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Saturday, 27 May 2017

FRANCE : SHOULD MPs MANDATES BE LIMITED ?


After the many scandals in French political life, not to speak of those which were never discovered, President Macron wants to tighten the lax rules, to prevent repetitions in the future.

This is admirable and generally speaking everyone, particularly Electors, will salute his efforts.

However, one proposition is to limit MPs to three mandates !  Normally a mandate is for 5 years, but it could be shorter.  Even 15 years is a short professional life.

Some MPs devote their whole lives, 40 years, to politics.  But, to limit the age of candidates to stand for election would seem correct !  

Is it not later in political life that MPs possess the experience to avoid pitfalls for their countries ?  Limiting their longevity as MPs could be a costly mistake !

Finally, is it not the right of Electors to decide who they want or not want, as their MP ? 

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Friday, 26 May 2017

OPEC EXTENDS PREVIOUS AGREEMENT !


OPEC (Organisation of Petrol Exporting Countries) has simply extended its last deal until March 2018, but does this really change anything ? 

Market Oil Prices have been controled to a certain extent in the past by Saudi Arabia, but this is financially costly !  Another key factor is whether the volume of oil produced by the 12 member countries of OPEC, can and is effectively controled.   Have any sanctions ever been imposed, if the volume of oil production of a country has been too high ?    

There are also other non OPEC Oil Producing countries in South America, as well as Russia and the USA which produce Oil profitably. 

Added to this is the certainty, in the next 5 to 10 years, electric cars will be mass produced !  This will severely affect the sales of Oil and Petrol.  

One can therefore, also anticipate that Oil producing companies may well want to invest some of their billions of Dollars of oil sale profits, to become a part of the chain of future Electricity Suppliers !         

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Thursday, 25 May 2017

TERRRORISM : WHEN WILL LEADERS ACT ?


Is the visit to Europe of the US President Trump, just after the Muslim Terrorist attack in Manchester, not the perfect occasion to discuss a realistic Plan of Attack, or Plan of Defence, on an international basis to counter World-wide Terrorism ?

Just talking, without realistic action afterwards, has never solved anything ! 

To be blunt, the problem the World faces is "Terrorist Attacks" which  destroy the Human Rights of innocent Citizens, their right to live ! 

The problem is NOT at all to ensure the Human Rights of Terrorists, whether they have killed or were only at the planning stage, to kill haphazardly !

When Terrorists are caught, should they not be locked-up in a secure, specialised Prison without any possible contact with other types of inmate ?   Reports exist of Muslim Terrorists who while in prison, have converted gullible inmates to their cause !

The next obstacle then becomes the lack of prison space to house "terrorists" apart from other inmates !  To solve this URGENT problem, should countries not relocate all the petty criminals from just one Prison, which could then be destined temporarily to house only Terrorists !

Too much "Soft Justice" is already dispensed in some countries just to prevent overcrowded prisons !  The only way to avoid overcrowding and to safeguard the rights of Electors, would seem to be for Politicians to order more prisons to be built ! 

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Wednesday, 24 May 2017

WHAT DO TURKEY + ERDOGAN WANT ?


Turkey, a member of the NATO Alliance, has vetoed an intention to permit Austria, which is not a member of NATO, to participate in NATO military exercices. 

Turkey has a pending application to join the EU, but will the recent diplomatic activity of the Dictator of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, not provoke a complete reassessment by the West to decide whether Turkey is still a valid Ally ?  

Is Turkey primarily interested and orientated by Russian objectives and policies, or those of the West ?   It should be noted that Turkey regularly purchases its military requirements from Russia. 

Would the possibility to dock Russian vessels in a Turkish port on the Mediterranean coast, not attract  Putin and Russia ?  Will that not be the next move ?

What is quite clear is that neither a Dictator, nor a Totalitarian country like Turkey, correspond with the ideals of European Union Treaties or with the aims of NATO.

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Tuesday, 23 May 2017

BRITAIN : TERRORIST ATTACK KILLS 22 !


Terrorists have once again struck:  22 people were killed and at least 50 others were injured at a packed pop concert by Ariana Grande in Manchester.

One cannot always deter terrorists, particularly  those who have the intention to die as "heroes of Islam" when they explode their bomb.

