lost Montebourg and Valls !  All 4 must have been totally devastated and disappeared from the Political scene ... 

Now there is only one Candidate left who has a proven record of experience, Fillon !  He was the Prime Minister for 5 years when Sarkozy was President !

In this context one must not forget the disasterous Presidency of Hollande : was it because he had never held any Ministerial post before his election five years ago ?

Who among Fillon, Le Pen, Macron and Mélenchon could qualify for the deciding vote on May 7th ? 

One can only hope that the next President will do better than the last one !

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Monday, 17 April 2017

ERDOGAN THE LATEST LIFETIME DICTATOR !


Theoretically lifetime Dictators retain their Power until they die !   This is true, but sometimes they fail to prevent being "overthrown" by an unsuspected "putsch" ! 

Even Erdogan could already be living dangerously : his victory in the Referendum (51% - 49%) is far from being a popular Triumph !   Quite to the contrary, it is being hotly disputed in Turkey and there are already allegations of fraud in the counting of the votes !

The election of a Totalitarian Dictator like Erdogan, or others like Putin, Assad, Kim... always leads to an Iron-fist and oppressive Leadership, aimed at the liquidation of all opposition forces !  It is characterised by the total absence of Democracy in the Constitution !

This also vindicates the reticence of EU countries with respect to the wish of Turkey to join the European Union !   Likewise, it is also a vindication of the criticism levelled by EU member countries at Chancellor Merkel, when she suddenly made a deal to "remunerate" Turkey, if it stemmed the inflow of Refugees from the Middle East into the EU !

Merkel should have realised, after the breach of the Berlin Wall, that Totalitarian Dictators do not make short-term Deals !

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Sunday, 16 April 2017

FRANCE : FIRST ROUND VOTE NEXT SUNDAY !


Since the creation of the 5th Republic by General De Gaule in October 1958 there has never been so much wild and feverish speculation, over such a long time, about any Election, either Presidential or Parliamentary ! 

The catastrophic 5 year Presidential term by François Hollande has not only destroyed the French Economy but it has also split the former Socialist Party faithful.

Citizens in France have daily been faced with a continual onslaught of election fever and information for almost a year, in the Press, on the Radio or on Television !   As a complement a regularly increasing number of Opinion Poll results have also been published, together with all the nebulous interpretations they provoke !

There are 11 official Presidential Candidates, but only 4 now still have a real chance of being either of the two to qualify for the Defining second round Vote on May 7, 2017 !  They are, 

   - Fillon (Republican),
   - Le Pen (Extreme Right, National Front),   
   - Macron (Independent Socialist),
   - Melenchon (Extreme Left, Communist).

Desperate former Socialist Ministers and virtually the whole Socialist Heirarchy, have massively backed the Candidacy of Macron, who was the Economic adviser to President Hollande and  finally his Minister of the Economy.  

This last week before the vote next Sunday promises to be a hectic sprint !  

Even when the new President is elected on May 7, the Election fever will not subside !   Within  about 4 weeks the new President must call for a General Election of the 577 French MPs !                                                           .

Saturday, 15 April 2017

EU + UNO PARALYSED BY UNANIMITY RULES !


After the painful experiences of the 2nd World War, which ended in 1945, politicians were agreed that everything must be done to avoid another World War !

Even before the Nuremberg Trials had been completed,  steps were taken to create a World-wide Body, which is now known as the United Nations Organisation. 

Likewise, to promote trade and to create competitive condititions, to enable war-torn countries in Europe to recover from the scars of the War, what is now known as the European Union, was launched by 6 founding member countries in 1957 !   There are now 28 !

However, what is now painfully evident and clearly a  major handicap, in both these Organisations, is the basic rule that there must be "Unanimity" when important Action is proposed on major Issues.

In recent cases the United Nations has been frustrated by the Russian use of its Veto to prevent President Assad of Syria to be tried for Crimes against Humanity.

In the European Union, no country can refuse the entry of Migrants from other EU countries !  Refugees from outside the EU infiltrate the EU daily and this is destroying the spirit of the Union !

Briefly, the "whole World" is facing a 3rd World War, in which extremist Muslim terrorists in many countries, on all Continents, are committing atrocities daily, without any organised response from Leading Politicians or Diplomats ! 

Why are our Leaders not doing their jobs ?

