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Thursday, 31 May 2012

BARROSO WANTS EU & EUROZONE CONTROL OF BANKS ?


Who gave Barroso the instruction to further the objective to Controle Banks (in the EU or the EUROZONE), which would have been logically a more normal "job" for the European Central Bank ?.

Is he again "flying a kite" to test reactions ?

This time, if the paucity of information can be
understood, his idea would be to provide financial aid to Banks in the "EU" just like for other reasons in the case of Greece and other countries !!! 

To put it another way, not only countries like Greece would  be "saved" but Banks in Spain and elsewhere also would benefit !!!  But, who picks up the tab, the cost ?

In the present financial circumstances of the EU, is it a credible proposition to undertake ?  

Banks are National, International, and Intercontinental. They do what they want !!! Many have been "saved" whereas their Directors should have been imprisoned for incompetence, for trading while insolvent !!!

To want to control banks is a good idea, but to me it seems that President Barroso needs a lot more time to understand the complications.  He does not have the time before his unelected "appointment" ends !!!

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Wednesday, 30 May 2012

FRANCOIS HOLLANDE OU L'ART DE NE RIEN DIRE


Il est gentil, François Hollande, c'est même un bon garçon, simple, normal quoi.  C'est ainsi qu'il est apparu lors du vingt heures de France 2 ce mardi 29 mai.

Mais que retenir de l'interview du "Président normal"?  Peu de choses !!!  Certes, il a répété qu'il tiendra ses promesses et qu'il a 5 ans pour le faire.

S'il a réaffirmé qu'il ne s'impliquera pas dans la campagne législative, c'était pour mieux souligner immédiatement la nécessité pour les électeurs d'envoyer des députés PS à l'Assemblée Nationale.

DML

Tuesday, 29 May 2012

FRENCH GENERAL ELECTION STORIES - N° 3 (THE SARKOZY SPEECHWRITER)


Henri Guaino is the quiet, withdrawn man, unknown to the general public, but who in fact wrote the powerful speeches that former President Sarkozy delivered so convincingly during his five years in office.

His mastery of the French language was admirable and together with the confident and convincing way Sarkozy spoke, ensured that the message got through and was understood by the audience.

Henri Guaino is now, for the first time, a candidate in the General Election.  He has been parachuted into a constituency near Paris (3rd ward of the Yvelines) where Sarkozy polled 63% of the votes in the Presidentials.

In this ward there are 19 candidates !!!  Furthermore he is not a native of this area and, simply said, his confidence has taken a battering !!! He speaks well but his style is not that of a political activist !!!

He deserves his chance and it will be interesting to see how finally he reacts and whether he wins through in the end !!!

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Monday, 28 May 2012

LES CHAUSSETTES ROUGES DE FRANCOIS FILLON !!!


Tenue très remarquée de François Fillon ce samedi 26 mai, lors de la réunion des cadres de l'UMP à l'Hôtel Pullman...

Les traditionnelles chaussettes rouges de l'ancien Premier Ministre se mariaient mal avec pantalon "sport" beige et veston-cravate.

Si l'harmonie ne règne pas au sein de l'UMP, elle n'était pas non plus de mise côté vestimentaire !!!

DML

Sunday, 27 May 2012

FRENCH GENERAL ELECTION STORIES N° 2: - THE WAR OF NEW LEADERS !!!


Now that Sarkozy has lost his re-election the inevitable has already happened !!!  Those  waiting in the wings of the UMP party to seize the chance to obtain the leadership of the party, have been quick to make their ambitions publicly known !!!  The defeat of Sarkozy has left a big vacuum in the UMP party. 

The three expected candidates are Jean-François Copé, the current Secretary of the UMP Party, François Fillon, the loyal Prime Minister throughout the 5 years of the Sarkozy Presidency, and Alain Juppé, who has been Prime Minister and who has served the UMP party for many years .  He is in fact an elder statesman !!!