They are are generally part of an Extremist  Organisation which is at war with all countries.  They want to impose their extremist interpretation of Islam.  
  
Yet, many countries world-wide have abolished the Death Penalty, inluding all the Countries in the EU.  Alas, to introduce even an exception to EU rules is virtually impossible : the Unanimity of all EU countries is required for any change, even a small exception. 

This simply means there is no real deterrent left to dissuade Terrorists, or even recidivist killers !  Should surviving killers and those who have  aided them in their murderous enterprises, not be executed ?  

If Britain leaves the EU, after its "BREXIT", would it not be simple "Common Sense" for Britain to adopt the "Penalty of Death", for Terrorists and others who are guilty of aiding and abetting them in mass killings ?  

Would other countries not follow suit, to provide more security for their citizens ?
 
Finally, why should taxpayers be obliged to bear the cost of Terrorists, who then languish in Prison for the rest of their lives ?

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Monday, 22 May 2017

FRANCE : MACRON'S FIRST LAW, ON MPs MORALS


The first "Macron law" will introduce a moral code of conduct to be observed by MPs .  

The law will ensure a complete control of MPs' official Expense Allowances which previously were not subjected to any official scrutiny or anything like an independent "audit".

Other measures will ensure MP's probity : for example, employing family members will be forbidden.  That will avoid a repeat of the Fillon scandal recently.  This is, therefore, a "common sense" solution.

Further fine details of this projected law will become known soon. 

This Law will be one of the first votes in the next  National Assembly, after the Election on June 18 .      

The very fact that at last, MPs' expenses will be properly controled and justified, will certainly endear Macron to all right thinking electors !  This will also improve the chances of his "Republican En Marche" candidates !

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Sunday, 21 May 2017

FRANCE : UNIONS READY TO FIGHT MACRON !


The way Trade Unions in France are now ready to judge any measures by the Macron Government, is strangely similar to what Margaret Thatcher faced when she was elected in 1980 !

Britain had been faced with a six month bus strike, which the Socialist Prime Minister, James Callaghan, was incapable of stopping !   His Government was defeated and Thatcher was later obliged to "clip" some Union Rights.

The French President may use edicts to impose certain changes quickly and Trade Union Leaders have already said this could lead to opposition from Unions.   Macron was the Minister of the Economy and also President Hollande's advisor : he thus already has front line experience of stubborn opposition from Unions. 

But, French Unions are quick to use Strikes and Marches to protect the Rights of Workers which sometimes were obtained many years ago. 

In a changing world such Rights sometimes can stifle Employers, just when they are expected to act, to make their companies more competitive, with the sole aim to avoid a Financial disaster like a Liquidation.

In such cases Trade Unions must also realise that they too, have obligations to help ensure the future of a business ! 

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Saturday, 20 May 2017

FRANCE : NOW A "HUNG" PARLIAMENT ?


Bombshell upsets culminated in the recent election of President Macron, but others will now also have a profound impact on the General Election campaign of the 577 MPs for the National Assembly.   This officially starts on Monday May 22, 2017.  

Any serious predictions of who will win are not really possible for several reasons :

  -   Macron has created a new Party which will contest  526 of the seats .

  -   Any Candidate must renounce his function of Mayor if he is elected as an MP: more than 200 former sitting MPs have decided not to stand for re-election in June this time : some have retired but some prefer to remain the Mayor of their town.
 
  -   The disasterous 5 year Presidency of Hollande has created serious splits and destroyed the Socialist Party.

  -   The Republican Party on the Right has also suffered after a few MPs joined Macron's "En Marche" Party. 

Also, there is the fact that every Party since 1988, which presents at least 50 candidates, can obtain Financial aid to cover operating costs, of 1,42 euros for each vote obtained in the General Election during 5 years, even if no one is finally elected.  That also explains the numerous candidates standing in this election. 



The general impression today is that no one party alone could obtain a majority.   That means there could be a "Hung Parliament" !

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Friday, 19 May 2017

PARIS "NO-GO ZONE" : TOURISTS BEWARE !


Not for the first time alas, another report, this time in the Le Parisien newpaper, draws attention to a "no-go zone" in the La Chapelle area in the north of Paris.

