GREEK REFERENDUM : "YES" FOR MORE AUSTERITY WITHOUT DEBT WRITE-OFF ?

After five months of acrimonious talks and a lot of bickering, Tsipras, the newly elected Prime Minister of Greece has called for a Referendum to be held this coming Sunday, July 5, 2015. 

The Propositions of the EUROZONE and other Creditors, to solve the current Greek Crisis without any Debt relief will be judged and accepted or not !  Greece is now totally Bankrupt and Insolvent ! 

Tsipras was perfectly clear before his Election that he wanted to reorganise the Greek Economy and to do that he needed a significant write-down of Greek Debts by the EUROZONE.  The reduced repayments would help to provide the Financial means to permit the Greek Economy to become viable again.   He also wanted  stability for Greece and therefore wanted it to stay in the EURO and EUROZONE.

On these promises Tsipras was Elected ! 

Five months later NO DEBT RELIEF has been offered ! 

All the Talks or Negotiations have been "kind advice" of what "should be done" so that the Greek Economy would become "Financially sound and profitable again" !  
If Greeks now vote "NO" it will be because they do not want any more of the austerity that they have suffered during the last five years !  Because there is no Debt Relief, Greece will be forced out of the EUROZONE and will renounce all repayments of Financial Loans !

Creditors will lose approximately 320 Billion EUROS, and introducing a NEW and STABLE Drachma by Greece will be a painful experience !

Above all it seems the EUROZONE wanted to avoid creating a Legal or Financial precedent by writing-off  Financial loans !  It did not even want to propose any type of MORATORIUM on debt repayments to help Greece, which this Blog expected would finally be the "saving grace" of the EUROZONE !

What has now however become very clear is that not only GREECE must restructure but the EUROZONE also.  At present it is a "RAGBAG" of 19 countries, all different with their own preferred nationalistic aims.  

EUROZONE principles and rules need to be defined by an elected "Zone Board of Directors" !  This necessity too, could become another unending and sterile,"five month long" EUROZONE discussion !  

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GREECE: WHY NO MORATORIUM FOR GREECE ?

Everyone knows that Greece is BANKRUPT and cannot at present envisage repaying the loans of 320 Billion Euros it owes to the EUROZONE, or even the interest on the Loans, in the foreseeable future.

The obvious question is "Why do the EUROZONE and its BANKERS not propose a MORATORIUM of 10, 15 or 20 years to Greece ?"  

A moratorium which cancels the interest which is due and delays the repayment of the Debt, would give Greece the "breathing space" it needs to reorganise its Economy and to make it viable again.

Greece could then avoid the "Grexit", which no one really wants and then stay in the EUROZONE instead of having to adopt its former Drachma as its currency.

Mistakes were made in the past but this is not the time to hold a post mortem !  Germany and other creditors do not want to record a Financial loss but a "Provision for Exceptional Risk" should already have been booked in previous years !   This "Risk" is not an "Operating Risk" on normal operations and would not affect GNP calculations !

If Greece is forced to leave the EURO and EUROZONE it has no option but to make a hefty devaluation and revalue all its national liabilities.  This would also entail a renouncement of the EUROZONE debts ! 

This would temporarily be a painful exercise for Greeks, but it would also create a painful precedent in the EUROZONE and it could have negative reverberations on the International Money Markets ! 

Would a MORATORIUM not have been a better solution for everyone concerned ?  Would Tsipras and Greece not accept such a solution, even with some conditions ?

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UPCOMING EVENTS IN FIFA !

It is not easy to keep track of what is going on in FIFA particularly with the twin investigations into FIFA by the Swiss and USA Judicial Authorities.  However, FIFA does have meetings scheduled which are identified below.
      
A FIFA Executive Meeting will take place in Zurich on July 20, 2015.  It will probably prepare the Agenda for the Extraordinary Congress which is expected to be held in December.  It is at that Congress, probably, that the "vote of confidence" urging Blatter to continue as President and which he so dearly wants, could take place.

If Blatter wins this vote then he will remain as President.  If he does not win the vote of confidence, he has said   he will resign as President.  The Assembly will then probably agree a date (in March 2016) for the election of a New President in accordance with the FIFA rules . 

This procedure will take at least three months.  It is not clear whether Blatter himself would not also want to be a Candidate again !   FIFA is his life and there is work to be done !

SUBSEQUENT EVENTS.

The foregoing programme could easily be jeopardised by unexpected events.  The findings in the ongoing investigations into alleged irregularities in FIFA could produce surprises, particularly if more people are  suspected of irregularities !   Likewise foreseen events could also be cancelled or changed in the "FIFA World" of operations. 

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GREXIT:UN GRAND SAUT DANS L'INCONNU

 

 

 

 

 

Le "GREXIT" vu par MARIN notre caricaturiste

TSIPRAS IN FAVOUR OF A "GREXIT" !

What the EUROZONE negotiators feared most has now become a reality !  Tsipras has announced a Referendum will be held next Sunday, July 5, 2015. 

In addressing the Greek Parliament, he said that the current EUROZONE propositions should be refused.  A "NO" vote implies that Greece would be obliged to leave the EURO and EUROZONE !

This Blog in its Article (1) on June 16, 2015 clearly stated that a moratorium by the EUROZONE, of capital  repayments coupled with a cancellation of interest during 10,15 or 20 years could be a solution to save the faces of all the parties involved in the negotiations !

Through his Twitter Account, Dominique Strauss-Kahn the former President of the International Monetary Fund also suggested yesterday that a Moratorium could have been defined to arrive at a solution. 

Several recent articles in this Blog have clearly pointed out that there would be repercussions for the EUROZONE if a reasonable solution agreeable to Greece was not proposed !  

Angela Merkel and her team cannot just sweep problems like this under the carpet !

(1)  Read : " "Grexit" is the only solution left for Greece !", published June 16, 2015.

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GREECE : A LESSON IN DEMOCRACY ?

Tsipras has rejected the Plan of Financial Aid proposed by the EUROZONE and announced a Referendum on the terms of the Plan.

The Referendum will be held on Sunday, July 5 2015.   This could in fact lead to a "Grexit" !

History is almost repeating itself.  Already in 2011 the then Prime Minister Geoges Papandreou wanted a Referendum on the Financial Plan proposed by the Leaders of the Eurozone.  This led to a change of the Coalition in Greece and the Referendum, which would have been held two months later, was cancelled.

The Referendum on Sunday next week could therefore become a lesson in Democracy for the EUROZONE : it will be the Greek Electors who will decide their own future !

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BLATTER'S PRESIDENTIAL SIEGE CONTINUES !

 
Blatter has now admitted that he "did not" have, never had, any intention of resigning, as almost everyone thought, after hearing his announcement on June 2, 2015, just 4 days after his re-election as President !  He only wanted to put himself and his Office in the hands of the FIFA Congress.

Whatever he said (in French) completely fooled everyone, including the losing candidate in the "Election" on May 29, Prince Ali Bin Al-Hussein, who has said he is prepared to stand again in an Election, if he is asked !      
 
Does all this mean that the Extraordinary Meeting to be held in December 2015 must either "sack him" or "confirm Blatter as President" ?   If he is confirmed he will just carry on as President !   If he is sacked, however, could a new Election take place IMMEDIATELY ?   Would he not want to stand again as a candidate ?

Perhaps the unkindest remark of all is to question openly whether Blatter has not lost his grip on what is and was going on in FIFA ?   Now at the age of 79, after 40 years service in FIFA, is he really the best man to clean up the quagmire of mess in which FIFA now finds itself ? 

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