Both seem to want to oust Copé as Secretary of UMP to perhaps have a chance in the next "Presidentials" in 2017 !!!  Such an objective is perhaps too long terme.  There are at present other younger potential candidates in the wings !!!  They quite rightly prefer to wait a few years !!!

Copé has an election pending.  It is not clear whether he will be re-elected in Meaux where he is also the Mayor !!!

Fillon, on the other hand, has "appropriated" a safe seat in Paris !!! Juppé has decided that he does not want to stand in the General Election.

Whatever the result of the General Election, the next Assembly of the UMP party in the autumn will be very interesting !!! There are many UMP ministers who have recently lost their "jobs".


     

Saturday, 26 May 2012

CHRISTINE LAGARDE SAYS NO MORE IMF AID FOR GREECE !!!


It seems that Christine Lagarde fully understands that Germany no longer wants to participate in financing the Greek state, and, she adds, it would be better sending IMF aid to needy areas in Africa. 


This is at last some good common sense.  Greece should never have been permitted to adopt the EURO in the first place !!!


However, just two days ago, this Blog pointed out in its article "EUROZONE LEADERS STILL  PERPLEXED OVER GREECE" that as no one knows what will happen after the Greek General Election on June 17, the EU should prepare now for Humanitarian Aid to be ready for sending to Greece.

There will be chaos, tears and pain !!!  People in Greece will also be hungry and helpless !!!

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Friday, 25 May 2012

FRENCH GENERAL ELECTION STORIES - N° 1 (Melechon/Le Pen)


Two Members of the European Parliament (MEP's) are settling a personal quarrel, which was revealed recently when both were candidates in the Presidential Election when François Hollande beat Nicolas Sarkozy to become the new President of France.

Jean-Luc Melenchon (Extreme Left or Left Front), vowed to beat Marine Le Pen (National Front) into third place. Finally Marine Le Pen easily held on to the third place with 17.9% of the votes against 11.7% for Melenchon. 

During the campaign Opinion Polls regularly made them "neck to neck" !!!  This however reflects the fact that journalists in France lean heavily in favour of Socialist or left wing candidates !!!

Jean-Luc Melenchon, although beaten, still wants revenge !!! In the up-coming General Election he has chosen to stand in the very same constituency as that chosen by Marine Le Pen, namely in the Pas de Calais !!!

Melenchon is a very good speaker, one who can arouse a crowd of any size.  Le Pen has a very persuasive style and manner of speaking.  This should be a good fight !!!

.

     

Thursday, 24 May 2012

EUROZONE LEADERS STILL PERPLEXED OVER GREECE !!!

It is sad to observe that once again the EU Leaders, even with the help of their highly experienced financial advisors, have not been able to decide what must be done to solve the Greek crisis and to avert a possible EURO meltdown !!! 

Is this a typical case of "too many cooks spoil the broth" ?  If a business man, big or small, does not promptly solve the basic problems in his company, he faces dire consequences !!!  He faces bankrupcy !!!

Should Greece abandon the EURO and replace it with the New Drachma ?  The next  step would be a hefty devaluation in Greece !!!  Everyone and every country could feel the effect of such action, in particular the Greeks. 

EU Leaders cannot decide.  The result now is that the Greeks will vote on June 17, and they then will decide for themselves what they want Greece to do !!!  This will take time.

This will not be simple and without pain.  There will be riots and demonstrations and tears !!!  Since EU Leaders cannot solve the Greek problem, they should at least prepare humanitarian help for Greece.  People there will be hungry and helpless !!!

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Tuesday, 22 May 2012

PRESIDENT HOLLANDE: PREMIERS SUCCES


Les premiers déplacements internationaux du Président Hollande ont été, à la lecture de la presse française, un réel succès. François Hollande s'est comporté en "vrai Président"...Ceux qui imaginait le pire pour ces premiers contacts en sont donc pour leurs frais !!!

