POLITICAL TENSIONS PROMISED IN MAY 2014 !

The main political events which are anxiously awaited in the coming month are;

     1)  - The May Day Military Processions in many countries, particularly in the Red Square of Moscow where Putin will present the might of Russia !

     2)  - The eastern Ukrainian industrial town of Donetsk wanted to vote on 11 May 2014 to join Russia.  After the euphorie of "Red Square" will Putin grant this wish ? If he does, how will the Western Powers react ?

    3)  - Will Putin also "invite" other former satellite countries on the borders of Russia to become part of Russia, like Crimea ?

   4)  - Ukraine will vote on 25 May 2014 to elect a new President.  Will this be a peaceful Election ?

   5)  - In the week ending on Sunday 25 May 2014, EU Parliamentary Elections will take place in all EU Member Countries. 

Will the expected swings to Far Right Nationalist Parties take place ?  Will  migration and immigration be a leading issue ? 

Compared with previous EU elections which were generally very calm, this time debates could be more than just lively in many countries.

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PUTIN'S BIG SOFT SPOT IS FINANCIAL !

Putin knows Russia has weak spots but the West must now act to exploit them. 

A few weeks ago the winter was still very cold and the Siberian gas supplied by Russia to many countries in Europe was a basic necessity for heating purposes.

Spring has now arrived; this changes many things. Russia and Putin now urgently need and want to be paid for gas already delivered.  Not only that, they now want payments on account before future deliveries.  

This reveals the big soft spot !  The reality is that the Russian Rouble and the Ukrainian Hryvnia are both very soft currencies and both countries are on the verge of Bankruptcy !  

Putin is Sabre Rattling with Russian army exercices on the border with Ukraine, over-flying Ukrainian airspace, and threatening an invasion of Ukraine to protect Russian ethnic citizens.   Is Putin not at the same time also fanning the revolt by these Russians in Ukraine ?   

Should the Western allies, in retribution against Putin's stubberness to recognise International Laws, not agree to impose a moratorium on all financial payments to Russia and to Ukraine ?  Putin must be made to see reason !

There are too many consequences to list them all here.  For example, the Rouble and the Hryvnia would collapse.  Ukraine would probably need a supply of "Free Food Parcels" to survive !  Next winter the West may still need Russian Gas !

The Western Powers must not just talk but instead must decide to act !  Now is the time !

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CLEGG ATTACKS THE QUEEN'S CONSTITUTIONAL ROLE !

It is preposterous for Nick Clegg, as Deputy Prime Minister, who has sworn allegence to the Queen, to suggest that she should be relieved of her constitutional function as Head of the Church of England.

Has the Queen not performed this function as everyone expects, or is Mr Clegg just looking for publicity to enhance his personal image ?   Is this really what the senior Privy Councillor to the Queen should be proposing ?  Did he forewarn the Queen of his ideas ?

Other religions in Britain, Islam for example, would  welcome such a move.  The next move would perhaps be that Britain should elect a President !  Clegg's suggestion only opens the door to instability !

 

The best solution would be to name a new Deputy Prime Minister ! 

 

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PUTIN DREAMS OF RESTORING RUSSIA'S GREATNESS !

Putin has been instructed by the Russian Parliament to do whatever is necessary to protect Russia and its Russian citizens.  For him this has become a divine mission and is now his dream !

The fact that Russia is a member of the UN, like almost every other country in the World, is of secondary importance and is not a handicap !  Russia has a Veto but also an inalienable right to protect its interests.

One could call this "Pan Russianism" and this is something which history has already encountered. Hitler in Germany just before the second World War also wanted "Pan Germanism" and annexed Austria and Sudetenland, the latter after the Munich Agreement in 1938 !

Then as now, all Diplomats only wanted to avert the possibility of another World War !  How long will it be before Putin will decide he must protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine ?  The only hope is that the UN is requested by Ukraine to send an International Peace Keeping Force into the country to restore order.

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FARAGE AND SALMOND : HOW TO CONVINCE THE VOTERS !

When there is a General Election, 75% of the votes usually go to the Left, Right or Center Parties;  they are the hard core which always votes the same way.  The other 25% are "floating" voters who can be pursuaded to change from how they voted last time.  They can often unseat a Government.

Farage has his project that Britain should leave the EU;  Salmond's project seeks Scottish Independence ! Both need to attract the voters to support their new project, but neither can really count on the hardcore 75% of habitual voters.  These they must attract with solid facts, figures and arguments to make them vote for their plans.