The Boulevard, under the arches of the Metro, between the stations Barbes Rochouart and La Chapelle, have for a long time been infested by Drug Dealers, Pimps and Migrants.  Local residents, in particular women and children,  already avoid the area behind the Gare du Nord !

Tourists are attracted to the Pigalle and Anvers Metro stations, but they should also be advised not stray further later in the day ! 

Once again the absense of security, the soft Justice dispensed by magistrates,  because Prisons are already overcrowded, underlines what Electors now hope and expect their new President Emmanuel Macron, will correct.

In the past Police have sometimes intervened heavily, but no new prisons were ever planned !

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Thursday, 18 May 2017

NEXT WORLD ECONOMIC CRISIS COULD BE......


The next world crisis could be provoked by the lack of the electricity required for "electric cars". 

The knock-on effects would be that less petrol will be needed for less petrol cars.  Also electric vehicules with simpler engines would be easier to service.  

This means that Petrol production will necessarily fall,  like the number of garages required to service cars.

Are Political Leaders prepared for the next "World Crisis" which they and their country can expect ?   Does the "motor industry" world-wide not make an important contribution to tax revenues ?   What could be taxed instead ?

Have any politicians budgeted for the  investments needed in the near future, to increase electricity production ?   More Power Stations with increased capacity will be required.  Or do they just hope that those needs could be "imported" ? 

Such a crisis would also have a direct effect on  "unemployment" and social costs .

One must not ignore that the Continent of Africa and other less developed countries, will also  require huge increases of electricity just to satisfy their growing basic needs.
    
This is the future of our World and Planet ! 
                                             .         

Wednesday, 17 May 2017

FRANCE : MACRON DYNAMITES OLD HABITS !


The shockwaves after the unexpected election of Macron as the new President of France have not abated. 

To imagine that in April last year he started his Political Party "En Marche" from scratch, then resigned as Minister of the Economy in August,  to then launch his Campagne and finally become the next President of France, is astounding ! 

The disasterous term in office of François Hollande finally destroyed his Socialist Party and even its Coalition.  But, Macron still has other other objectives to attain.

He must and is, forming a "temporary" Government at a time when his own new Party does not yet have any MPs.   And, by nominating a Prime Minister from the Right, he has now also destabilised the Republican Party. 

All Parties are now selecting their Candidates for the  General Election which officially starts on Monday, May 22, 2017.  The deadline for registering a Candidature is Friday, May 19.   Only then will we learn how many have finally opted to stand for another Party.

No one knows what the Result of the Election on June 18 could be !   The "temporary" Government will probably have to be modified.   Will there be a "hung" National Assembly ?   Or could an acceptable Coalition be a quick but evident solution ?

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Tuesday, 16 May 2017

MERKEL + MACRON WILL CHANGE THE EU ?


Merkel and Macron want to change the EU, which is encouraging, but What, When and How, are real questions for which EU citizens still need answers ! 

There are several EUs :
  -   The Eurozone countries and the others,  
  -   The large Eurozone countries which govern and the other smaller countries !
  -   The non-Eurozone countries, without Britain, which are mainly small and only have a minority vote in the EU !

Just what Merkel and Macron really want to change  remains to be explained and that will probably be delayed until after the General Elections in June in France and in September 2017 in Germany !

The main points, which need urgent attention, are well known : 

  -   Secure Border Controls, throughout the EU, for goods and people, by all countries.
  -   A clearly defined EU-wide Immigration Policy.
  -   An EU Defence Policy against Terrorist Aggression.
  -   A revision of now outdated Principles in EU Treaties.

Obvously there are many other points, but a real basic question which needs to be considered is : "Must there always be UNANIMITY" for all EU decisions ?

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Monday, 15 May 2017

FRANCE : PHILIPPE NEW PRIME MINISTER


President Macron has chosen Edouard Philippe as his Prime Minister : he is from the right-wing "Republican Party" (LR) and Alain Juppé  was his mentor.

The new Prime Minister will now form a Government, which could be reshuffled after the Election on June 11 and 18. 

At least 20 LR have favourably reacted to this nomination.  This balances the numerous Socialists who recently joined the "Republic en Marche", the Party Macron recently formed.  Their defections have split the Socialist Party !

Will the appointment of Edouard Philippe  destabilise the  LR party as well, which was  Macron's aim ?