Le Président Hollande a même reçu un satisfecit de Laurent Fabius : "c'était un sans faute " a déclaré le Ministre Français des Affaires Etrangères!  Il est loin le temps ou le même Laurent Fabius comparait François Hollande à une "fraise des bois" !!!
Toutefois cette première semaine présidentielle a déjà mis en lumière l'art de François Hollande pour moduler et interpréter ses propres engagements. En janvier dernier, il formulait ainsi sa 59ème promesse de campagne: "J'engagerai un retrait immédiat de nos troupes d'Afghanistan.  Il n'y aura plus de troupes françaises dans ce pays à la fin de l'année 2012". Aujourd'hui, il s'adapte et limite le retrait, fin 2012, aux seules troupes combattantes !!!
DML

GENERAL ELECTION FIGHT IN FRANCE !!!


A new political fight has started in France after François Hollande became the new President.  This time it is to elect 577deputies for the National Assembly, i.e. the French Parliament.

There are 6540 candidates which is an average of 11 candidates for each seat (13 last time, five years ago). 

There are two rounds of votes, on June 10 and 17.  Those candidates who obtain 50% + one vote are elected on June 10. Those candidates who obtain less than 12.5% of the votes are eliminated.

After the first round of votes there are often as many as 350 constituencies where more than just two candidates remain.  June 11, is when the "Horse-Trading" starts !!! 

The 2, 3, or 4  major parties will often "bargain" with smaller candidates by promising them favours if they withdraw and urge their electorate to support the major party candidate.  The "carrots", or type of favours, depend on the circumstances !!!

What is really at stake for the main political parties is to obtain a working majority in the new Parliament !!!  Hence the "Horse-Trading" !!! 

The coming days promise to be particularly interesting to watch.  Will the Socialist Party, which supports President Hollande, obtain a comfotable working majority ?  Follow this Blog !!!  

Friday, 18 May 2012

IS GREECE STILL THE MAIN EURO PROBLEM ?



There is still, justifiably, a great deal of anxiety about the EURO, but is the problem still Greece ?


Greece has been bailed-out twice, banks have been recapitalized for the losses they incurred and severe budgetary conditions have been imposed on the country by the "EUROZONE".  France and Germany in particular have booked heavy losses !!!  


If the EU initially, and later the EUROZONE, had let Greece go bankrupt, Greek politicians would have had to sort out their own financial mess straight away !!!  It would have cost the EU and the EUROZONE taxpayers a lot less !!!


The first fault was that Greece produced false accounts to join the EURO:  the second fault was that no one checked the accounts !!!  The Elders of the EU at the time were asleep !!!


The third fault was to try to save Greece from Bankruptcy at all costs !!!  Why ?  


This is all history now.  What everyone must now do is to avoid repeating these same errors or faults !!! 


On the horizon we have the problems of Italy and Spain !!! The size of the financial costs to save either of these countries, in the same way as Greece, really could sink the EURO, the EUROZONE, and its taxpayers !!!  


Sarkozy has been voted out as French President; the new President, François Hollande has different ideas on the EURO crisis !!!  However, Angela Merkel has repeated that certain matters are not up "for renegotiation" !!!


That in fact, is the EURO problem !!!  Merkel, Italy and Spain !!!  Other countries could still follow !!!
.


Thursday, 17 May 2012

17 MEN AND 17 WOMEN IN THE FRENCH GOVERNMENT !!!



President Hollande and his Prime Minister have named the members of their Government, which is comprised of 17 Men and 17 Women.  This is a recognition of the Equality of the Sexes, but is it ?  There are in fact more Females than Males in France and in most countries of the World as a whole !!!  It is a very good start !!!


Only four ministers of the 34 named have previous governmental experience.  They are former Prime Minister  Laurent Fabius, Pierre Moscovici, Michel Sapin and Marylise Lebranchu.


