UK ELECTION INQUEST : WHY WERE ALL OPINION POLLS WRONG ?

Preceding the General Election last week, every National Opinion Poll forecast that the result would lead to a "hung Parliament".   

This fomented endless speculation by Politicians, Electors and Journalists alike, of what could happen afterwards when the final and true results of each party become known after the Vote.  

The simple fact that all pollsters were agreed on the outcome of the future result gives the impression that they were copying each others "results" or collaborating in one way or another ! 

There are two basic rules which "National Opinion Polls"  organisers seem not to have respected .

1) The population of voters used in the sample was too small or not wide enough nationally.

2) Exceptional factors were not identified and excluded from general population samples, and then sampled separately .

The perfect example in this General Election was Scotland. There was a wild swing of 40 seats from Labour to SNP (Scottish National Party) and this was expected beforehand. (1)  The Liberal Democrats also lost seats to SNP.

The Opinion Polls published do not seem to have taken into account properly the effect of this exeptional loss, this handicap, of 40 Seats on Labour's hopes of winning the Election.  When the National Polls were published,  Labour and the Conservatives were always reportedly "neck to neck" in the race ! 

A lot of worry and speculation could have been avoided .  One could also wonder if the Sponsors who ordered the Polls were satisfied with the information they obtained .

(1) Read article dated 29 April 2015, "Scottish vote could  surprise many".                                

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CAMERON'S OUTRIGHT VICTORY A RELIEF FOR UK !

The uncertainty of what "Coalition Options" might be available in the event of a hung Parliament, as predicted by all the Opinion Polls, was finally avoided by the Electors !

David Cameron and his Cabinet were rewarded for their efforts during the last 5 years and this was much to the relief of the country as a whole ! 

The unsavoury bargaining which which takes place when a Coalition must be formed, has been avoided !   Yet before the result, every Party in this Election was sure that they could  "perhaps" become part of a Coalition ! 

The next 5 years will not be plain sailing but they will give the Government the chance to consolidate the progress already made to restore the British Economy.

There is however one serious obstacle !  To negotiate changes to EU Treaties and their underlying principles will take time !   It is undeniable that the world has changed during the last 30 to 40 years and that changes are necessary.  What is also true is that there are other countries in the EU which would back Britain.  

The promise to hold a Referendum in 2017 on whether Britain should stay in the EU or leave, appears timewise, to be very optimistic ! 

Such negotiations will take much longer than expected because some Leaders, in particular Angela Merkel, stoically refuse to accept that any change whatsoever is necessary !

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UK ELECTIONS 2015 : THE SCOTTISH EFFECT !

After rejecting the Referendum vote for Scottish Independence in September 2014, electors have now  voted massively for the Scottish National Party (SNP), which has obtained 56 of the 59 seats available in Scotland ! 

This represents a favourable swing of 50 seats since the last General Election in 2010 but merits an explanation !

Gordon Brown, born in Scotland, was the Labour Party Leader and Prime Minister, having taken over from Tony Blair when at last he decided to "go" in 2007 !   The British economy at that point was already in dire straits !  
At the General Election in 2010, Scotland massively voted for Brown and the Labour Party obtained 43 seats in Scotland, but in spite of this, Labour still lost the Election !

After that election Ed Miliband replaced Brown as leader of the Labour Party, but he has lacked the charisma required and failed to conquer the Labour Party faithfuls !  This is one reason Labour lost in 2015 !  

This year the person who has impressed the Scottish faithfuls is Nicola Sturgeon !  She is staunchly Nationalist and the Leader the SNP needed !  It is natural that she would attract and obtain the Votes Brown had in 2010. 

Some of these electors, however, voted against Independence in the Referendum last September !  This is something she must heed and never forget !

Labour lost their 43 seats in Scotland and this again partly explains their disaster yesterday ! 

However Nicola Sturgeon, (who is only a Member of the Scottish Parliament) with 56 SNP MPs in Westminster cannot really expect that ALL these extra votes will support another attempt at Independence for Scotland !