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Sunday, 14 May 2017

EUROVISION SONG CONTEST DISAPPOINTS !


The format of the Eurovision Song Contest has changed completely since it started some 40 years ago !   Is the present format really the best option ?

Is it still a contest to elect "the best song and best tune sung by the best singer", or are there other priorities ? 

In the "show" presented on Television last night, 26 countries, including Australia (!), were competing.  Of these 19 contestants "sang" in "English", but their vocal use of this language was far away from the English one heard in "My Fair Lady" !   When it was audible, it was a very poor copy of the American English to which one is accustomed and one has admired in US musicals ! 

Were Contestants obliged by the Organisers, to be surrounded by "dancers", even "acrobats" and others, with the orchestra imposing a loud music beat, just to ensure a Spectacle ?   26 such acts, one after the other, were really overbearing and spoiled the occasion ! 

Should the Singers, with their interpretation of the Song, not be THE REAL STARS on an occasion like this ?


PS : The winner was Salvador Sobral of Portugal, who sang in Portuguese.  2nd was Bulgaria and 3rd was Moldova : both their artists sang in English. 

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Thursday, 11 May 2017

FRANCE : SOCIALISTS IN TOTAL TURMOIL !


After the election of Macron as President of France, even hard-core Socialist Party members seem to be totally lost and no longer seem to know where to look for their next Leader !

This is one just one part of the disasterous Legacy that François Hollande has left after his unexpected election as President 5 years ago !  The other main part of the legacy he has left, is the disasterous state of the French Economy !  

Hollande strongly backed Macron against Marine Le Pen and urged (even ordered) his former Ministers to vote for Macron : they all understood the message !  One can say Hollande was totally unethical, to intervene like this !

A General Election will take place in France on June 11 and 18.  Macron's Party now called "REPUBLICANS en Marche" will have a candidate in each Constituency !

Those Socialists who had hoped to join Macron, cannot really expect to be selected :  the list of 577 candidates was closed yesterday, May 10 !  They could join his Party if they have resigned their membership of the Socialist Party, but will not be automatically selected, even for their own previous constituency where they were  Socialist candidates !   This is understandable !

At the General Election there could be one or two or more new Socialist Parties !                                                                   .          

Tuesday, 9 May 2017

WOULD MERKEL ACCEPT REVISION OF EU RULES ?


Many Member Countries are anxious that the EU could collapse if its Rules and Principles are not soon revised.  There are two main concerns, 

  -  Security Controls to limit Immigration and Terrorism.
  -  Restoration of the Rights for National Parliaments to determine local Economic Policies.

A UK BREXIT is already being discussed and the possibility French a FREXIT has been avoided after the election of Macron as the new President.  BUT, are there not other countries, particularly small ones, which would also like to EXIT because big EU principles prevent them solving their small problems ? 

When EU frontiers are not controled in order not to hinder the sacred Economic principles of the Freedom of movement of Goods and People, how can EU countries, particularly the small ones, absorb the consequent costs ?   It is worse than leaving the front door of a private home open !

Germany is virtually the richest economy of the EU and Chancellor Merkel its Leader.  But she is also the prime leader of the EU and the Eurozone and must work with other Leaders on EU needs !    Germany needs selected, qualified immigrants for its Industries and for its Export Sales ! 

It is quite clear that what Merkel needs and wants for Germany, is probably not the same as that which other EU Leaders want for their Countries !

So when will things change ?

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MACRON, THE NEW FRENCH PRESIDENT....


Last night, after the euphorie had slightly calmed after the election of Emmanuel Macron as the new President of France, a factual film of events from all periods of his short 39 year life could be seen by TV viewers.

Without any comments, it revealed his persuasive analytical style and determination, when he spontaneously and impartially tackled new problems while facing electors or political foes ! 

One also realises that his unexpected rise in the last 12 months to become President, is not really surprising : it is something which France really needed !  Out with the tried and tired Old Parties and Political Leaders.  In with perhaps the new touch of a Political Genius !

Before the next General Election on June 11 and 18, there will again be numerous political intrigues !

Old Parties will all try to ensure their survival to be at least part of a "hung Parliament" if no Party gets a working majority.   But, some politicians will defect to other Parties to ensure a better chance for their personal ambitions !   And yet others will retire or unexpectedly lose their seats !