However, the first hurdle that all these Ministers must successfully jump is to ensure their election in the upcoming Parliamentary Elections on June 10 and 17 !!!  Those not elected will lose their new job as Minister !!!


In fact President Hollande and his Prime Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault want to avoid a "Split Ticket" in the National Assembly so they can govern with a comfortable majority. 


This should not be "too" difficult because Copé, the secretary of the UMP party, has refused point blank any sort of deal with Marine Le Pen and the National Front !!! The net result is that no UMP or NF candidate will ever withdraw to in the hope that a Left Wing candidate could be beaten !!!  In good English one calls this "shooting oneself in the foot" !!!  


The Socialists already have a majority in the Senate !!!

MARTINE AUBRY NOT CHOSEN AS PRIME MINISTER !!!



Now that the new French President François Hollande has so many more new friends choosing only a few becomes delicate, an art of diplomacy in fact !!!  He has demonstrated however, that he is the boss !!!


Martine Aubry, renowned world-wide for introducing, 15 years ago, the French 35 hour working week to reduce the number of unemployed, wanted the Prime Minister's job, but when this was no longer available, refused any and all alternative "plum jobs" !!!


That Martine was not chosen is not a real surprise.  Not too long ago Martine described Hollande as being a "gutless individual".  In fact, if she had been chosen as Prime Minister, it would have been tantamount to having two "Presidents" !!!


As Prime Minister, Hollande has chosen JEAN-MARC ARYAULT.  They know each other very well.  For many years they have been seated next to each other in the National Parliament. Hollande has found someone on whom he can rely.  




   

Tuesday, 15 May 2012

EU ELECTIONS ARE NOT DEMOCRATIC !!!



Whenever there are problems in the EU or the "EUROZONE" one tries logically to find what needs to be done.  Trying to solve the problem very often brings me back to the same stumbling block.  Nothing changes in the EU even after elections in the country of an elected European Member of Parliament (MEP) !!!


In fact, the EU has its elections every 5 years come what may.  The EU, and its politicians, or "MEP's" are "untouchables" !!!  Logically, after elections in their own country, MEPs therefore no longer represent the climate of change in their country !!! 


Should MEPs not be elected at the same time when there are elections in the country they represent ?


At present, the system is totally undemocratic !!!  After the recent election of a new President of France, François Hollande, serious questions in connection with the Greek Bail out are on the table.  The EU Parliament, however, is asleep, it is aloof of such trivial questions !!!  Do not Disturb  !!!


So what is the solution ?  Change the Lisbon Treaty ? Of course, but that is another problem, A Big Problem !!!  It is probably better to remain undemocratic than to be too hasty !!!  It makes you cry !!!
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FRANCOIS HOLLANDE: UNE REPUBLIQUE EXEMPLAIRE?



"Je n'aurai pas autour de moi des personnes jugées et condamnées" avait déclaré le candidat presidentiel, François Hollande.


Or, le Président élu vient de nommer Jean-Marc Ayrault, Député Maire de Nantes, pourtant condamné pour favoritisme en 1997 à 6 mois de prison avec sursis et  30,000F (4500 euros) d'amende !!!


Déjà de "petits" arrangements avec la morale et une première nuance apportée aux engagements pris pendant la campagne présidentielle ?


Pas tout à fait puisque le maire de Nantes a bénéficié d'une réhabilitation automatique définie par l'article l'aricle L 133-11 du code pénal: sa condamnation est donc juridiquement effacée depuis février 2008.


DML

OBAMA WAS RIGHT, BUT WHAT HAS THE WORLD DONE SINCE ?



After Obama was elected  he said "Banks are too big ! " This then, in my opinion was absolutely right !!!  What Obama has managed to do in the USA since then, I cannot really judge or evaluate. At the time there was a World Financial crisis.


The situation of four years ago has not really changed !!!  Even this last week we have had the spectacle of a big bank, JP Morgan Chase making a loss of two billion dollars US because of sloppy controls !!!  In the meantime there have been other scandles which have been gently forgotten.