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Thursday, 13 April 2017

PUTIN STILL BACKS AND SUPPORTS ASSAD !


Russian President Putin was quick yesterday to brush off fresh attempts by Rex Tillerson the top USA Diplomat, to open a new period of co-operation between the two countries !

Only one hour later Russia used its Veto in the Security Council of the United Nations to prevent the condemnation of Syria for making a Sarin Gas Attack on Rebels ! (1)

President Assad of Syria, already in the Past has  escaped trial for Acts deemed to be Crimes against Humanity because Russia used its Veto !   

Once again Putin imposes his will and prevents the United Nations Organisation from applying the Sanctions of International Law !

When a Criminal plans a crime and is helped by others, normal Criminal Laws provide the possibility to accuse those involved of "aiding and abetting a criminal before or after a crime" !

Is this not exactly what Putin has been doing ?   He is hindering the normal course of justice !   Putin also merits an accusation of "Crimes against Humanity !"   

(1)  Read the article in this Blog entitled "Sanctions after Syrian Chemical Attacks ?" 

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Wednesday, 12 April 2017

SANCTIONS AFTER SYRIAN CHEMICAL ATTACKS ?


The Times newspaper of London dated April 11, published a compehensive report which details the Syrian chemical weapon attacks during the last four years which killed countless civilians.

UN weapons inspectors went to Syria in 2013 to ensure that chemical weapon stocks were destroyed.   Assad probably did not reveal all the stocks !  Afterwards he  continued to attack the Rebels in his opposition and even used Russian made cluster bombs !

A diplomatic fight has now started to identify who bears the responsibility for the Syrian genocidal attacks on Civilians.   It is quite clear that Assad's responsibility is virtually proved and that he should face Charges for Crimes against Humanity.   But will he ever be tried ?

Putin has always been Assad's main ally.  Did he really not know what Assad was doing in Syria ?  Yet, Russian troops have helped Syria to recover some of the territories which had been conquered by the Islamic State.

As soon as Trump attacked Syria last week, to destroy Assad's chemical weapon stocks, Trump was accused of aggression by Russian diplomats in the UN, to deflect all responsibility from Assad !

Ultimately will anything happen ?   Whereas Russia wants previous sanctions lifted, Boris Johnson the British Foreign Secretary wants more sanctions to be imposed ! 

The diplomatic "blame game" has started !

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Tuesday, 11 April 2017

SINCE 2013 PUTIN HAS STIFLED ONU !


In 2013 Assad used nerve Gas to silence Rebels in Syria; when ONU wanted to send a team of inspectors to verify the alleged facts, Russia and China used their Vetoes to  prevent any violation of the Independence of Syria !

It is clear that Putin has done nothing since then to force Assad to destroy Syria's Nerve gas Stocks !   Before Trump reacted last week after the last Syrian Nerve gas attack, the Russian Diplomat at ONU was already explaining that the attack was not the fault of Syria ! 

Alas the sad photos and reports in the International Press, clearly prove the involvement and guilt of Assad and Syria ! 

It is quite clear that the use of Vetoes in the past has been abused !   When situations like this repeat themselves, when any country or person wants to flagrently hide the truth and avoid justice, a 90% or more vote by all ONU countries, should nullify the use of any Veto !

Should ONU not test the reaction to such a change now, today ?   What is the use of all the other ONU members, if Putin and his totalitarian group of countries are always able to impose their wills ? 

It makes a mockery of UNO Justice !

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Sunday, 9 April 2017

PUTIN + BACHAR IN A CORNER !


Trump's reaction to stop further Salin nerve gas attacks by Bachar al Assad on his Syrian Opposition, could have more unexpected repercussions !

Already reports indicate that Bachar and his family will flee to a special Bunker if their lives are in danger.  But, would this protect him if an International arrest warrant is issued to try him for Crimes against Humanity ?

Would Putin still be prepared to guarantee Bachar his safety, by offering him a safe address in Russia ?  Perhaps not !  Putin certainly does not want to lose the right Russia has to "park" its ships in Syrian Ports !

Will Putin and Russia not also be questioned about the Arms supplies it sends to Russian Rebels living in Ukraine, who want industrial Eastern Ukraine to become part of Russia ? 

