President Hollande has had a dismal time during recent weeks and he will face his "Judgement Day" on Tuesday, September 16, when the Valls Government will ask for a vote of confidence in the National Assembly.
To be very frank, this vote will judge President Hollande and his close political allies, not really Valls for his two Cabinets which have only carried out the Program dictated by the President.
The efforts made by Valls to hold together the Socialist Party have been admirable and much appreciated by Socialist stalwart supporters. The President, alas, has been completely nonplussed by all the problems he has encountered since his election in May 2012 !
He has dithered in the face of rising unemployment, raised taxes and abandoned all his election promises.
During the last six months Growth has been zero, but revised forecasts for 2014 are now O,4 %: even this appears to be optimistic ! Added to this, he sacked his former Mistress who has just published an unflattering book about their 8 year "Relationship", (which in fact does not reflect too well on her either) ! This was followed by the sacking of a new Government Minister after 9 days in office, because he was guilty of not paying his taxes during the last 3 years ! To cap all that Personal Opinion Polls for the President have been more than just a disaster !
What will happen next ? Everyone is now speculating !
Will Valls obtain a vote of confidence in the Assembly ? This is not at all a certainty ! The Socialist Party alone (without any Coalition help) has a majority of just one MP but several left-wingers are fleeing ! Most of the small Coalition parties have already withdrawn !
What can Hollande do if the vote of confidence is lost ? He has no other choice but to order a General Election because opposition Leaders have already said they would refuse to work in a Coalition with the Socialists !
One thing is certain: President Hollande will not resign !
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