What I think is Governments everywhere must realize that there is a big basic difference between private banks owned by Shareholders, on the one hand, and nationalized banks 100% owned by Governments on the other hand.  


No one can stop speculators who want to "bet" to make a quick fortune !!!  Some are successful but there are no reports !!!  Others fail and its never the fault of directors !!!


Since one cannot controle private banks, governments should only ever supply cheap government "tap money" to 100% owned state banks, i.e. what could be called  "National Banks" !!! 


If a government wants to encourage investments in specific areas with cheap loans, be it private housing, in industry etc would private banks be prepared to loan money at low interest rates ?  I fear not, you need a government backed bank for such risks !!!

Saturday, 12 May 2012

MELENCHON-LE PEN: LE SPECTACLE CONTINUE !!!



Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidat malheureux à L'élection Présidentielle (11% des suffrages), a décidé de se presenter aux Elections Législatives à HENIN BEAUMONT, Pas de Calais, et d'affronter ainsi Marine Le Pen (17.9% des suffrages aux Présidentielles) dans son "Fief".


Sénateur de l'Essonne, puis élu Député Européen dans la circonscription sud-ouest en  2009, Jean-Luc Mélenchon entend sans doute poursuivre le spectacle de bateleur dont il nous a gratifié pendant sa campagne Présidentielle.


Pas certain que ses bouffonneries mêlées d'insultes et d'injures suffisent à lui assurer la victoire !!!


DML

UMP REFUSE FN HELP AND SARKOZY LOSES RE-ELECTION



The recent Presidential Election saw Sarkozy beaten by 3.36% of the votes by the Socialist François Hollande who benefitted from the help of votes from other left-wing Parties.


Sarkozy had the solid help of his UMP party, but its secretary, Jean-François Copé refused point blank, to make any deal with the National Front Party (extreme Right) !!!  Their Leader, Marine Le Pen, had polled (17.9%) of the votes (or 6.4 million) and had come 3rd.


This was a repeat of what had happened in previous elections.  Then the NF had a less desireable political program.  Marine Le Pen has since changed the image of the party completely and envisages changing its name in the near future.  Objectives in her election program were also included in Sarkozy's manifesto !!!  


The obstinacy of Copé and UMP not to collaborate with FN and Marine Le Pen led directly to her announcing that she would abstain from voting, and she invited her electors to do the same or to vote for the candidate they considered the most suitable.


Sarkozy lost his re-election by 3.36% of the votes. 

Thursday, 10 May 2012

PREMIERE DAME DE FRANCE: LE MODELE ALLEMAND



Depuis lundi 7 mai, chacun s'interroge sur le statut de la nouvelle "Première Dame" compagne, ni pacsée ni mariée,  de François Hollande.


Pour régler les questions protocolaires qui ne manqueront pas de se poser, la France pourra toujours, en ce domaine comme en d'autres, s'inspirer du modèle  allemand. 


En effet, le Président de la République Fédérale d'Allemagne depuis 2012, lui aussi père de quatre enfants et séparé, vit depuis 2000 avec Daniela Schadt, une journaliste politique de vingt ans sa cadette.


DML

WHAT MERKEL DOES NOT REALIZE !!!



What Merkel does not seem to grasp is that in France President Sarkozy has lost his re-election and he has been replaced by a Socialist President with the name of Hollande.


One of the main reasons why Hollande won was because the French National Debt rose by 500 Billion Euros during the last five years when Sarkozy was President !!!


Merkel, Barroso the President of the EU Commission, and others all hammer home the same message that "nothing is renegotiable" !!! 


Publicly President Hollande has not yet uttered a single word in anger !!!   Europe, however is right to think that Hollande might be a new, hard headed stumbling block in the EU !!! 


If all of this is true today, could similar problems not arise  next year if Merkel is not re-elected ?  Are all Germans really happy to foot the cost of supporting the EURO, and Greece and who knows what other insolvent countries ? 