Finally, Macron's new Party "En Marche" (On the Move),  will represented by their Candidate in each of the 577 constituencies !   Could "En Marche" even get a majority ?  That remains to be seen ! 

But if necessary, Macron could negotiate a working majority with a "Coalition" in the Parliament !   He does have that persuasive ability to achieve this ! 

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Sunday, 7 May 2017

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL : HOLLANDE REELECTED !

 
Congratulations to François Hollande for his 
reelection via his spiritual son Emmanuel Macron.

But, will Macron retain him as his Special Adviser ?

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Saturday, 6 May 2017

DRUGS, RECORDS AND MONEY = PRESSURE FOR COMPETITORS !


All Sports have been radically changed by the Money which Young competitors can win, particularly at the top levels of Sport !

Gradually, since the 1950s, professionalism has grown and amateur sport is now for youngsters or for less popular disciplines.

To remain at the top level, competitors are obliged to increase the time spent on training and discussing tactics, especially in their clubs.  This sometimes leads to the use, even abuse, of drugs and unjustified medicines.

Competition is always fierce : not winning or being regularly in the "first team" means earning less money !  When drug testing was first introduced some top stars flatly refused to be tested !   In the Cycling World, there were some famous culprits !

The lack of enough serious, official testing, or testing  only on a sample basis, means cheats can still escape punishment.

BUT, the huge sums which competitors can earn, during a short sporting life, "while they are top stars", can end abruptly !   This does worry some of them, even while they are still active, but only too few !  

Reports of a few such "broken stars" have begun to appear in the Press.  These stars are finally without money, untrained and unable even to hold down a simple job !  Some end up as alcoholic wrecks, but some have sought counselling ! 

The very high earnings of these very "Young Stars" are almost certainly taxed !  But, do they ever get any spontaneous, free counselling on a timely basis ?  They give all they can, but has the System not failed them ? 

Which Civil Service department could be charged to help them ?       

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Thursday, 4 May 2017

FRANCE : CANDIDATES WITH SECRET PLANS !


Both Candidates in the ultimate face to face Debate last night, presented half-baked programs of what they "could" do, but not what they "will" do !

Likewise there were no hard cost figures nor any clear indications of how their programs will be financed.  Will it be with more National Debt or higher taxes ?  Who will have to pay ?

Emmanuel Macron throughout his campaign has lectured his audiences with all the best principles needed to solve French problems.   This makes people dream, but what he preaches is not a promise of what he "will" do as the President !

Marine Le Pen severely attacked Macron because he was Hollande's Adviser and Minister of the Economy during his disasterous 5 years as President.  She is not alone and many electors hesitate to vote for Macron fearing he might repeat more of the same pain !

Macron counterattacked Marine Le Pen over her original intention, now half abandoned, to leave the Euro and the Eurozone and to adopt a New FRANC.  Holding a Referendum and devaluing the New FRANC to help Exports is difficult to justify and could be very costly ! 

However, Le Pen is a Member of the EU Parliament and she realises, quite rightly, that the EU must change to survive.  Macron is a convinced Europhile who thinks France needs the EU !               

As an observer one can regret that some problems were not covered or sufficiently aired.  Neither candidate  proposed acceptable plans to correct the limping French system of justice because of its overcrowded Prisons !  More planned Security against future I S Terrorist Attacks was also too quickly discussed.
        
The general opinion seems to be that Macron remains the firm favourite to win the Presidential Election on Sunday.  BUT, undecided floating voters could still make this a closer than expected Election !

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FRANCE : THE PRESIDENTIAL "SLAP AND TICKLE" DEBATE !


The last Debate between the two Presidential Candidates, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, which was televised last night, was more like a "Punch and Judy" show !

Both wanted to destabilise each other with slap and tickle style remarks, but on the whole their debate fell short of the conduct expected of a future President of France.

Each Candidate wanted to destroy the program of the other, but neither convinced when presenting his own plans. 

Both failed to find "killer style" remarks like those produced by Giscard D'Estaing in 1974 and Mitterand in  1981.

Macron was the favourite at the start of the Debate and Le Pen failed to fell him.  BUT this is not the end of the saga : on May 7, France will elect the President and in June there will be a General Election of MPs. 