This also implies that all the "Pros and Cons" of their Projects have been examined and the Financial consequences have been highlighted in a Statement. The key information voters want is to know how they will be hit in the Pocket !

Really, the facts and figures of each Project should be verified by impartial Auditors and their report should be published !  Have Farage and Salmond done this ?

Nigel Farage is desperate for Britain to leave the EU.  His main fear is the Uncontrolled Migration and Immigration in the EU and into Britain.   But, has he weighed all the other consequences ?  For example, if Britain leaves the EU, how will the Balance of Trade with the EU be affected ?  Has he published these risks in a Statement ?

Alex Salmond seeks a vote for Scottish Independence !  He has made many enquieries but has he raised and explained ALL the problems ?   Has he detailed all the Assets AND Liabilities which Scotland will or will not accept ?   Has Westminster agreed the figures in his project ?  Will Scotland really be allowed to keep the English Pound Sterling as its currency ?

The EU Elections are next month.  The referendum on Scottish Independence is in September 2014 !  The deadlines are approaching !

For each project voters must be convinced to vote for what is proposed.  If a voter is not convinced, would it not be better to vote against the proposed project to avoid being remorseful later ?  There will always be a time for a another vote in a few years time !

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WHAT ARE PUTIN'S ULTIMATE AIMS ?

When President Putin speaks one must carefully listen to what he says, but, at the same time one must not forget what he has said on previous occasions, and, one must be conscious of what he did not want to say this time ! 

Putin was worried about events in Ukraine and called for a Diplomatic Conference, which was held in Geneva on Thursday, 17 April 2014.   All sides signed the Official Communiqué, which stipulated that Protestors in Ukraine should disarm and disband.  Two days later three Russians were killed in cross-fire in the Donetsz region.

Putin is again worried !  The Russian Parliament has authorised him to do what is necessary to preserve Russian interests but he has said he does not want to use force in Ukraine !  There are however about 40 000 troops on the Russian side of the border with Ukraine completing Military Exercices !  Should one imagine that they are merely preparing for the the May Day festivities in Red Square and that Russia is much too small to have anywhere else for its army to prepare ?

Perhaps another possibility is that Putin, who managed to protect the Russian Navy by annexing Crimea in a bloodless coup, now wants to annex the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in East Ukraine where 60% of the population is ethnic Russian but also where most of the  Ukrainian factories are to be found !  Their biggest customer at present is Russia !   The interim Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, seems to be of this opinion !

There is perhaps a further aim on the "Putin Horizon".  The Ukrainian Presidential Elections are scheduled to take place on  Sunday, May 25, 2014.  This is also the last day for all the EU Parliamentary elections when the whole of Europe will be preoccupied with the results !  

Can one be sure that Putin or Russia will remain calm ?  Or will Ethnic Russians clamour for their "Mother country" and prevent the Presidential Election in  Ukraine to be held peacefully ?

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ELECTIONS EUROPEENNES , MODE D'EMPLOI

Le 25 mai prochain, auront lieu en France les élections européennes.  Un petit quiz réalisé auprès d'amis proches m'a permis de constater qu'à un mois des élections, les modalités du vote étaient encore mal connues !

Pour eux mais pas seulement, voici donc un petit rappel des règles en vigueur...

  -   La France élira 74 députés européens sur 751 députés que compte le Parlement.  Les Etats membres sont représentés de manière dégressivement proportionnelle; un Etat ne peut avoir plus de 96 députés, c'est le cas de l'Allemagne, ni moins de 6, Malte ou le Luxembourg par exemple.

  -   En France, le cadre des élections est la circonscription interrégionale; il y en a 8 au total, 7 pour la métropole et 1 pour l'Outre- Mer.  Les 74 sièges à pourvoir sont répartis entre les 8 circonscriptions proportionnellement à leur population.  Par exemple, la circonscription Ile de France (étendue aux français domiciliés hors de France) a droit à 15 sièges et celle du massif Central (Auvergne, Limousin et Centre) a droit à 5 sièges.

  -   L'élection a lieu au scrutin de liste, à la représentation proportionnelle à un tour suivant la règle de la plus forte moyenne sans panachage ni vote préférentiel. En clair, on choisit une liste sur laquelle on ne peut rayer aucun nom ni changer l'ordre.

Pour être admise à la répartition des sièges, la liste doit avoir obtenu au moins 5% des voix.

DML