Would Germans not prefer to have the "Deutsche Mark" as their currency ?  Already the Greeks now would prefer a "new Drachma" to avoid  more budget cuts being imposed by the "EUROZONE" !!! 


In view of the pending problems in Spain and Italy, two countries which are each much bigger than Greece, is it really true that nothing is renegotiable ? 
.

Wednesday, 9 May 2012

EUROZONE FEARS GREEK TURMOIL



The reactions in Greece are completely normal !!!  Who would want to accept the stringent Budget cuts which the "EUROZONE" is now imposing ?


The original fault in all this goes back to when the political leaders of Greece produced false accounts to get into the EU !!!  The then EU leaders never really audited the figures presented to them, but were only too happy to welcome Greece into the EU or "EUROCLUB" !!!


Now Greece is in turmoil.  No one wants to accept cuts in their living standards, on which the "EUROZONE COUNTRIES" insist, in spite of the fact that the EU has made loans of 230 billion Euros to Greece, and then written them off !!!  


Who paid the costs of these write-offs ?  To be blunt, essentially Germany and France and other EU countries !!!  Merkel of Germany and Sarkozy of France,  led this  rescue of the Greek Economy !!! 


Alas, Sarkozy was  voted out of power in the French Presidential Elections last Sunday !!! François Hollande, the new President does not appear to have the same  point of view as Sarkozy on the Greek problem.


What will Greece and the "EUROZONE" now do ?  Nothing is clear, but to ditch (abandon) the EURO is not simple.  A new Drachma currency must be readily available !!!   Is it already available ?  Have the coins and banknotes already been materialized ? I fear not !!!


With no stable Coalition possible, new elections in Greece can be expected.  Will they be held on the 17th of June ?         


   


  

Monday, 7 May 2012

2012 FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL RESULT



The official results as of to-day are the following:
                                             % of        number  
                                            votes       of votes
François HOLLANDE     51.68 %  17 791 436


Nicolas   SARKOZY        48.32 %  16 663 211


The details of these official results could vary for technical reasons, but could never change the Final Result !!!  Hollande is the new 7th President of France in accordance with the Constitution of the Fifth Republic.


The battle for the new President Hollande now begins !!!   In the coming days he must form a Government, name the new Prime Minister, who will then have to face a General Election on June 10 with a second round on June 17.


The beaten Opposition, which supported Sarkozy, the former President, will also have to reorganize.  Will they be prepared to engage in talks with the National Front ?  Nothing at all is certain.


If the UMP Party, which supported Sarkozy wants to fight the left, the Socialists, they must reach an agreement with  the National Front !!!  Otherwise Hollande will also get  controle of the National Assembly (Parliament).  There will be no split ticket !!! 


One must await developments in the coming days before any more useful comments can be made.     

Sunday, 6 May 2012

FRANCOIS HOLLANDE:LA VICTOIRE CONFIRMEE

 
1er président socialiste de la république française depuis 17 ans, François Hollande a donc confirmé les résultats des sondages qui le donnaient favori face à un Nicolas Sarkozy confiant et en progression dans l'opinion publique.


Le rideau est donc tombé sur les présidentielles mais la pièce n'est  pas  pour autant terminée : le deuxième acte se jouera les 10 et 17 juin prochain lors des élections législatives.


Marine Le Pen compte présenter des candidats dans la quasi totalité des circonscriptions.  En cas de triangulaires au deuxième tour, l'UMP a déjà annoncé que le parti ne se désistera pas en faveur d'un candidat FN.


Si la dynamique de gauche se confirme aux législatives, l'UMP pourra se glorifier d'y avoir participé et de contribuer  à la réalisation des "catastrophes" annoncées par Nicolas Sarkozy lors de son dernier meeting: anéantissement du nucléaire, refus de la règle d'or, droit de vote pour les étrangers aux élections locales (les plus importantes après les présidentielles), retour à la retraite à 60 ans...