Will there then be a "hung" Parliament, with a "hung President" ? 

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Wednesday, 3 May 2017

COULD FRANCE LEAVE THE EUROZONE ?


Whether France could successfully leave the EUROZONE and the EURO, is THE problem that Marine Le Pen, Leader of the National Front (FN), has failed to explain to electors !

Clearly, everything is possible, but HOW and at what COST, are the explanations which at present are lacking.

Again, very, very simply, as soon as France leaves the EURO and adopts the FRANC as its currency, all the Receivables and Payables (long term or short term) in the National Accounts and also in French Company Accounts, will become "foreign" currency balances (just like any other US dollar items) to be liquidated in that foreign currency, i.e. the EURO !

To protect the FRANC and to dissuade international  speculation, the parity of the FRANC must be pegged to the EURO for at least a year !   This would permit the liquidation of current foreign balances.  BUT, even then the National Bank of France will register exchange losses (and also profits) when protecting the FRANC.

Such an operation, adopting the FRANC, must be done secretly to avoid speculation on Financial Markets !  It cannot await the publication of the Result of Electors after a Referendum !

Likewise, the Costs of this Operation are difficult to determine.   Again, France leaving not only the EURO but the EUROZONE, will also entail costs !

The benefit of "depreciating" the FRANC to reduce production costs in French Industries, to make France more competitive, cannot be envisaged immediately. 

Does this not also explain that calculating the cost of adopting the FRANC, will need time, even for practicing professionals ? 

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Tuesday, 2 May 2017

FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL : HAS MACRON ALREADY WON ?


This Presidential Election has seen the unexpected elimination of all the original favourites, Juppé and Valls at the primary election stage and Fillon in the first round. For the first time the right will not be represented by a Candidate. 

The last Televised Debate between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron before the final vote on Sunday, will take place tomorrow evening at 9pm French time. 

Will it change the anticipated result which makes Macron the certain winner ?  Probably not !

This explains why all the Political Parties are already  focused on the coming General Election in June. 

They all hope that it will result in a "hung Parliament", which would permit MPs to control what the President would like to change !  

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GB BREXIT + MAY and EU CONDITIONS !


The EU is desperately trying to punish Britain if it persists with its aim to leave the EU !   For "starters" the EU seems to be suggesting that the cost would be at least 60 Billion Euros ! 

Has Jean-Claude Juncker or the EU provided the details of how this cost of 60 Billion was calculated ?

To start negotiations with the obligation to reduce or increase this "estimated cost" is not realistic !   Is it right to punish Britain now, when at a later date the EU could decide to change the current basic rules and problems which have provoked the Brexit request ?

At present the EU has a multitude of problems, even in the EUROZONE !  To say the only concern is the arrival of Refugees from the Middle East is an illusion !  ISIS   Terrorists will also have to be controlled by the EU !

The absense of Frontier Controls and the Freedom of Movement of Goods and People are ideals which must sooner or later be redefined. 

If nothing changes, there will be further BREXIT style EXITS !   Even the revival of EFTA (European Free Trade Area) could be provoked by the arrival of other dissatisfied EU member Countries !

The EU cannot really survive without changing some of its Rules ! 

The Cost of a Brexit must be detailed and also any repayment conditions, as well as interest costs !

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Monday, 1 May 2017

GERMANY : WHY ONLY A LIMITED BURKA BAN ?


The German Parliament has adopted a Law which partially bans wearing a Burka in certain places "wherever it is legally possible" to "protect Germany's dominant culture" !   

This limited ban therefore applies to "Civil Servants, Judges and the Military" !

Such a partial ban seems to be misguided,  particularly after the Terrorist Attacks which recently started in Germany, but which have been frequent in other EU countries for the last 5 years !

Are Merkel, de Maizière and German MPs totally unaware of the War the Islamic State is fighting world-wide against non-Muslim countries and against EU countries, with Terrorist Attacks ?

Why does the German Parliament not pass a Law which bans wearing the Burka or any other garments, in public places if they prevent the facial identification of any Man, Woman or child ?

Would that be "impossible legally" anywhere in the EU ? Would that not be an efficient way to protect the German "dominant culture" while also ensuring better security for all people living in Germany ?

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