If there is another attempt by Scotland to leave the UK, is this not an issue when "all" UK electors should be entitled to a Vote ?   The same principle should even apply if the object is only "more Regional Independence and Responsibility" !
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LA VICTOIRE DE DAVID CAMERON !

"Me, Prime Minister", avait débité Ed Miliband de sa voix monocorde.  Toutefois copier la longue anaphore de François Hollande, "Moi, Président de la  République"  n'aura pas porté chance à Ed Miliband qui vient de perdre les élections au Parlement britannique. 

Les britanniques ont ils craint qu'avec les travaillistes au pouvoir le Royaume Uni ne ressemble à la France socialiste de François Hollande ?

La victoire des Conservateurs est un message adressé à toute la Zone euro et à la France en particulier !

DML

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UK ELECTION 2015 : VOTERS WERE NOT DUPED !

The unexpected victory by the Conservatives has confounded all the Polls !  This is due to the perspicasity of the voters who were not duped by the flagrant promises of certain Parties and politicians, which the UK cannot at present afford ! 

The fear was that David Cameron and his team would not be able to finish the job started 5 years ago after the "Modern Labour" Party was ousted from power and which revealed that the UK was in a complete mess and totally "insolvant" !  Voters have clearly confirmed David Cameron's mandate ! 

All the Countries in the EU are closely watching the UK !  Some are envious that the UK has progressively improved its Economic performances, but others regret that all the measures in the EU and EUROZONE have not been crowned with success !    The Mandate of Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels promises to become a bumpy ride !
                                                                                       
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ELECTION AU ROYAUME UNI : COMMENT VOTENT LES ANGLAIS ?

Jeudi 7 mai, les britanniques élisent les membres du Parlement.  L'occasion de rappeler, comme nous l'avions déjà fait au moment des élections européennes, le particularisme des modalités du vote.

En France, avant de mettre son bulletin de vote dans l'urne, il faut présenter une pièce d'identité avec photographie. La présentation de la carte électorale n'est toutefois pas obligatoire.

En Angleterre, pour voter aucune pièce d'identité n'est exigée (et pour cause, la carte d'identité n'existe pas) et la présentation de la carte d'électeur n'est pas non plus requise. Il suffit de donner son nom et son adresse au bureau de vote avant de glisser son bulletin dans l'urne. Dans ces conditions, il est donc possible d'envoyer un ami complaisant qui votera à votre place !

On est loin du formalisme qui accompagne en France le vote par procuration !  

On imagine sans peine les possibilités de fraude qui s'ensuivraient en France en l'absence de vérification d'identité préalable au vote...  

DML

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"GREXIT" AND UNLIMITED REFUGEES DO NOT FRIGHTEN EUROZONE !

Speculation on the future of the EURO and the EUROZONE is rife at present but Angela Merkel and Jean-Claude Juncker remain firm and want to believe there is no crisis ! 

This may be true, but within days or a few weeks, the crisis in Greece will come to a head !  Will Greece have to opt to leave the EUROZONE or will its debts be written-off by Eurozone creditors ?  Greece at present is no longer solvent, it is totally bankrupt ! 

The EUROZONE trembles not only because of a possible "Grexit" but also because the parity of the EURO has fallen by about 20 % during the last few months !  Will the Trillion Euro investment programme of the EU Central Bank stimulate an EU economic recovery, or only create inflation ? 

This problem by itself would normally be a major preoccupation, but the prospect of the arrival in  the EU of hundreds of thousand refugees, mainly in Italy, fleeing the opression of the Extreme Islamic State, represents a serious problem which must be addressed !  

All EU countries are concerned but Chancellor Merkel and her protégé Juncker refuse to envisage changing EU treaties relative to the freedom of movement of people !  It seems  ignoring this agression by the IS is easier than tackling changes in EU treaties ! 

However, the indirect cost of IS agression will  ultimately also weigh its part in the defence of the EURO on internationoal Financial markets !  The Council of EU Leaders must therefore, recognise this and the risks involved, particularly if no action is taken or planned !  

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