DML

DAVID CAMERON MUST KNOW !!!



Whatever the result of the French Presidential Election to-day, the consequences for the EU will be enormous for two simple reasons:


    1)  Will the "EUROZONE" and its existence be confirmed ?
    2)  Will the next French President not want to change the Treaties which govern the EU ? (Lisbon etc )


Furthermore, will Merkel, who has German elections coming up in 2013, still want to apply the same principles to save "Spain" (and other countries) if Greece decides to leave the EURO and "defaults" after its elections to-day ?  To adopt the Drachma again would be a good way to wipe their slate clean !!!


The enormous cost of maintaining current policies and then bailing out Italy and Spain as well, could be prohibitive for the EUROZONE !!!    


David Cameron would do well to bide his time.  Let the dust settle after the local elections in Britain and also the elections in Europe !!!  What EU burocrats then want will become a lot clearer !!! The costs also will become clear !!!







IS THE ENGLISH F.A. MONEY MAD ?



The basic rule in sport is that the playing field must be level !!!  This applies to all sports !!!  All competitors must, or at least, should be, treated equally !!!


How is it justifiable, to-day, to make Manchester City play their match before Manchester United kick off ?  Is it because both matches "must" gross the maximum income from television ?


There are also relegation battles to-day !!!  The same principle should apply.  No team, at any level, should know before the start or before the end of a game, the score or result, of a direct competitor, at least in football !!!


For example, would it be impossible to revert to the old principles and oblige all teams to play at the same time during, either important end of season matches, or the last three matches of the season ?


If this is not possible, the obvious question is "Has the English Football Association really gone completely money mad ?" 










  

Friday, 4 May 2012

"ME, PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC"



The ranting monologue with which François Hollande concluded his face to face debate with Nicolas Sarkozy on the television was remarkable and memorable.


Repeated 16 times, the phrase "Me, the President of the Republic" seems to come straight out of the method of auto-suggestion which would not have been disapproved of by Dr Coué.


P.S. Memo for younger readers:  Dr Emile Coué (1857 - 1926) was an eminent French psychiatrist and pharmacist, well known in Europe and the USA. (He met President Calvin Coolidge in 1923.) He was at the origin of the theory of "auto-suggestion":  "All ideas engraved in our memory could become reality if and when possible".  


We shall have to wait until after the vote this Sunday, May 6, 2012.  Will Hollande then be elected ?  

Thursday, 3 May 2012

SARKOZY AND HOLLANDE ; A PUNCHY DEBATE !!!



20 million people watched a "no holds barred" debate between outgoing President Sarkozy and his socialist challenger, François Hollande.


During the first few exchanges, Hollande took what came, but he then became more combative.  He was faced by a Sarkozy who was his usual self, a man who knows all the aspects of any problem on which he is questioned.  In the end Hollande also revealed he was on top of the problems which came up for debate.


In my opinion, the tactic which Hollande adopted, when he was in difficulty, was to interrupt repeatedly when  Sarkozy was speaking !!!  Sarkozy was more relaxed !!!


Whatever the case may be, the real, ultimate, question is who "won" ?


The debate was at a very high level.  The amount of detail revealed by each candidate to support what he was saying was at times too technical for even highly educated television watchers to be able to absorb !!!


This fact is perhaps revealing of whether either candidate managed to convince any "floating" voters !!!


Sarkozy needed to convince FN voters and Bayrou voters (Modern Democrats) to join his rally for his re-election.  He certainly convinced some but perhaps not enough to save his skin !!!


The voters on the Left, however, could never be pursuaded to change their voting habits if they do not understand the message Sarkozy was trying to get across last night !!!  They will again vote for Hollande.


On the whole, the impression now is that Hollande will  become the new President of France on Sunday, May 6, 2012 !!!     



"MOI PRESIDENT DE LA REPUBLIQUE"...