Likewise, can Putin really expect the West to lift its sanctions, imposed after Russia illegally  snatched and occupied Crimea ?  These Sanctions hurt civilians in Russia and fester the Opposition Putin is already trying to control ! 

Putin wants to restore Totalitarian Russia to its former "greatness", but the World has changed !

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Saturday, 8 April 2017

TRUMP TEACHES OBAMA A LESSON !


One thing that Trump has achieved with his unexpected strike in Syria is stop all attemps to justify the original strikes by Bachar ! 

If Obama had reacted in the same way as Trump in 2013, Middle East History since then would certainly have evolved quite differently !     

How can any President, Bachar or not, who uses lethal Salin nerve gas to kill off the opposition in his own country, but which haphazardly also kills thousands of others of his own citizens, expect to recover the admiration of his country ?  How can anyone justify such action ? 

Is Putin proud of what Bachar has done ?  Would Putin do the same thing in Russia ?   Will he continue to back Assad ?  Will Russian ships remain in Syrian ports ?

Reports expect that Bachar, his Family and Entourage, will now go into hiding !   But, can he escape appearing in International Courts of Justice for Crimes against Humanity ?

Who could then seize power and rule Syria ?

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Friday, 7 April 2017

TRUMP ACTS AND TRUMPS DIPLOMATS !


The decision by US President Trump to order a missile attack, on the site in Khan Shiekhoun from which Bachar al Assad launched a lethal Salin nerve gas attack against Syrian Rebels, was totally unexpected by the International Diplomatic Community !

It was not the first time that the International Press had published photos of distressed, innocent Syrian citizens of all ages, fighting for their lives after a nerve gas attack.

Bachar al Assad is not fighting a war : he wants to exterminate all opposition to his regime in Syria !   He relies on the support of Putin and Russia, to be able to act with impunity.   For this reason Russia uses its Veto in the United Nations Organisation (UNO) to prevent any attempt to punish Assad.  

The use of Vetoes in this way completely destroys the competence and main objectives of UNO.   Their suppression must be examined.   A 90% majority vote instead would probably be much more significant and permit UNO to act with authority !

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WILL PUTIN + RUSSIA AGAIN BACK BACHAR AL ASSAD ?


Syrian Troops have once again been accused in the Western Press of using Sarin Gas against Rebels : this has again resulted in the death of more than 100 civilians !

In the United Nations Assembly Russia has already denied these facts.   Russia and other Totalitarian Allies will therefore use their Vetoes to prevent any Resolution leading to a Vote against Bachar al Assad or Syria !

This will again make a total mockery of UN procedures.  However a VOTE should take place.   The number of votes for and against a resolution should be recorded and published world-wide, with the names of the countries which have used their Vetoes !

One must hope that the publicity in the Western Press will become known to Electors in Russia before the  Presidential Vote next year, when Putin will again seek his re-election !  

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Saturday, 1 April 2017

FRANCE : DESPERATE SOCIALISTS BACK MACRON !

                                                                                                   
Suddenly all this week, almost every former or current Socialist Minister, including Emanual Valls, has decided to proclaim publicly, that he will vote for Emanuel Macron on Sunday 23 April, 2017. 

Emanuel Macron (EM) was initially the personal Economic Adviser of President François Hollande and then for two years became the Minister of Economy in the Valls Government.   

He resigned last August and formed his own Movement "En Marche" (EM) in order to become an Independent Presidential Candidate.

It is now an accepted fact that the Presidential Term of Hollande was a complete disaster, not only for France but also for the Socialist Party !  Hollande knew he could not stand for a second term !  

Then the Socialist Primary  Election produced an unexpected winner, Benoît Hamon, who beat all the favourites !

Alas, none of the former Socialist Ministers want to subscribe to Hamon's political policies which would only create more bankruptcy problems for France.

Macron's policies and intentions strangely resemble the Policies Hollande was introducing !

Suddenly everyone seems to fear that Le Pen and/or  Fillon could become one of the two candidates to contest the final Final Vote on May 7, 2017 to become the next President of France !   

Fillon has been continuously attacked with accusations questioning his integrity, with the hope that he would withdraw as a Presidential Candidate.

Do electors who rejected Hollande's policies really want another "Hollande type of Government" ? 

The next televised Presidential debate by all the candidates is on Tuesday April 4 ;  it promises to be "all important" ! 

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