Tuesday, 15 December 2015
Monday, 14 December 2015
REGIONAL ELECTIONS IN FRANCE : WHO WON ?
In the Regional Elections the Socialists won six Regions, the Republicans (LR) on the right won seven, whereas the Extreme Right (FN), which one week ago was leading in six Regions, ended up not winning any Region at all !
Yesterday 58.3% of the electorate voted, which was an increase of 4 million more voters over last week, when only 49% voted.
However, the Republicans owe their victory in 4 Régions to Manuel Valls the Prime Minister, who ordered all lists of Socialists which were in third place last week, to withdraw. He then urged ALL Socialist electors to vote for LR to prevent FN from winning any Region ! It was a gamble, but one which achieved what he wanted !
FN is disappointed not to have won any of the six Regions in which it was leading last week, but now has elected members in every Region for the first time. Yesterday, with a total of 6.8 million, it got 600 000 more votes than last week !
This Election was fought to elect Regional Councillors yet all the issues discussed were only of a National flavour. ALL the Parties now must adjust their avowed policies to increase their support in future for any elections. The fact that the next election will be the Presidential Election in May 2017, was ever present in the background.
President Hollande has had poor Opinion Polls but hopes to get the support needed to stand for a second term. If he then reaches the second round he may then face not Sarkozy, whom he defeated in 2012, but Marine Le Pen, Leader of FN !
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Saturday, 12 December 2015
FRANCE : REGIONAL ELECTIONS - WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW ?
Last Sunday the overall result revealed that the National Front (FN) had obtained 28.4% of the votes, Les Républicains (LR) 27.1% and the Socialists 23.5%. 50% of the electorate abstained from voting.
The very fact that overall FN was clearly in first place for the first time in an election, stunned LR and the Socialists. This dilemma caused a panic.
To underline the swing to FN, it obtained the lead in 6 of the 13 Regions and even got more than 40% of the vote in two of them.
Smaller parties in any Region which polled less than 5% of the votes were eliminated from the last round of voting tomorrow.
This week has seen frantic efforts by LR and the Socialists to muster the votes of electors who abstained or who had voted for parties now eliminated.
The Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls even ordered Regional socialist parties in third place to withdraw, urging electors to vote for LR against FN ! Sarkozy, however, refused to let his LR candidates to withdraw and vote for the Socialists if they were in third place !
These Regional Elections are the first after President Hollande reduced the number of Regions to 13 from 22 beforehand. They are new therefore, and local political plans have not really been the main preoccupation. National problems like Immigration, Terrorism, Unemployment, Taxation and the War against IS have been the main issues discussed.
However, many of these issues have been criticised by FN for several years ! Have LR and the Socialists paid enough attention to the worries of the electorate ? Does the answer explain the continual rise of support for FN by voters ?
The result of the first round of voting last week was a wake-up call ! After the panic this week will there be a swing back in the support from FN to LR and the Socialists ? How many Regions can FN win ? Everyone wonders, no one can be sure !
.Thursday, 10 December 2015
FRANCE : HOW WILL THE SOCIALISTS VOTE NEXT SUNDAY ?
After the first round of voting in the Regional Elections last week, the ruling Socialist party discovered not only that the National Front party (FN) had obtained the most votes, but that the Socialists were now in third place behind the Republican Party.
To stop FN winning in the final round next Sunday, Prime Minister Valls wanted the Republicans and the Socialists to agree that the weaker of the two parties in each Region should withdraw from the Election and to instruct its electors to vote against FN ! He was stopped in his tracks when Nicolas Sarkozy ordered all his candidates to refuse to withdraw.
This meant Valls could not expect any help from "the other Party" to defeat FN. However, he was not subdued ! He ordered all his Socialist parties in the Regions which were in 3rd place, to withdraw.
Everyone has withdrawn except one, 71 year old Jean-Pierre Masseret, in the East of France.
Quite a few people are surprised at what Valls has done. Is this really the spirit of Democracy ? They also ask why has FN so many electors now voting for them ? Why is Valls so worried ? Is FN as dangerous as Valls pretends ? Or do electors think the two other parties have not been doing what they expect them to do ?
Crucial worries in France, as elsewhere, are uncontrolled Immigration and Terrorism, themes which FN has criticised for years. After the Terrorist attack on "Hebdo Charley" in January 2015 nothing really changed until the recent "Bataclan" attack !
The question now is, how will all this affect the Vote next Sunday ?
PARTI SOCIALISTE : EVITER A TOUT PRIX LA VICTOIRE DU FN !
Depuis les résultats du premier tour des élections régionales, le Parti Socialiste a exigé que ses candidats arrivés en troisième position se retirent purement et simplement et a demandé avec insistance à leurs électeurs de voter pour "les Républicains". Ceci dans un unique but : battre le Front National ! A tout prix, y compris en reniant ses propres convictions. Mais cela peut il constituer un programme mobilisateur?
Tout au long de la semaine, les socialistes ont martelé que le Front National n'était pas un parti républicain. Alors encore un petit effort : interdisez le Front National et privez le peuple de crier sa désespérance et son exaspération !
DML
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FRANCE : ELECTION DEBATE A COMPLETE FLOP !
The eagerly awaited debate on TV "LCI" and Radio "RTL" in the Regional Elections between Marine Le Pen, the leader of the extreme right "National Front" (FN) party and Xavier Bertrand, a former Minister and member of Sarkozy's right wing "The Republican" party, was a complete "flop" !
To say it was a "flop" is being kind. It was a disaster ! It was a classic example of how one can let a debate get out of hand and then doing nothing to control it !
All the key requirements were present for a superb debate : two well known Politicians who this time were also opponents for the same seat, with an experienced Journalist (Marc-Olivier Fogiel) to control the debate, plus the added fear created by the steady rise of support the FN party has obtained in recent élections !
What went wrong ? Everything...
1) From the start, when one Candidate spoke, the other interrupted continuously ! Bertrand particularly never seemed to stop talking !
2) In the end both candidates were talking at the same time !
3) When a new issue was raised by either Candidate, it was immediately attacked by the other.
4) The attempts by Fogiel to control the Candidates were absent or of no effect.
5) Spectators or Listeners trying to follow the "debate" were, in the end, totally confused and frustrated !
6) One had the impression there was no "time control" of how long either candidate spoke.
A total waste of Prime Time, particularly as there will be be no other such debate this week before the last round of voting this coming Sunday !
.Tuesday, 8 December 2015
MANUEL VALLS : ENTRE HAINE ET INTOLERANCE
Manuel Valls demande expressément aux électeurs socialistes de voter pour "les Républicains" Xavier Bertrand, Christian Estrosi et Philippe Richert, dans les trois grandes régions où Le Front National est arrivé largement en tête et le Parti Socialiste en troisième position seulement.
Sa haine et son intolérance à l'égard du premier parti de France ont donc été plus fortes que ses convictions socialistes.
Mais peut on imaginer que les socialistes qui ont fait campagne contre "Les Républicains" se renient et votent pour ceux dont ils combattaient les idées la semaine passée ?
Plus digne est l'attitude de Nicolas Sarkozy qui impose la règle du "Ni Ni" : ni retrait ni fusion de listes.
DML
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