La tirade de François Hollande déclamée en conclusion du débat avec Nicolas Sarkozy a été particulièrement remarquée.


Prononcé à 16 reprises, ce "moi Président de la République" semblait relever d'une méthode d'auto persuasion que n'aurait pas désavoué le docteur Coué!


P.S.  A l'attention des plus jeunes: Le docteur Coué, décédé en 1926, est à l'origine de la méthode qui considère que "toute idée qui se grave dans notre esprit tend à devenir une réalité dans l'ordre du possible".


DML

Wednesday, 2 May 2012

COMMENT SE DETERMINERONT LES 6.4 MILLIONS D'ELECTEURS DU FN ?.


Le débat télévisé entre Nicolas Sarkozy et François Hollande qui a lieu ce mercredi soir, permettra-t-il aux électeurs du Front National de se déterminer en faveur de l'un ou l'autre des deux candidats ?


Comme prévu, Marine Le Pen n'a pas donné de consignes de vote, précisant que pour sa part, elle votera blanc...
Elle a ironisé sur "la danse du ventre" à laquelle se livrent les deux candidats pour séduire les 6 400 000 électeurs qui ont voté FN.


Dernière illustration de cette opération séduction: Gerard Longuet, Ministre de la Défense (excusez du peu) a affirmé qu'il voyait en Marine Le Pen un "interlocuteur possible" !!!


Las!  Ce pas en avant a été suivi d'un grand saut en arrière:  Jean François Copé, patron de l'UMP, s'est empressé de déclarer qu'il n'y aura jamais d'alliance avec l'extrême droite. 


 Ces "maladresses " successives ne risquent elles pas de  faire échec à la réélection de Nicolas Sarkozy ?  Mais en cas d'échec de son candidat, l'UMP aura au moins la satisfaction de ne pas avoir perdu son âme !!!


DML

MARINE LE PEN WILL NOT VOTE FOR HOLLANDE OR SARKOZY !!!


The latest indications this morning are that Hollande still has a comfortable lead over Sarkozy, but one must now await the Face to Face Debate on major issues on French Television this evening (at 21 hours French Time on TF1, TF2 or BFM).


This debate promises to be "historic" and lively, before  20 million French television spectators.


Marine Le Pen has said she will vote for neither candidate, Sarkozy or Hollande and urges FN electors to vote freely for the Presidential Candidate they consider is best, or to vote blank as she intends to do !!! This is the reply to Nicolas Sarkozy who, last week refused clearly to withdraw UMP candidates in favour of FN candidates when the latter are more favourably placed after the first week of voting, i.e. the 17th of June, in the General Election !!!


Both Hollande and Sarkozy have also said that they were prepared to introduce a small dose of "proportional" voting.  As Sarkozy said it is not normal that a party that has 6 million voters (18%) is not represented in Parliament !!!  Alas the earliest any new law will be able to be used , would be in 2017, unless there is an anticipated General Election !!!



DSK PLEA OF "DIPLOMATIC IMMUNITY" REJECTED !!!



A defence plea of "Diplomatic Immunity" in a case of sexual aggression was yesterday rejected by the court in a civil law case between DSK and Nafissatou Diallo in New York.  The court ruled that sexual aggression was not covered by the immunity to which DSK was entitled under his conract with the IMF (International Monetary Fund).  


Diplomatic immunity had also been invoked by the Defence in the criminal legal proceedings against DKS, but the case was not proceeded with because the main prosecution witness, Nafissatou Diallo, was deemed to be  unreliable !!!  


This decision should be welcomed as it helps define the limits of Diplomatic Immunity.  Diplomats need help to protect them in some circumstances, but do they need help or protection when they are the aggressive party ? 


The ultimate hearing of the case may not take place before two or three years, which leaves enough time for the parties to agree a financial settlement.  Would DSK want all the publicity that such a case would attract ?  Very certainly not !!!